International report: Oil and gas are the mainstay in the Middle East until 2050
[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]
Economy News _ Baghdad
Views 83
Added 02/12/2023 - 11:54 AM
Updated 2023/02/12 - 1:36 PM
[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]
[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]
[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]
Economy News _ Baghdad
A report issued by the Center for Strategic and International Studies reduces expectations that have increased in intensity in recent years regarding the decline in dependence on oil and gas and the threat that this may pose to the Middle East and North Africa, whose economies depend mainly on energy exports.
Studies indicate that talk of an imminent end to the era of oil and gas, in light of pressures to reduce reliance on traditional energy sources in order to combat global warming, are nothing but mere estimates that are irrelevant to reality, pointing out that oil and gas are still the basis of the economies of the countries of the Middle East and North Africa.
Anthony Cordesman, who chairs the Arleigh Burke Chair in Strategic Affairs at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, issued a report on the strategic importance of the Middle East and North Africa region, entitled “Strengths and Limits of Oil and Gas Wealth in the Middle East and North Africa Region and the Challenge of Climate Change.”
In one aspect, the report examines estimates of future demand for oil and gas in the Middle East and North Africa region and explains that current trends in the global economy require increased use of oil and gas exports from the Middle East and North Africa region until at least 2050, especially in Asia and the least developed countries outside the Organization. Economic cooperation and development.
Projections for the future use of oil and gas and imports, which do not include reductions in the use of fossil fuels to deal with global warming, show a significant shift in the flow of oil and gas exports in the Middle East and North Africa to meet the growing demand for energy in developing countries such as India, and similar increases in oil and gas exports with the aim of Allowing major developed countries such as China, Japan and South Korea to reduce their dependence on coal. It also shows a shift towards increasing the use of natural gas imports to reduce the use of oil. Estimates of these shifts suggest that this could significantly increase total Asian demand for oil and gas exports through 2050.
Part of the analysis sheds light on a major issue shaping the future of the Middle East and North Africa region during the period from 2023 to 2050.
He explains that current climate change projections raise important questions about the future use of fossil fuels, which remain one of the main sources of commercial income and wealth in the region. There are significant uncertainties in most aspects of estimates of the impact of global warming and its impact on oil and gas exports in the Middle East and North Africa region.
greenhouse effect resistance
Some estimates of future demand for oil and gas also adopt a “business as usual” approach to global economic development, which assumes that efforts to limit global warming will remain relatively limited.
Estimates predict that importing countries will not reduce their oil and gas imports to reach the limited level of demand for fossil fuels called for by current national and regional policies.
And the forecasts of the International Energy Agency's bodies highlight that efforts to reduce the effects of global warming until 2050 will require massive reductions in demand for oil and gas.
This may have an equally significant impact on the demand for oil and gas exports in the Middle East and North Africa region and the economies of the main exporting countries and force them to radically change and diversify their economies and invest enough of their export revenues before the occurrence of such reductions to be a major and permanent source of income.
But such an impact on MENA exports is uncertain.
The International Energy Agency expects that developed countries, such as the United States and members of the European Union, will reduce the use of fossil fuels thanks to their superior ability to invest in renewable energy sources and other alternative fuels and use energy more efficiently in developing their economies. Accordingly, it appears that the reduction of oil and gas exports in the Middle East and North Africa region is limited due to the continued demand from less developed Asian countries and other developing countries.
Another set of major changes in the strategic role and importance of the Middle East and North Africa region may be driven by the increasing strategic confrontations between major powers. The war in Ukraine is a case in point. And it had a significant impact on Russian oil and gas exports, which could lead to long-term radical shifts in the nature of European imports and Russian oil and gas exports that affect the exports of the Middle East and North Africa region. It may also cause permanent European reductions in dependence on exports coming from Moscow and Russia's shifting of its gas exports to China or to new countries such as Turkey.
At the same time, governments remain in a state of competition to meet needs through government spending between the United States, the European Union, and other European countries (and in countries such as Japan, South Korea, and China), which could place significant restrictions on such investments in new energy supplies and the facilities associated with their production.
China influence
The strategic competition (or confrontation) between China and the United States and its main strategic partners is another major area that may lead to competition for strategic influence to control oil and gas exports in the Middle East and North Africa region, and this may contribute to provoking serious confrontations between China and other countries affecting the flow of oil. Energy exports across the Middle East and North Africa region, and export flows across the Indian and Pacific Oceans. It may also lead to an increase in Chinese demand for Russian oil and gas exports as an alternative to relying on fragile shipping routes through the Indian Ocean, the Malacca Strait and the Pacific Ocean, in addition to a more intense competition between China and competing powers for influence over exporting countries from the Middle East and North Africa, and arms sales in the Middle East. region, security relations and the establishment of military bases.
Meanwhile, other estimates ignore the impact of climate change or show that China's current national policies fall short of the threshold needed to stop global warming. Other projections still ignore the impact of climate change and focus on economic development in ways that point to sharp increases in oil and gas exports to major parts of the developing world. These projections are also affected by major uncertainties in the pace and impact of climate change.
Cordesman is skeptical of predictions that the United States will be less dependent on oil and gas flows from the Middle East and North Africa.
The US economy depends on global oil and gas prices, as the US prices its own fuel at global levels during emergency energy crises. More importantly, the US economy depends on importing manufactured goods from oil and gas importing countries in Europe and Asia. The current data on the general trade balance of the United States shows that the total American dependence on all types of oil and imports makes the country now indirectly dependent on the flow of Middle East and North African exports to the United States' trading partners, unlike in the past when it was dependent on oil imports. direct gas to the United States.
However, this situation could change radically if the United States pumped a huge investment in alternative fuels, other sources of energy, energy efficiency, and conservation of available resources to reduce its emissions and the extent of its impact on global warming. The International Energy Agency listed these assumptions in its World Energy Outlook 2022, but they are highly uncertain.
The United States faces political challenges, problems related to inflation and other economic crises, and government spending needs that can cause significant investment constraints.
Views 83
Added 02/12/2023 - 11:54 AM
Updated 2023/02/12 - 1:36 PM
[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]
» Postponing the parliament session to vote on the budget to this date
» 90% of it went abroad.. The Central Bank of Iraq sells more than 205 million dollars during today's
» The Ministry of Environment announces the launch of sustainable solutions to confront the climate cr
» Militia Man & Crew patron-only new video: "Two Sides of the Story"
» Parliamentary Finance details the revenues of Kurdistan's oil exports within 365 days.. How was the
» An economist explains a mechanism to shorten registration on new cities
» Al-Sudani: The budget amendments are political, not technical, and this is about voting on them
» Almost Final Confirmation From The Framework About The Budget Pass Session.. Will We Witness A Vote?
» Parliament’s Finances Reveal The Fate Of Kurdistan’s Budget Amendments.. “The Agreement Has Been Ach
» Legal expert: Passing the budget without taking into account the decisions of the Federal Court will
» Al-Zajrawi: Transferring 6 trillion dinars to support the investment budget of the governorates and
» Barzani's advisor: The regional government is not a caretaker
» Move to reconsider granting investment licenses.. What is the fate of malls and residential complexe
» Dollar prices fell against the dinar in Baghdad and Erbil
» Central Iraqi sales decreased by 11% in today's auction
» "Manipulation and speculation".. Economists attribute the dollar's rise in the parallel market to "n
» Dollar exchange rates in the local markets
» Al-Abadi's coalition reveals the secrets of the agreement between the coordination framework and Bar
» US Ambassador Romanowski urges the Kurdistan Regional Administration to hold urgent elections
» Sunnis and Kurds announce their positions on the budget voting session
» Al-Alaq confirms that the Central Bank of Iraq is serious about supporting the small and medium ente
» Emir of Qatar in Baghdad soon
» Securities expect a decline in the price of the dollar after the approval of the budget
» Iraq and Switzerland are looking to build partnerships in the financial and economic sectors
» The Central Bank hints at the possibility of canceling some fines on banks
» Preventing the leveling of agricultural lands to widen the streets
» Iraq lays the first building block in building an advanced digital health system
» Parliamentary Energy: The next two years will witness the end of the electricity crisis
» Up to 150 million dinars.. Al-Rafidain launches construction loans for employees
» Chambers of Commerce identify three reasons behind the rise in the exchange rate of the dollar in th
» A statement from the Dawa Party regarding al-Maliki's connection to accounts that "offend the audito
» The framework ends a "long meeting" and heralds the approval of the most important project budget in
» Alekti resolves his position to attend the session to pass the budget
» Washington is hinting at an Iraqi role in the Pacific and Atlantic
» A parliamentary source reveals to (Baghdad Today) the reasons for postponing the budget session unti
» Al-Barti on today's session: Things are positive, and we are afraid of surprises in the last moments
» The Central Bank sells more than 200 million dollars with the decline of the Iraqi dinar in the mark
» Saudi Arabia expects to operate the electrical interconnection project with Iraq by the end of 2025
» In the document.. The Retirement Authority announces the completion of a study on the issue of incre
» New military operations for US forces in Iraq
» The Foreign Minister arrives in Riyadh to participate in the meeting of the international coalition
» Foreign Ministry: Iraq works to improve services, infrastructure, economy and fight corruption
» The House of Representatives postpones its session to eight o'clock this evening
» Briar Rashid: The House of Representatives has no choice but to vote on the draft budget law
» The tripartite budget project blown parliamentary disputes
» Postponement of the budget vote session
» Iraqi-Saudi meetings are "expected" to exchange security and intelligence information
» An Iraqi parliamentary delegation participates in the meetings of the Arab Parliament
» Dollar exchange rates in the Iraqi market today
» The Kurdistan Democratic Party decides its position on attending the budget session
» Frank26 is Going Live!!! Tuesday Night 6-6-2023
» Al-Rasheed Bank begins raising a new batch of electronic advances
» A slight increase in the exchange rates of the dollar in the local markets
» Close about 20 smuggling corridors between Iraq and Iran
» The budget spreads its papers on the table of secret settlements..and the representatives are protes
» The Council of Ministers holds its regular session headed by Al-Kazemi
» Statement from Commerce regarding the 'electronic automation form stamp'
» Democratic deputy: We will overcome the differences in tomorrow's session
» The end of a lengthy meeting of the framework and the announcement of an agreement to pass the budg
» Hannoun: The Central Bank will support the initiative to support small and medium enterprises
» USAID: We are committed to cooperating with our Iraqi partners to bring about positive change.. Thes
» The Central Bank denies depriving banks and companies from participating in the external transfer pl
» Details of a meeting between the Minister of Finance and a number of deputies
» Democrat lawmaker reveals 'drastic changes' on eve of budget session
» Emir of Qatar in Baghdad.. Economic and investment issues will be present
» Warnings of running out of Iraqi cash reserves due to indicators of the international economy
» A manipulation that almost made a profit of 1.2 billion dinars.. The abundant wheat season "tempts"
» Members of Parliamentary Finance: The political forces hijacked the budget
» The Electoral Commission clarifies the mechanism of work of the monitoring teams and the conditions
» Oil Allocates 40,000 residential plots of land in Basra for workers in the oil sector
» Minister of Oil: Allocating (40) thousand residential plots of land in Basra for workers in the oil
» The Minister of Oil reveals to Alsumaria the possibility of compensating Iraq for Iranian gas
» Iraq and Hungary are discussing the strategic development path project
» The Central Bank of Iraq denies the allegations of stopping some electronic payment cards
» A parliamentarian detonates a surprise about the budget, hours before it is approved
» Here, There and Everywhere
» In the presence of Al-Sudani, the framework agrees to pass the budget tomorrow
» The Central Bank of Iraq gives approval to open a government bank in Kurdistan within the unified ba
» Counterfeit currencies penetrate Iraq's borders and cause an increase in the value of the dollar
» Finance is discussing with the Swedish ambassador to build partnerships in the financial, economic a
» Independent deputies announce attendance at tomorrow's session: it may pass without the Democrat
» The Central Bank: directed to build a national lending strategy that will come into effect in early
» Planning begins with the implementation of the social and economic survey of the family in Iraq
» The Iraqi Trade Bank warns against trading in (the Belarusian ruble) and (the Venezuelan bolivar)
» Parliamentary Finance: Efforts to transfer the region's oil to be used locally and to preserve the a
» Politician: Exporting oil through SOMO will reveal the parties with which the region deals
» Budget 2023.. Al-Sudanese is betting on the majority to support the service government
» Disclosure of a prior and comprehensive political agreement to pass the budget tomorrow
» Economic: Legislation of the oil and gas law has become binding on the government and parliament
» Iraqi-Japanese talks to complete the signing of agreements related to the oil industries
» Housing crisis.. Al-Sudani: We will provide serviced plots of land and will not suffice with complex
» Al-Sudani: The development road includes the largest industrial city in the Middle East
» The World Bank lowers its forecasts for the economies of the Middle East in 2023
» It witnessed an increase during Al-Kazemi’s rule.. The World Bank: Iraq’s GDP growth declined by 1.1
» Report: Saudi Aramco is seeking large oil opportunities in Iraq
» The Aviation Authority announces the activation of 8 air transport agreements
» The use of POS devices, start-up and future prospects
» Sales of the Central Bank of Iraq exceed 230 million dollars in today's auction