[size=30]An American report reveals two trends within the framework for dealing with Kurdistan's oil after the Paris decision
[ltr]2023.04.01 - 14:08[/ltr]
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[ltr]2023.04.01 - 14:08[/ltr]
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Baghdad - people
A report by the "Washington Institute" stated that the faction most skeptical about the emerging agreement between Baghdad and the Kurdistan region and the oil deal is former Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki and Qais Khazali, contrary to the approach of al-Sudani and a group of actors such as Hadi al-Amiri, Ammar al-Hakim and Haider al-Abadi who are willing to advance the deal with the region. Kurdistan.
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According to the report followed by "NAS" (April 1, 2023), "There seem to be three reasons for Maliki and Khazali's escalation with the Kurdistan region: First, Maliki and Khazali want to dominate both the framework and the Sudanese. Secondly, they are the members of the framework who have the worst relations with the Barzani family." and third, the delay in agreement may benefit the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan—the counterweight to the Barzani family—whose leader, Pavel Talabani, is already in Baghdad to broker an outcome with the KRG.
Here is part of the text of the report:
On March 25, the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) in Paris issued its long-awaited ruling on arbitration brought by Iraq in 2012, which alleged that Turkey violated multiple aspects of the 1973 Iraq-Turkey Pipeline Agreement (ITP) (which updated in 1976, 1985, and 2010). Baghdad alleged that Turkish pipeline operator BOTAS should have sought express permission from the Iraqi federal government before allowing the KRI to transport, store and export Iraqi oil using ITP and related Iraqi export facilities at the Turkish port of Ceyhan.
The arbitration award is not public, but what has been leaked (and neither party has denied) is that in at least one of the five claims the ICC found in favor of Iraq, and that it issued a binding award of $1.46 billion (plus interest) to Baghdad for part of the period. Estimated (2014-18, leaving 2018-23 and certain prior periods for a later award decision). Turkey, a signatory to the New York Convention on Arbitration, apparently informed Baghdad on the day of the ICC ruling that it would respect the decision and not operate the ITP or allow the loading of crude oil produced in Iraqi Kurdistan from Ceyhan until Iraq received permission to do so.
As a result, the export of approximately 500,000 barrels per day of crude oil (420,000 marketed by Kurdistan and 80,000 by Iraq) to Turkey and elsewhere has ceased, wiping out the entire income of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, which has a population of around five million. . If the pause lasts for weeks or months, the economic crisis will overwhelm the Kurds and start to drive up oil prices. In parallel, the main foreign investors in Kurdistan - including a number of US oil companies - will be forced to close their projects.
Stop why and why now?
The main question to be asked is not just why the ruling was passed, but why now, and who will benefit? The verdict was not expected at this very moment. This is because the ICC does not like to be seen as meddling in politics or oil flows, and the current moment is sensitive in both Turkey (where tense elections will be held on May 14) and Iraq (where the painstaking process has almost made a breakthrough on energy and revenue issues between Baghdad and the Kurdistan region; although the verdict was handed down shortly after an Iraqi and Turkish summit, the approximate timing appears to have been dictated by leaks, prompting the ICC to announce its partial deliberations.
Within the coordination framework run by Iran-backed militias that form the core of political support for Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani - the faction most skeptical of the budget approved between Baghdad and the Kurdistan Region of Iraq and the oil deal is former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. Al-Sudani and a group of actors (Hadi al-Amiri, Ammar al-Hakim, Haider al-Abadi) were ready to push the deal with the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, but al-Maliki and another player - designated by the United States as a terrorist and violator of human rights, Qais Khazali - constantly sought to flex their muscles in the frame by Press for a tougher deal with the Kurdistan region.
There seem to be three reasons for this: First, Maliki and Khazali want to dominate both al-Fatara and al-Sudani. secondly, they are the members of the framework who have the worst relations with the Barzani family that leads the Kurdistan region; And third, the delay in agreement may benefit the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan—the counterweight to the Barzani family—whose leader, Pavel Talabani, is already in Baghdad to broker an outcome with the KRG.
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