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Dr.. Haitham Hamid Mutlaq Al-Mansour
After the government regained its influence over its resources, the macroeconomic policy climate is witnessing, in recent times, a development in the government correction movement towards construction and reconstruction and the crystallization of the developmental role of the state, especially in the services and employment sector, and concentrated steps in amending the course of public administration in order to move what was frozen in the previous period and activate projects lagging behind and embarking on a new one.
And since the economic policy aims to enter into adjusting the economic balance in order to deepen the well-being of the individual and society, the important question at this stage is about which developmental directions the current government should follow in order to move forward with rearranging investment and operational priorities and carrying out the correction and reconstruction process to its desired goal? Which sector should I start?
Since the development processes deal with the analysis of cost and revenue in the allocation of productive resources, achieving continuous growth requires dealing with institutional, social, political and cultural priorities to achieve structural transformation in light of the government's coordinated role among the decisions that support the achievement of prosperity and the reduction of inequality.
However, many joints of the Iraqi economy fall within the conditions of monopoly and outside the balances of supply and demand in many important activities and events, which hinders the application of development models to the Iraqi economic reality, which suffers from structural imbalance in production and demand, so the government decision-maker must follow the logic of realism In providing possible solutions and dealing with this inflexible reality with possible targeted solutions and treatments to prepare the appropriate ground for structural reform later, in other words, the government correction movement in the Iraqi economic reality must start from the beginning through one of the following two main axes:
As the problems of privatization impede, for example, the reformulation of an industrial and commercial policy aimed at building a labor-intensive industry with low export costs and competition in the activity of light industries, such as textiles, clothing, food products, carpet manufacturing, leather industries, the chemical and pharmaceutical industries sector, and similar important consumer industries to meet internal demand and meet the export sector. To adjust the trade balance. Therefore, it is not possible to choose this axis at present for a re-arrangement or a long-term correction.
The second: postponing the first and dealing with the data of the problematic economic structure through planning for comprehensive development through the pioneering sector and intended for it (the oil sector), starting from it to correct the distortion in the oil industry, through the vertical focus of the activities of the oil industry, which is reinforced by the annual budget items and is organically linked to the financial allocations of the general budget Within the short and medium terms, and deepening non-oil investment by establishing a sovereign fund to invest oil surpluses in a sustainable manner in productive projects that generate returns for material and social redistribution that flow into the base of long-term growth.
Therefore, the proposed method aims to achieve the optimal allocation of oil rents through the lines of industrial interlocking between the pioneering sector and other sectors in order to remove the impact of exclusion practiced by this activity on the rest of the economic sectors, and to enhance the economic and social role of these sectors and link them to the aforementioned sector because of its impact in directing government and private spending towards Investing in the infrastructure, social, health and education systems necessary for the development process, within the limits of the short term, which often reflects the effectiveness of the overall policy and its macroeconomic content. It is necessary to plan to direct financial resources towards re-prioritizing short-term projects that have the first immediate effects of short-term correction. The second is cumulative in the context of development priorities, due to the external savings they add and their implications for the reality of long-term investments.
In order to reshape a development axis capable of benefiting from the mechanisms of sustainable financial management of the investment sector, the importance of the government taking this direction of development through planning for the oil sector as the leading sector and developing it vertically by paying attention to the internal activities associated with it, such as manufacturing industries in many economic sectors Such as the construction and construction sector, the electric energy services sector, and many industries related to internal consumer demand and what would reduce the volume of imports, on the one hand. On the other hand, the government must draw up a development plan to attract private sector activity to achieve consistency in sectoral growth to raise the proportion of Contribution to the gross domestic product.
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