“Failure” of American deterrence in Iraq.. A report suggests “direct intimidation” against Iran

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[size=52]“Failure” of American deterrence in Iraq.. A report suggests “direct intimidation” against Iran[/size]

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2023-11-26
The American newspaper “The Hill” called on the administration of President Joe Biden to target Iran itself directly, and not through its agents, in order to deter attacks on its forces in Iraq and Syria, considering that the American responses so far have “failed” in Achieving its deterrent goal, warning that Tehran's strategy aimed at driving a wedge between the United States and Israel could succeed.[/size]
[size=45]After the American report said that Washington, despite its capabilities, does not instill fear in Iran, as Israel does, it stated that when Israel carries out military operations against Iran in Iraq and Syria and secret operations against its nuclear facilities, Iran responds by targeting American forces in the Middle East from Through its agents, it is expected that the American administration will exert pressure on Israel to stop the escalation.[/size]
[size=45]The report criticized the idea that America has become an agent for Iran to respond to Israel.[/size]
[size=45]The three options to stop attacks[/size]
[size=45]While the report referred to the measures and raids carried out by Washington against Iranian-backed militia sites in Iraq and Syria, and sending warships to the region, the report said that these measures did not succeed in deterring Iranian proxies; Indeed, the number of attacks has increased.[/size]
[size=45]The report considered that Iran will continue to escalate, leaving the US administration with three options: accepting Iran’s demands to stop the attacks; Or not to make any adjustments and continue to endure the attacks, or escalate the American retaliation to make Iran stop.[/size]
[size=45]The report asked whether Iran would succeed in pushing the Biden administration to demand that Israel stop its operations in Gaza to end the increasing attacks against American soldiers?[/size]
[size=45]The report believed that deterrence through punishment is possible, although it pointed out that the United States has never succeeded in deterring Iran or coercing it by punishing its agents, adding that the only times that Washington imposed a direct strategic cost on Iran, it succeeded in imposing deterrence. .[/size]
[size=45]He pointed out that the first time was in what was known as the Tanker War in 1988, when President Ronald Reagan sank 6 of 12 Iranian ships, which led to Iranian “aggression” and convinced Supreme Leader Ruhollah Khomeini to end the Iran-Iraq war.[/size]
[size=45]The second time was after the assassination of Quds Force Commander Qassem Soleimani in 2020, adding that Iran had significantly reduced its attacks on American forces until Biden took power, but since then, it had resumed attacks on American forces and gradually escalated them.[/size]
[size=45]Avoid direct confrontation[/size]
[size=45]The report considered that Iran does not have the capacity for direct confrontation with the United States, noting that the Iranian regime’s increase in its bold attacks against American forces is the result of its confidence that it will not pay the price for its actions.[/size]
[size=45]Therefore, the report considers that showing military determination by punishing Iran directly and forcefully would force the regime to radically change its strategy, adding that 45 years of sanctions have limited Iran's capabilities, but have failed to deter it.[/size]
[size=45]The report explained that the presence of the “Hamas” movement, the Lebanese Hezbollah, and other agents of the regime throughout the Middle East, is in order to ensure the survival of Iran, and not the other way around, and therefore neutralizing Iran’s tactical assets will not lead to strategic or political change, given that these agents are mercenaries. They can be dispensed with.[/size]
[size=45]He continued, saying that in order to bring about such a strategic change, the United States must either neutralize strategic military assets, or threaten the regime's grip on power.[/size]
[size=45]The American report concluded by saying that if the United States does not impose deterrence, Iran will continue to escalate its proxy attacks, taking advantage of the American administration’s fear of a new military front, and may succeed in driving a wedge between the United States and Israel.[/size]
[size=45]He added that the Iranian regime's cautious approach to escalation and hesitation in directly attacking American soldiers belies its rhetoric and reveals Tehran's rational fear of confrontation with the American army.[/size]
[size=45]The report concluded by saying that exploiting this fear will deter Iran, and that if the United States is serious about deterring Iran and protecting the lives and safety of its forces in the region, it will use the Soleimani assassination model as a prime example of a successful strategy.[/size]
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