[size=38]An American source: The government of Iraq oscillates between Washington and Tehran...and Al-Sudani is on the list of Iran's allies[/size]
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February 11, 2023[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]
Baghdad / Obelisk: David Schenker, a researcher at the Washington Institute, believes that the government of Iraqi Prime Minister Muhammad al-Sudani depends on the swinging balance between Tehran and Washington.
Schenker said it was too early to write off the Iraqi prime minister as allied with Iran, but he is following a path familiar to Iraqi governments, doing the bare minimum necessary to prevent a deterioration in relations with Washington while satisfying the ambitions of his Iranian-backed partners.
On January 16, Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani hosted talks with the US National Security Council coordinator for Middle East and North Africa affairs, Brett McGurk.
Soon after, it was reported that he hosted the commander of the “Quds Force” of the Iranian “Islamic Revolutionary Guard”, Ismail Qaani.
The succession of these two meetings highlights the swinging balance that the new prime minister has been balancing for nearly 100 days since the start of his term.
Schenker believes that, given that Al-Sudani came to office with the support of the parliamentary coalition allied with Iran and known as the “Coordinating Framework”, it is still unclear whether he is committed to an independent Iraq with strong ties to the United States or follows in the footsteps of many who preceded him, which is Appease Washington while quietly positioning Baghdad on Tehran's side. It can be said that the initial indications are not promising.
Since the death of Qaani's predecessor, Qassem Soleimani, in January 2020, the presence of US military forces has become somewhat of a litmus test for Iraqi politicians.
In the aftermath of the American operation that killed Soleimani and Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis during their meeting in Baghdad, the House of Representatives issued a non-binding resolution that demanded the immediate withdrawal of American forces. Despite the reduction and strengthening of the deployment, and its formal transition from a combat role to an advisory role, there are still about 2,500 US soldiers on Iraqi soil.
It is not surprising that some factions of the "coordinating framework" continue to oppose this presence openly. More recently, the head of the Fatah coalition, Hadi al-Amiri, publicly reiterated his long-standing demand for a complete US military departure.
But Al-Sudani seems resolute on this issue at least. In a January 15 interview with The Wall Street Journal, he called for the continued presence of US forces to ensure the enduring defeat of ISIS.
Al-Swadani may not please his coalition partners with his support for the “strategic framework agreement” between the United States and Iraq, which provides for the presence of American forces “at the request” and “invitation” of the Iraqi government, but he may be able to continue to deflect attention from this issue at all costs. near term.
Here it should be noted that this position may depend on two conditions, first: that the Sudanese government work to determine a budget that provides sufficient sponsorship for the Coordination Framework coalition, and second: that Iran and its Iraqi partners are ready to accept the American presence.
The Iranian Foreign Ministry sent a delegation to Baghdad.
Its stated aim was to pressure Sudani into describing the late commander Soleimani as an “official guest” at the time of his death, a ploy that would give Tehran greater leverage to wage a “legal war” against Washington. This request is considered a test for al-Sudani, who seems to understand that yielding to Tehran in this regard will complicate relations with the United States and reduce its economic and security benefits.
So far, the prime minister has condemned the targeted killing of Soleimani as a "flagrant violation of Iraqi territory and Iraqi sovereignty," but he has yet to fulfill Tehran's request that he be an "official guest" or formally agree to the establishment of a joint court with Iran to internationalize the issue. Notably, al-Sudani's coalition partners consider Soleimani a martyred hero, so they will likely continue to pressure him either way.
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