An American account of the invasion of Iraq and a warning of “latent violence”

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[size=52]An American account of the invasion of Iraq and a warning of “latent violence”[/size]

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2023-03-21
The Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) presented a full account on the occasion of the 20th anniversary of the invasion of Iraq in 2003, the challenges of forming the Iraqi government, and the violence that permeated the Sadrist protests in August 2022.[/size]
[size=45]In a report translated by Shafaq News agency, the institute asked three questions to the doctor of international relations at the institute, Stephen Simon, and the researcher in the security studies program at the institute, Peter Krause, who is also a professor of political science at Boston College, and to the doctor at Boston College, Marcin Al-Shammari, and discussed issues with them. The history behind the Iraq war, the lessons learned from the idea of ​​nation-building, and the prospects for the current political scene.[/size]
[size=45]Peter Krause[/size]
[size=45]In response to a question about the lessons political scientists learned from the Iraqi insurgency and the US counter-insurgency campaign, Krause said, "One of the first lessons political scientists learned is that their analyzes and predictions can be surprisingly accurate even when they are at odds with the opinions of policymakers and the general public." He added, "Although the George Bush administration planned and initiated the invasion and the majority of Americans supported it, the majority of political scientists did not do so."[/size]
[size=45]A number of prominent political scientists, including four from MIT, published a full-page ad in the New York Times in September 2002, asserting that war was "not in America's national interest." And that such a potential conflict would cause "spreading instability in the Middle East ... hostility to America, and raise a threat to the campaign against al-Qaeda by diverting resources and focus, and that the United States does not have a reasonable exit strategy from Iraq."[/size]
[size=45]"All these fears were realized in the conflict that erupted later," Krause added.[/size]
[size=45]And Krause considered, “The second lesson is that although the US military is still the strongest in the world and has proven its ability to overthrow regimes, the desire and ability of US policymakers and military leaders to predict and plan effectively for the stage of the “day after” the fall of the regime is still not available".[/size]
[size=45]He added, "Iraq represents one of the many interventions in the broader Middle East that led to long and unexpected insurgencies and the emergence of leaders of new regimes that the United States did not expect or desire."[/size]
[size=45]According to Krause, “the third lesson is that the United States can and should be more selective in its interventions.” Americans should avoid it.[/size]
[size=45]Stephen Simon[/size]
[size=45]In response to a question about the most important opportunities and challenges facing the Iraqi government, Stephen Simon reminded of the stage that preceded the 2003 invasion, when Iraq was the target of a large-scale air campaign and 12 years of comprehensive economic sanctions that caused death, poverty and disease, and were also punctuated by frequent air strikes.[/size]
[size=45]Simon continued, "The combat operations did not actually end until after the defeat of ISIS."[/size]
[size=45]Simon stated that "Washington, through Paul Bremer, dismantled the Iraqi army, undermined the administrative capacity that was left in Iraq through de-Baathification, and established a consensual political system that contributed to corruption and hindered effective governance."[/size]
[size=45]Simon believed that "Iraq is facing serious challenges, recalling that Iraqi politics has been shaken by the attempt to overthrow the quota system during the past year, a crisis that ended after a violent confrontation and the defeat of the party (the Sadrist movement) that sought to overthrow the existing system and replace it with a majority government."[/size]
[size=45]He added, "The irony is that the faction pressing for this change was itself the embodiment of the old way of doing business and is not trusted by any other political faction."[/size]
[size=45]"The system was resilient enough to emerge unscathed from the harsh test," he added.[/size]
[size=45]However, Simon said, Iraq has a mixed military structure made up of regular army units and groups of militias that have varying ties to Iran.[/size]
[size=45]He added, "Such a situation may be a problem, but the Iraqis have learned to live with it, but it can prove to be more than just an embarrassing situation, if, for example, the United States and Iran entered the war."[/size]
[size=45]He also pointed to "the presence of the American military force, albeit in an advisory and training nature, and to the Turkish and Iranian interventions in the Kurdistan Region as well."[/size]
[size=45]Simon believed that “the biggest challenge facing Iraq is climate change, as Iraq suffers from global warming, and the southern marshes began to dry up, and the waters of the rivers diminish, while the government lacks the ability to develop and implement measures to reduce this, while assistance is unlikely to come.” From outside".[/size]
[size=45]Simon pointed out that "the available opportunities lie in the youth of Iraq, but the question is whether the political economy can provide this group with education and job opportunities."[/size]
[size=45]"Another important opportunity lies in renewing diplomatic and economic relations with the Arab countries in the Gulf," he added.[/size]
[size=45]Marcin Al-Shammari[/size]
[size=45]In response to a question about the context of the August 2022 protests, and why they turned violent, Marcin Al-Shammari said, “Iraq is on the brink of civil war again, and the conflict is not sectarian as it was in the 2006-2008 war, when Shiite and Sunni armed groups fought, but this was A semi-civil war will break out between different factions belonging to the largest and most powerful ethno-religious group in Iraq, the Shiites.[/size]
[size=45]Al-Shammari indicated that “the goal of the Sadrist leader, Muqtada al-Sadr, was to force his Shiite rivals in the coordination framework to play the role of the opposition,” adding that “from the American point of view, the coordination framework also includes some friendly faces (Haider al-Abadi and Ammar al-Hakim) and some whose relations with Iran are interesting.” Concern (such as Hadi al-Amiri and Qais al-Khazali), and that despite this, Iran and the United States have largely moved away from the government formation process.[/size]
[size=45]Al-Shammari continued, "At that time, the media and analysts were presenting, to a large extent, a one-sided story about Muqtada al-Sadr being the reformist and that the coordination framework included agents of Iran."[/size]
[size=45]And she added, "The coordination framework used many tactics to prevent al-Sadr from forming a majority government, including resorting to the Federal Supreme Court and preventing the parliamentary quorum required to elect a president," noting that "for weeks the protests were relatively peaceful, but they were also greatly destabilizing to the stability of affairs." While the Iraqis who went out in 2019 in large numbers to protest against the government, stayed away from participating in the new protests, for fear of “the well-known mercurial nature of the Sadrists.”[/size]
[size=45]Al-Shammari concluded by saying that “peace did not hold, and in late August, Al-Sadr announced his withdrawal from politics and indicated that he would not bear responsibility for the behavior of his followers, and the protests turned into violent acts, as the Sadrist movement clashed with elements of the Iraqi security forces and the Popular Mobilization Forces, and that during That restless night, the people of Baghdad were reminded of the civil war.”[/size]
[size=45]And she continued, saying that “for many observers, the situation began” as if Iraq was falling into a Shiite civil war, and the next day, probably under pressure from the Shiite clergy, and because of the military defeat in the Green Zone, Al-Sadr apologized to the Iraqi people and called on his followers to Stop the violence, and disperse immediately.”[/size]
[size=45]Al-Shammari said, "The tensions with the Sadrists have not dissipated and will remain lurking in the background of the mandate of the prime minister of Muhammad Shia'a al-Sudani."[/size]
[size=45]And she added, "The framework of this violence differs from the cases of violence in the past, as it is not directed against an occupying power or an ethnic-religious enemy, but is rather a manifestation of competition between the Shiites."[/size]
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