American concern about Iraq’s “good neighborliness”: influence is declining

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[size=52]American concern about Iraq’s “good neighborliness”: influence is declining[/size]

[size=45]The American “Washington Institute” urged the United States to be wary of the ongoing phenomenon of rapprochement in the Middle East region, especially between Saudi Arabia and Iran, neighboring Iraq, considering that although these developments are welcomed, this rapprochement leads to a decline in confidence in the role of the United States itself.[/size]
[size=45]A report written by a researcher at the American Institute, David Schenker, pointed to “the shock that Washington felt due to the diplomatic rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran, and the feeling of surprise among the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), as mentioned in the statement of US National Security Advisor Jack Sullivan, who despite his surprise at the understanding.” Saudi-Iranian, but he said that this does not fundamentally conflict with American interests, which include supporting the reduction of escalation in the Gulf.”[/size]
[size=45]The American report pointed out that “calming tensions with Iran has been a political priority for the administration of President Joe Biden since the first day of his administration, and its positions later reached a lowering of expectations as it offered to release billions of frozen Iranian funds in exchange for Iran halting its progress in the field of enrichment.” He added that despite the advantages represented by the Biden administration's offer, Tehran has not shown much interest in reducing tension with Washington.[/size]
[size=45]At the same time, the report saw that “Saudi Arabia and the UAE were determined to seek to reduce tensions with Iran and other adversaries, in order to calm regional tensions.”[/size]
[size=45]good neighborly[/size]
[size=45]The American report explained, “There are several reasons behind this shift from confrontation to ambitious ‘good neighbourliness’, as Saudi and Emirati officials put it, with Iran and other enemies in the region. The first is that the confrontation was not successful, as Riyadh’s efforts aimed at ending its costly war in Yemen against the Houthi militias supported by Iran not only did not stop, but the militias were targeting the UAE, and Iran continued to detain ships in the Gulf, and threatened to attack the UAE militarily itself.”[/size]
[size=45]At the same time, the report noted, “The Biden administration’s more conciliatory approach toward Iran, which included removing the Houthis from the list of terrorist organizations, a lenient stance toward enforcing sanctions, and unbridled enthusiasm for negotiations, did not reinforce or support Riyadh and Abu Dhabi’s hostile policies toward Iran.”[/size]
[size=45]The second reason for this shift is related to tensions with Iran, especially for Saudi Arabia, as it diverts attention from local priorities, as Riyadh’s priority relates to implementing “Vision 2030,” which seeks, among other things, to build a tourism sector that goes beyond the Hajj season and encourage transportation. The regional headquarters of multinational companies moved to the Kingdom, while the ongoing cold war with Iran and the hot war in Yemen complicated the implementation of the “vision,” according to a report by the American Washington Institute.[/size]
[size=45]As for the third, and most important, reason related to Saudi Arabia and the UAE’s pursuit of rapprochement with Iran, because they lost confidence in the military commitment of the United States towards its regional partners. Over time, a series of incidents and developments led the Gulf partners to question the credibility of the implicit security guarantees provided by Washington. .[/size]
[size=45]Reconciliation instead of confrontation[/size]
[size=45]In this context, the American report stated that the signing of the “Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action” that established Iranian uranium enrichment, and former President Barack Obama’s subsequent statement to “The Atlantic” magazine that the Saudis needed to “share the neighborhood” with Iran, were worrying.[/size]
[size=45]He continued that doubts increased with the subsequent reduction of US forces and the redeployment of equipment from the Arabian Peninsula, and President Donald Trump’s lack of a kinetic response to the attacks in 2019 on the Abqaiq facility of Aramco and the downing of an RQ-4A Global Hawk drone. “Over the bay.”[/size]
[size=45]The American report indicated that the UAE was disturbed in January 2022 by what it considered a lackluster response from the Biden administration to the attack launched by the Houthis with missiles and drones on the capital, Abu Dhabi, in a barrage that the Emiratis considered to be their own version of “September 11.”[/size]
[size=45]Zeroing accounts[/size]
[size=45]The report stated that the targeted killing carried out by the Trump administration in 2020 of the leader of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, Qassem Soleimani, temporarily restored the Gulf’s confidence in Washington’s willingness to use force against Iran, but this approach, whether for better or worse, did not continue.[/size]
[size=45]The report continued that, just as Riyadh and Abu Dhabi were strengthening their communication with Beijing, the move towards rapprochement with Iran was an indication of a hedging strategy.[/size]
[size=45]In addition, the report explained that the rapprochement and efforts made to reduce regional escalation were not limited to Iran only, as in parallel with this communication with Iran, Saudi Arabia and the UAE worked to reduce other tensions in the region.[/size]
[size=45]He pointed out that one of the separate but related efforts on this front is related to returning Syria to the Arab embrace, as during the past year, Riyadh and Abu Dhabi led an initiative to politically reintegrate and rehabilitate Bashar al-Assad’s regime, as it had been largely treated regionally and internationally as a pariah since then. The year 2011 due to his brutal suppression of the popular uprising.[/size]
[size=45]The report pointed out that Riyadh and Abu Dhabi also hoped, unrealistically, that the reintegration of Syria would encourage the regime to end its prolific exports of Captagon, the region's preferred amphetamine.[/size]
[size=45]At the same time, the report stated that these countries sought to bury their grudges with Turkey, another long-time rival. He added that last year, Riyadh and Abu Dhabi began to put aside their hostility towards Ankara and embraced President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and in recent months, these countries provided billions in aid and signed trade deals and huge defense procurement agreements to support the fragile Turkish economy and support the Turkish president’s election campaign.[/size]
[size=45]Based on the above, the American Washington Institute report said that “renewed diplomatic relations between Iran on the one hand and Saudi Arabia and the UAE on the other hand have not yet succeeded in calming tensions in the waters of the Gulf,” adding that tensions have escalated recently with Tehran intensifying its efforts to seize tankers. Oil, while with regard to Iraq, the Iranian-backed militias known as the Popular Mobilization Forces, which launched drone attacks on Saudi Arabia in 2019 and 2021, have become more powerful and influential.[/size]
[size=45]In the short term, renewed diplomatic relations may protect Saudi Arabia and the UAE from direct attack by Iran and/or its proxies, but it will not prevent Tehran from pursuing other problematic policies that challenge the regional stocks of these countries, according to the report.[/size]
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