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Established in 2006 as a Community of Reality

Welcome to the Neno's Place!

Neno's Place Established in 2006 as a Community of Reality


Neno

I can be reached by phone or text 8am-7pm cst 972-768-9772 or, once joining the board I can be reached by a (PM) Private Message.

Established in 2006 as a Community of Reality

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Established in 2006 as a Community of Reality

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    Iraq and 8 countries are awaiting the OPEC + meeting.. International experts: It may trigger a surpr

    Rocky
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    Iraq and 8 countries are awaiting the OPEC + meeting.. International experts: It may trigger a surpr Empty Iraq and 8 countries are awaiting the OPEC + meeting.. International experts: It may trigger a surpr

    Post by Rocky Fri 02 Jun 2023, 6:44 am

    [size=35][size=35]Iraq and 8 countries are awaiting the OPEC + meeting.. International experts: It may trigger a surprise related to oil prices[/size]
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    Economy

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    2023-06-02 | 05:33
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    Alsumaria News - Economy

    The eyes of the oil markets are turning to the OPEC + meeting, which is scheduled to be held on June 4, 2023, to determine the production policy in the coming period, after several countries in the alliance announced an additional voluntary cut in order to achieve stability and balance, which raised speculation about the decisions that will be taken. It will be revealed at the next meeting and the extent of its impact on oil prices.


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    [url=https://www.alsumaria.tv/Entity/47950/%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D9%85%D9%84%D9%83%D8%A9 %D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B9%D8%B1%D8%A8%D9%8A%D8%A9 %D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B3%D8%B9%D9%88%D8%AF%D9%8A%D8%A9/ar/]Saudi Arabia[/url] and 8 other countries in OPEC + announced a voluntary reduction in oil production, by a total of 1.66 million barrels per day, in the period from May 2023 until the end of the year, in addition to the reduction agreed upon by the coalition by two million barrels per day in the period from November 2022 until the end of the year. year end.



    In this regard, we review the opinions of elite experts about their expectations for the decisions of the next OPEC + meeting, and whether we will witness a new production cut, as well as the range of oil prices in the second half of 2023. * A

    new cut in OPEC + production
    . [url=https://www.alsumaria.tv/Entity/1761889505/%D9%81%D8%A7%D9%86%D8%AF%D8%A7 %D8%A5%D9%86%D8%B3%D8%A7%D9%8A%D8%AA%D8%B3/ar/]Vanda Insights[/url]" on energy markets, Vandana [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.], that the OPEC + alliance will continue its course during its next meeting, which will be held on June 4.

    She explained that the alliance always gives itself time to reach full compliance, and to monitor the impact of any production cuts on the actual market, before taking any further steps.

    "However, the market will also factor in the risk of a surprise, as the OPEC+ alliance has presented a number of such surprises in recent years," she added.

    The opinion was shared by the head of the American [url=https://www.alsumaria.tv/Entity/2651204318/%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%A8%D9%8A%D8%AF%D8%A7%D9%86 %D8%A7%D9%86%D8%B1%D8%AC%D9%8A/ar/]Rapidan Energy[/url] Company, [url=https://www.alsumaria.tv/Entity/439802068/%D8%A8%D9%88%D8%A8 %D9%85%D9%83%D9%86%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%8A/ar/]Bob McNally[/url], who confirmed that the coalition ministers prefer to extend their agreement, and allow the production cuts this month to enter into force.

    However, he indicated that another production cut "may appear on the table", in the event that oil prices decline further at the weekend, amid very pessimistic sentiments about the macro economy.

    Senior advisor on foreign policy and energy geopolitics, Omod Shukri, believes that a drop in oil prices to $75 a barrel may lead to stimulating discussions within OPEC+ about adjusting production levels to manage the market.

    Historically, Shoukry said, the alliance made decisions about oil production cuts or increases in response to various factors, including market conditions and supply-and-demand dynamics.

    * Adhere to caution after the recent reductions
    For his part, said commodities analyst at Swiss bank [url=https://www.alsumaria.tv/Entity/122379/%D9%8A%D9%88 %D8%A8%D9%8A %D8%A5%D8%B3/ar/]UBS[/url] [url=https://www.alsumaria.tv/Entity/1493288725/%D8%AC%D9%8A%D9%88%D9%81%D8%A7%D9%86%D9%8A %D8%B3%D8%AA%D8%A7%D9%86%D9%88%D9%81%D9%88/ar/]Giovanni Stanovo[/url] that the alliance will stick to its cautious stance, with the aim of maintaining the balance of the oil market.

    He said the recent voluntary production cuts were implemented recently; Therefore, it needs time to affect the market balance, but he stressed that there are continuing concerns driven by fears of economic growth in the [url=https://www.alsumaria.tv/Entity/45068/%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%88%D9%84%D8%A7%D9%8A%D8%A7%D8%AA %D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D8%AA%D8%AD%D8%AF%D8%A9 %D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A3%D9%85%D8%B1%D9%8A%D9%83%D9%8A%D8%A9/ar/]United States[/url] and China, on the other hand.

    The editor-in-chief of the "Petroleum Economist" platform, [url=https://www.alsumaria.tv/Entity/3500481155/%D8%A8%D9%88%D9%84 %D9%87%D9%8A%D9%83%D9%86/ar/]Paul Hicken[/url], indicated that there does not seem to be much desire on the part of OPEC + ministers to cut production further, shortly after the last round of cuts.

    The following infographic shows the size of the additional cuts implemented by 9 countries of the coalition until the end of the year:


    [You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]


    [url=https://www.alsumaria.tv/Entity/3500481155/%D8%A8%D9%88%D9%84 %D9%87%D9%8A%D9%83%D9%86/ar/]Paul Hicken[/url] said coalition ministers may prefer to wait and see the impact of these current cuts on the actual market, according to his comments to the specialized energy platform.

    For her part, Dr. Sarah Fakhshuri, head of [url=https://www.alsumaria.tv/Entity/2006463858/%D8%A5%D8%B3 %D9%81%D9%8A %D8%A8%D9%8A %D8%A5%D9%86%D8%B1%D8%AC%D9%8A %D8%A5%D9%86%D8%AA%D8%B1%D9%86%D8%A7%D8%B4%D9%8A%D9%88%D9%86%D8%A7%D9%84/ar/]SVB Energy International[/url], believes that it is very difficult to predict the results of the next OPEC+ meeting.

    "Prices are relatively low compared to the previous month, but at the same time, we are heading into the summer season and the seasonal demand for oil," she said.

    * Will the voluntary reduction turn into mandatory?
    The founder of the ““[url=https://www.alsumaria.tv/Entity/1761889505/%D9%81%D8%A7%D9%86%D8%AF%D8%A7 %D8%A5%D9%86%D8%B3%D8%A7%D9%8A%D8%AA%D8%B3/ar/]Vanda Insights[/url]” Center on Energy Markets, Vandana [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.], said that the OPEC + alliance may formalize voluntary cuts by 9 of its members, at the next meeting.

    When asked about the possibility of achieving a Saudi surprise with a new voluntary cut on the part of the Kingdom, she said: "It is difficult to see the Kingdom offering an additional voluntary cut alone, especially at a time when Russia is providing just over half of the cut it has pledged, amounting to 500,000 barrels per day."

    The editor-in-chief of the "Petroleum Economist" platform, Paul Hiken, indicated that the most likely scenario is that the OPEC + alliance converts voluntary cuts into a more formal agreement to improve credibility and accountability.

    He explained that there may be some adjustments in the deal to integrate the wider group.

    In the same context, the head of the American [url=https://www.alsumaria.tv/Entity/2651204318/%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%A8%D9%8A%D8%AF%D8%A7%D9%86 %D8%A7%D9%86%D8%B1%D8%AC%D9%8A/ar/]Rapidan Energy[/url] Company, [url=https://www.alsumaria.tv/Entity/439802068/%D8%A8%D9%88%D8%A8 %D9%85%D9%83%D9%86%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%8A/ar/]Bob McNally[/url], said that it is likely that a small subgroup of OPEC + members will cut oil production, after the voluntary cut announced by 9 member countries last April.

    He added, "It is not possible to rule out a repetition of the voluntary cuts that [url=https://www.alsumaria.tv/Entity/47950/%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D9%85%D9%84%D9%83%D8%A9 %D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B9%D8%B1%D8%A8%D9%8A%D8%A9 %D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B3%D8%B9%D9%88%D8%AF%D9%8A%D8%A9/ar/]Saudi Arabia[/url] made in January 2021, but the ministers prefer collective cuts," according to his statements to the specialized energy platform.

    Senior foreign policy advisor and energy geopolitics Umud Choukri stated that [url=https://www.alsumaria.tv/Entity/47950/%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D9%85%D9%84%D9%83%D8%A9 %D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B9%D8%B1%D8%A8%D9%8A%D8%A9 %D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B3%D8%B9%D9%88%D8%AF%D9%8A%D8%A9/ar/]Saudi Arabia[/url] would be able to cut production voluntarily, if necessary.

    *2023 OIL PRICE EXPECTATIONS
    Vandana [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.], founder of the [url=https://www.alsumaria.tv/Entity/1761889505/%D9%81%D8%A7%D9%86%D8%AF%D8%A7 %D8%A5%D9%86%D8%B3%D8%A7%D9%8A%D8%AA%D8%B3/ar/]Vanda Insights[/url] Center on Energy Markets, predicted that the average Brent crude price would be around $75 per barrel in the second half of 2023. Senior foreign policy and energy geopolitics adviser Umod Choukri believes that it is possible

    that Crude prices reach $75 per barrel in the second half of the year.

    Shukri explained that there are some factors that could affect oil prices during the second half of 2023, represented in the global demand for oil, geopolitical factors, the movements of OPEC + countries, shale oil production, environmental policies, and the transition to renewable energy.

    He pointed out the importance of noting that unexpected events, such as natural disasters, economic shocks or technological developments, could significantly affect oil prices.

    In addition, geopolitical events or supply disruptions in major oil-producing regions may contribute to price volatility, Shoukry told the energy platform.

    For his part, [url=https://www.alsumaria.tv/Entity/3500481155/%D8%A8%D9%88%D9%84 %D9%87%D9%8A%D9%83%D9%86/ar/]Paul Hicken[/url], editor-in-chief of the "Petroleum Economist" platform, said that oil prices may remain under pressure in the near term, and may drop below $70 a barrel.

    He indicated that it is likely to return to the level of $ 80 a barrel later in the year.

    * Risks to oil prices
    President of the American [url=https://www.alsumaria.tv/Entity/2651204318/%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%A8%D9%8A%D8%AF%D8%A7%D9%86 %D8%A7%D9%86%D8%B1%D8%AC%D9%8A/ar/]Rapidan Energy[/url] Company, [url=https://www.alsumaria.tv/Entity/439802068/%D8%A8%D9%88%D8%A8 %D9%85%D9%83%D9%86%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%8A/ar/]Bob McNally[/url], said that a large supply and demand deficit is expected, and a sharp rise in crude oil prices to about $ 100 by the end of the year, according to the base case scenario.

    However, McNally noted that confidence in this base case is weakened by negative macroeconomic headwinds arising from inflationary pressures, higher interest rates, tighter central bank credit conditions, and risks associated with war and sanctions.

    So, while oil prices are rising in the medium term, the near term is fraught with two-way risks, McNally told the specialist energy platform.

    For his part, [url=https://www.alsumaria.tv/Entity/1493288725/%D8%AC%D9%8A%D9%88%D9%81%D8%A7%D9%86%D9%8A %D8%B3%D8%AA%D8%A7%D9%86%D9%88%D9%81%D9%88/ar/]Giovanni Stanovo[/url], a commodity analyst at the Swiss bank [url=https://www.alsumaria.tv/Entity/122379/%D9%8A%D9%88 %D8%A8%D9%8A %D8%A5%D8%B3/ar/]UBS[/url], said that he still expects that seasonal demand for oil will rise during the summer in the northern hemisphere, and that a decrease in production as a result of OPEC + production cuts would lead to a scarcity of supplies in the market. Oil, price support.

    Dr. Sarah Fakhshuri, President of [url=https://www.alsumaria.tv/Entity/2006463858/%D8%A5%D8%B3 %D9%81%D9%8A %D8%A8%D9%8A %D8%A5%D9%86%D8%B1%D8%AC%D9%8A %D8%A5%D9%86%D8%AA%D8%B1%D9%86%D8%A7%D8%B4%D9%8A%D9%88%D9%86%D8%A7%D9%84/ar/]SVB Energy International[/url], believes that the market can expect a lower oil price range than the previous year, with the global economic slowdown, if no geopolitical or sudden factor occurs.

    "Therefore, OPEC+ members may adjust their expectations to a new lower range for oil prices, rather than racing to cut production in hopes of maintaining a higher price range," she said.

     
    Source:  Specialized Energy Platform
     
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