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The Road to War in Iraq: Bush, Blair, Intelligence Failure and the Lying Game
[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]Defense and security correspondent
Wed, March 22, 2023 6:40
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Blair said Saddam Hussein had military plans to use chemical and biological weapons that could be activated within 45 minutes (Getty Images/The Independent)
[rtl]I myself have had first-hand experience of how the government goes on the offensive when confronted with it. In September 2002, I was among a small group of journalists at the Al-Rashid Hotel in Baghdad who downloaded the Iraq file from the Internet. We have arranged with the office of Tariq Aziz, the Iraqi deputy prime minister, to visit some of the sites the regime is supposed to be using to manufacture the chemical and biological weapons mentioned in the document.[/rtl]
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From failed intelligence to dire warnings, what's in the infamous dossier that led to the Iraq war?
[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]Defense and security correspondent
Wed, March 22, 2023 6:40
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Blair said Saddam Hussein had military plans to use chemical and biological weapons that could be activated within 45 minutes (Getty Images/The Independent)
We were tricked into promoting an Apocalypse Now-like script. The narrative was that [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] had a secret [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] program . He was months away from testing a nuclear device. The threat was clear, present and imminent.
We were told that Iraq's dictator was intent on using his weapons of mass destruction, and that his forces could deploy them "within 45 minutes of being ordered to do so" using "a wide array of artillery shells, unguided bombs, machine guns and ballistic missiles [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] . British lives were at stake with the military bases in Cyprus within range of the attack.
British Prime Minister [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] put it very succinctly: "Saddam has ready and effective military plans for the use of chemical and biological weapons, which can be activated within 45 minutes, and he is actively trying to obtain nuclear weapons." In another letter, he went into precise and terrifying detail: "The biological materials that we believe Iraq is capable of producing are anthrax, botulinum, toxin, aflatoxin, and ricin, which are weapons that lead to painful and inevitable death."
The British Prime Minister was echoing US President [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] 's words across the Atlantic when he said: "The people of the United States and the people of our friends and allies will not live at the mercy of an outlaw regime that threatens the peace with weapons of mass murder. The dictator of Iraq and his weapons of mass destruction [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] A threat to the security of free countries.. The Iraqi regime is a threat of an emergency and urgent nature. There is a dangerous threat in Iraq, and it really is."
The governments of the two countries provided evidence to support these allegations in a dossier published on September 24, 2002. The dossier was based on the findings of the Joint Intelligence Committee (JIC) in the United Kingdom, while the introduction was written by Tony Blair himself. In addition to allegations of weapons of mass destruction and the ability to activate them within 45 minutes, the document revealed that Iraq was seeking "to obtain large quantities of [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] from Africa" that could be enriched and used in nuclear weapons.
A second file was also prepared on the third of February (February) 2003, and it was distributed to journalists by Alastair Campbell, then Blair's Director of Communications and Strategic Affairs. And that file became known as the "Iraq file" and the "fake file" at a later time. This dossier, titled "Iraq - The Structure of Concealment, Disinformation and Intimidation", delved into additional details dealing with weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. Washington and London pledged that they would not allow Saddam's regime to follow the path of evil.
As the drums of war were beating, the defining moment came with a presentation by [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] to the United Nations Security Council on February 5, 2003. It was a sobering warning from a revered and beloved former general, not just a part-time politician. Holding a bottle (containing anthrax) in his hand for more dramatic effect, the US Secretary of State declared: "Colleagues, every statement I make today is supported by reliable sources. What I say is not just allegations. We give you facts and conclusions based on solid intelligence."
But, as it turned out, none of this was based on solid intelligence, and without exception, all the allegations built around weapons of mass destruction in Iraq collapsed over the ensuing months. It turns out that all the reasons given to justify the war were all wrong. What's more, it turned out that the "evidence was fabricated" and turned out to be false and that it was the product of stolen material that lacked any proof.
The fact-finding mission of scientists and weapons experts dispatched by the UK and US governments shortly after the invasion, called the ISG, found, after extensive searches, no evidence of the weapons of mass destruction that both Bush and Blair were so certain of. They are certain that it poses a catastrophic threat.
The allegations of bringing in enriched uranium from Nigeria were based on a fake document, as [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] was quick to confirm when it was supplied by the United States. Some of the forgeries were blatant and egregious, such as the letter dated October 10, 2000, which allegedly bore the signature of Nigerian Foreign Minister Alili Habibu. In fact, Habibu left office in 1989. In this context, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Mohamed ElBaradei, declared: "It was not difficult for us to reach a quick conclusion that those documents were forged."
This "fake file" was prepared by a group of public servants led by Campbell and stolen from several undocumented sources, including the thesis of a student named Ibrahim Al-Marashi at California State University. Entire sections of that thesis were transcribed verbatim, including typos. The tone was "emphasized" in other sections, and one example asserting that Iraq "was helping opposition groups in hostile regimes" was replaced by "assisting terrorist organizations in hostile regimes."
Subsequently, the House of Commons Foreign Affairs Committee, in its inquiry into the Iraq war, concluded that the publication of this dossier had been "totally counterproductive" and had undermined the credibility of the government's case. The content of this dossier became the subject of much controversy and its implications played a decisive role in the accusations surrounding the death of Dr. David Kelly, a weapons expert who spoke with BBC journalist Andrew Gilligan.
The September dossier has also come under intense scrutiny in the many ensuing investigations. The Hutton investigation in 2004 found that senior members of the Defense Intelligence Agency had lodged a written objection to the 45-minute allegations and said it was a "highly exaggerated" and "excessively strong point" in the presentation. In this context, the head of the British Intelligence Service (MI6), Richard Dearlove, said that the matter involved a misunderstanding, as those allegations were related to potential weapons of mass destruction on the battlefield rather than in long-range strikes.
On the other hand, [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] in 2011 showed that Major General Michael Lowry of the Defense Intelligence Agency said: “The dossier was mainly intended to create an excuse to wage war rather than to identify the available intelligence, and to make the most of sporadic and inaccurate intelligence and therefore it was carefully drafted divorced".
During the same year, a memorandum obtained under the Freedom of Information Act and sent from Sir John Scarlett, chairman of the Joint Intelligence Committee, to Sir David Manning, Blair's chief foreign policy adviser, revealed how the information had been manipulated to put Iraq in the dock.
An initial draft of the dossier showed that four countries - Iran, Iraq, Libya and [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] - had "worrying weapons of mass destruction programmes". In a related context, Foreign Secretary Jack Straw indicated that the file had to show "the existence of an exceptional threat emanating from Iraq." Sir John suggested in response that the dossier should focus exclusively on Iraq "because this would have the benefit of obscuring the fact that Iraq is not so exceptional in terms of weapons of mass destruction".
Any attempt to challenge the allegations of weapons of mass destruction was met with a "quick and violent refutation" from the prime minister's office. During Hutton's investigation, an e-mail written by Secretary Straw's private secretary was revealed in which he described the then Foreign Secretary's role in "hardening the tone" of the dossier with a "killer clause".
A memorandum, copies of which were sent to both Alastair Campbell and John Scarlett, revealed Straw's statement that "The first clause of Paragraph VI on the importance of weapons of mass destruction must be strengthened to explain the centrality of these weapons to Saddam Hussein, such as their role in extending his power, for example, but not limited to." That paragraph is the role of weapons of mass destruction in the political myths that contributed to the continuation of the regime.
When the memo was found and published by The Independent in conjunction with the Hutton inquiry, Straw's reaction was to go on the offensive, arguing that this showed he was trying to strengthen "evidence" of weapons of mass destruction or that this added to the possibility of war.
[rtl]I myself have had first-hand experience of how the government goes on the offensive when confronted with it. In September 2002, I was among a small group of journalists at the Al-Rashid Hotel in Baghdad who downloaded the Iraq file from the Internet. We have arranged with the office of Tariq Aziz, the Iraqi deputy prime minister, to visit some of the sites the regime is supposed to be using to manufacture the chemical and biological weapons mentioned in the document.[/rtl]
We chose the sites to visit and the Iraqi authorities took us there within two hours of the file's release. We said in our reports that we did not see anything overtly suspicious during our visit, although we emphasized that we had no scientific expertise. But that was enough for Downing Street advisers to accuse us of being "simple idiots" who believed the regime's lies. They criticized us, saying that the newspapers we work for had no sense of responsibility for spreading "these lies".
Among the sites we visited was the al-Kaka military complex 30 miles south of Baghdad. According to the file, the aforementioned complex was dismantled by United Nations inspectors after the [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] in 1991, but was rebuilt after that and was producing the drug phosgene used in nerve gases. We also went to the Amariyah Sera vaccine factory, which is located in Abu Ghraib, a suburb of Baghdad, which, according to the file, has begun to be used again "to store biological materials and seeds and to carry out genetic research related to biological warfare."
Both sites were subsequently inspected by United Nations teams present in Iraq at the time. The inspectors found no evidence of weapons of mass destruction. The sites were also inspected again by the Iraq Survey Group after the invasion, but they, too, failed to find any weapons of mass destruction, as was the case with every other site mentioned in the file.
On our return visits to the UK it became clear that an invasion was inevitable. The inspections in Iraq were nothing more than a cover for waging war. What was also evident, in speaking to the British military personnel, was their anxiety about the task they were about to undertake. While the Bush and Blair administrations continued to dramatize the search for a negotiated solution to the crisis, their military leaders were delayed in starting the necessary preparations for war.
The heads of the British services met to express their concerns about the legality of the war. In this context, Admiral Lord Boyce, Chief of Staff, asked the Government for a written guarantee on this matter. He told the Chilcot inquest in 2011: "I had already made it clear to the Prime Minister in January 2003 that I would seek confirmation of the legal basis for the war. This was repeated more than once in the following weeks and formally and explicitly in March when it became clear that it was likely that Coalition forces will invade Iraq as soon as political approval is obtained." After pressing, Lord Boyce obtained "one line" from the Attorney-General, Lord Peter Goldsmith, confirming that the war was legal.
After his retirement, Lord Boyce told me: "I used to tell my American counterparts over and over again that the UK was not in the mood for regime change in Iraq. They were convinced that this was what President Bush wanted and that Blair would follow suit. I didn't realize at the time how excited Blair was because he thought he was close from Bush."
Lord Powis died in November last year. This week, General Sir Mike Jackson, now Chief of the General Staff (Commander of the Army), told me: “It was decided at the Chiefs of Service meeting that we needed clarification on the legality of the war and we needed it in writing. We were ready to fight for the Queen and the country but it was The legality of the war that was about to take place must be confirmed."
He added, "The intelligence used in the run-up to the war turned out to be flimsy. I don't think it was all made up, but of course it turned out to be incorrect. There were, as we know, a number of inquiries made after that, and certainly some points emerged." Interesting too."
[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] government suggested in 2009 that the Chilcot inquiry should be conducted in secret, General Jackson and other senior military and intelligence officials told The Independent at the time that hearings had to be public and transparent to be credible.
General Jackson said, "I have no problem whatsoever with testifying in public. Doing closed hearings would only feed the climate of mistrust and suspicion in the government. Indeed there is no reason why witnesses should not testify under oath. The main problem is a secret investigation within the climate." The current suspicion about Iraq is that people will think that something is being hidden."
Air Marshal Sir John Walker, former head of the Defense Intelligence Agency, said: "There is only one reason the inquiry should be heard closed and that is to protect the former and current members of this government. There are 179 reasons [the number of British troops killed in Iraq] why he would want to "The army is uncovering the truth about what happened in Iraq. We have troubling questions about how to ramp up intelligence to fit Tony Blair and his cronies and their reasons for the invasion."
Staff Major General Julian Thompson, former commanding officer of the Royal Marines, said: "We are looking into something very serious: the allegation that a British government manipulated intelligence to engage in an illegal war. What happened in Iraq cannot be hidden and there needs to be an examination of what went wrong and a look at the consequences." ".
In the United States, Colin Powell later conceded that his speech at the United Nations on uranium was a pivotal point in paving the way for the invasion and that his claims were false. He added: "It tarnished my record, but you know there's nothing I can do to change that black spot... I'm the one who made the biggest show and that's why it all came back on me. I was so embarrassed when the weapons of mass destruction weren't found. It was me." I felt humiliated."
[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]US Secretary of State Colin Powell holds a vial he said is the size that can be used to carry anthrax, in a speech to the United Nations Security Council on February 5, 2003 (AFP/Getty Images)
For his part, Tony Blair has always insisted that he did not mislead the country. “What I cannot and will not do is say we made the wrong decision,” he said after the Chilcot inquest. “There were no lies and there was no deception.” [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] " Blair insisted in a recent BBC interview , a claim his critics on Iraq find ludicrous. He also asserted that it was necessary to join the invasion to maintain the "special relationship" with the United States.
He added, "When I was prime minister, there was no doubt, whether during the era of President Clinton or President Bush, who was the person the American president called first. It is definitely the British prime minister. Today we are outside Europe, so will Joe Biden pick up the phone to call Rishi? [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] first? I doubt it.”
George W. Bush wrote in his memoirs: "Nobody was more shocked and outraged than I that we didn't find weapons of mass destruction. I get a bad feeling every time I think about it, and still am."
Two months ago, while speaking at the Presidential Library in Dallas about [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] , the former US president said: "The absence of checks and balances led to a decision by one person to launch an unprovoked, violent invasion of Iraq, [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] ."
It wasn't quite an admission: but it told people who knew the invasion of Iraq was based on a lie all they needed to know.
:copyright: The Independent[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]
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