March 3, 2024A Concluding Statement describes the preliminary findings of IMF staff at the end of an official staff visit (or ‘mission’), in most cases to a member country. Missions are undertaken as part of regular (usually annual) consultations under Article IV of the IMF's Articles of Agreement, in the context of a request to use IMF resources (borrow from the IMF), as part of discussions of staff monitored programs, or as part of other staff monitoring of economic developments.
The authorities have consented to the publication of this statement. The views expressed in this statement are those of the IMF staff and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF’s Executive Board. Based on the preliminary findings of this mission, staff will prepare a report that, subject to management approval, will be presented to the IMF Executive Board for discussion and decision.
March 3, 2024:
An International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission, led by Mr. Jean-Guillaume Poulain, met with the Iraqi authorities in Amman during February 20–29 to conduct the 2024 Article IV consultation. The following statement was issued at the end of the mission:Economic growth is projected to continue amid fiscal expansion. Meanwhile, medium-term vulnerabilities to oil price volatility have increased significantly. Reducing oil dependence and ensuring fiscal sustainability while protecting critical social and investment spending will require a significant fiscal adjustment, focused on controlling the public wage bill and increasing non-oil tax revenues. In parallel, higher economic growth will be needed to absorb the rapidly expanding labor force, boost non-oil exports and broaden the tax base. The authorities should therefore seek to enable private sector development, including through labor market reforms, modernization of the financial sector and restructuring of state-owned banks, pension and electricity sector reforms, and continued efforts to improve governance and reduce corruption.
Economic Outlook and RisksGrowth in the non-oil sector has rebounded strongly in 2023 while inflation receded.
Supported by increases in public expenditure and solid agricultural output, real non-oil GDP is estimated to have grown by 6 percent in 2023 after stalling in 2022. Headline inflation declined from a high of 7.5 percent in January 2023 to 4 percent by year-end, reflecting lower international food and energy prices, and the impact of the February 2023 currency revaluation. The current account is expected to have recorded a surplus of 2.6 percent of GDP and international reserves increased to US$ 112 billion.
These positive developments were supported by the normalization of trade finance and the stabilization of FX market.
After some initial disruptions following the introduction of new anti-money laundering and combating financing of terrorism (AML/CFT) controls on cross-border payments in November 2022, the improved compliance with the new system and the Central Bank of Iraq (CBI)’s initiatives to cut processing time led to a recovery in trade finance in the second half of 2023. This ensured private sector access to foreign exchange at the official rate for imports and travel purposes.
In the meantime, the fiscal position worsened.
Although the expansionary budget was under-executed due to delayed Parliamentary approval, the fiscal balance still declined from a surplus of 10.8 percent of GDP in 2022 to a deficit of 1.3 percent in 2023, due to lower oil revenues and an increase in expenditures by 8 percentage points of GDP, of which salaries and pensions contributed 5 percentage points as the authorities started hiring in line with the budget law.
Overall growth is projected to rebound in 2024 and risks are tilted downwards amid heightened uncertainty.
Non-oil growth momentum will continue in 2024. Larger declines in oil prices or extended OPEC+ cuts could weigh on fiscal and external accounts. If regional tensions escalate, a disruption of shipping routes or damage to the oil infrastructure could result in oil production losses that could outweigh the potential positive impact of higher oil prices. In case of a deterioration in domestic security conditions, this could lead to a decline in business sentiment and suspension of investment projects. Over the medium term, non-oil growth is projected to stabilize around 2.5 percent given existing hurdles to private sector development. Furthermore, vulnerability to oil price declines has increased as higher expenditures are projected to push the fiscal break-even oil price above $90 in 2024. Absent new policy measures, the fiscal deficit is expected to reach 7.6 percent in 2024 and widen further thereafter as oil prices are projected to gradually decline over the medium term. As a consequence, public debt would almost double from 44 percent in 2023 to 86 percent by 2029.
Policy PrioritiesAn ambitious fiscal adjustment would be required to help stabilize debt in the medium term and rebuild fiscal buffers, while protecting critical capital spending.
Most of the fiscal adjustment would have to come from reducing current expenditure, especially controlling the wage bill by limiting mandatory hiring and gradually introducing an attrition rule. The authorities should also seek to increase non-oil revenues by broadening the personal income tax base and making it more progressive, reviewing the customs tariff structure, and considering new taxes on luxury items. In parallel, efforts to make revenue and customs administration more efficient should continue. Further savings could be obtained through better targeting social support and increasing cost recovery within the electricity sector. These adjustment measures should provide room for the expansion of the targeted social safety net.
The authorities should also strengthen public financial management and limit fiscal risks.
The mission welcomes initial steps towards the establishment of a Treasury Single Account (TSA), which is crucial to improve cash management. Further progress is needed and close cooperation between the CBI and Ministry of Finance will be essential. The next steps are to define TSA design options and complete the bank account census. In future years, overall ceilings on the issuance of guarantees should be specified in the budget law and be enforced. The mission advise against the use of extrabudgetary funds and highlights potential fiscal risks associated with their use. As a second best, it would be important to ensure the Iraq Fund for Development has appropriate governance arrangements, including governing board independence while ensuring transparency of the Fund’s activities including by publishing its investment plans in the annual budget documentation and restricting its ability to borrow.
The mission encourages the authorities to build on the CBI welcomed efforts to reduce excess liquidity.
The CBI appropriately raised the policy interest rate and reserve requirements, introduced a 14-day CBI bill facility last summer, and scaled back its subsidized lending to the real estate sector. However, monetary policy pass-through has been muted, hampered by large excess liquidity and lack of market incentives in financial intermediaries, especially at state-owned banks. The CBI’s ongoing efforts should be supported by consolidating idle government deposits in a TSA, refraining from procyclical fiscal policy, reducing the reliance on monetary finance, and improving public debt management. In parallel, efforts to develop an interbank market with the help of IMF technical assistance should continue. The mission also welcomes the authorities’ steps to ""speed up the digitalization of the economy"", reduce the reliance on cash and enhance financial inclusion.
Wide-ranging structural reforms are needed to foster private sector development and economic diversification.
Iraq needs higher and more sustainable non-oil growth to absorb the rapidly growing labor force, increase non-oil exports and government revenue, and reduce the economy’s vulnerability to oil price shocks. Key reform priorities include:Adopting a comprehensive employment strategy aimed at phasing-out mandatory hiring in the public sector, leveling the playing field between public and private jobs, addressing mismatches between educational curricula and the skills needed in the private sector, and strengthening labor market institutions. The strategy should also aim at reducing informality and addressing legal, social, and cultural impediments to women’s participation in the workforce.
""Accelerating financial sector reform to improve access to credit"".
The authorities are committed to modernizing the banking sector and supporting banks’ ability to secure correspondent banking relationships and have taken steps towards consolidation of small private banks. Efforts to restructure the two largest state-owned banks should intensify, including by expediting certification of past financial statements and implementation of core banking systems, and enhancing corporate governance in line with best practices.
Implementing a comprehensive pension reform.
This is urgently needed to reduce the overall projected fiscal costs of the public pension scheme, better align the benefits and rules across the public and private schemes, ensure adequacy of pensions and intergenerational equity, and increase the ratio of workers participating in the private pension scheme.
Combating corruption and improving governance,
particularly by strengthening the institutional and legal frameworks needed to ensure the independence of the Integrity Commission and the Board of Supreme Audit, enhancing the publication of assets and conflicts of interests declarations for top level officials, and adopting an updated anticorruption strategy. Further, public procurement and business regulations should also be enhanced. The authorities should also continue to strengthen the AML/CFT framework and its effectiveness, including in the banking sector, guided by the priority actions identified in the MENAFATF Mutual Evaluation that will be concluded in May 2024.
Removing other hurdles to private sector development by reforming the electricity sector to improve efficiency, cost recovery, and reliable access; simplifying procedures for business registration; and upgrading critical infrastructure.
The IMF staff team stands ready to support the authorities in their reform efforts and would like to thank them for constructive and productive discussions during this mission.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Here is the officical conclusion. It is again a good over review. The whole idea behgind the Tripartite was to go to a market economy to get releif from oil rent. The non-oil revenue streams will fill the gap and then some. Lets see what significant fiscal adjustment they'll uss to ensure fiscal sustaiability while protecting critical social and investment spending. I should imagine that there will be a strong currency to go with the strong store of reserves they hold. The non-oil sectors will provide significant support to revenues to off set any or all oil shocks..A good report this is and it shows there is not stopping the digitalization of their economy going forward. The road map is in play.. imo ~ MM | | | |
Home
» PM stresses Iraq's aspiration to strengthen cooperation and partnership with the US within the Strat
» US dollar exchange rate increases in Iraq
» Iraq reviews cooperation with Honeywell in energy sector
» Environment: US withdrawal from Paris climate agreement threatens Iraq
» Users having a birthday today : dcbelanger
» Central Bank: Closing the electronic platform enhances financial stability
» UGT donates feasibility study to Iraq on bringing solar energy to homes
» "Oil Money Is Not Enough" Parliament's Finance
» "Oil Money Is Not Enough" Parliament's Finance
» Clarification of the importance of the Central Bank’s decision to ban the sale of real estate above
» Signing a memorandum of understanding with British Petroleum / BP regarding a program to evaluate th
» Al-Sudani receives in London the CEO of GE for the Europe, Middle East and Africa region
» Iraq, General Electric discuss energy initiatives
» Shell plans to increase investments in Iraq
» Iraq’s economic growth forecast for 2024: A promising path forward
» Parliamentary Finance: Banking reform enhances Iraq's global
» Localization.. Signs of positive development to support the national economy
» Experts call for activating the agriculture and industry sectors
» The Central Bank of Iraq directs banks to spread and expand their financial services
» Al-Sudani: British exports to Iraq exceeded $1 billion in 2024, and its companies concluded contrac
» Above $80.. New rise in oil prices
» Coordination Framework announces agreement to move forward with budget amendments to achieve "social
» I regret to inform you after 20 yrs of postings
» Central Bank of Iraq sells over $1.16 billion in foreign currency
» Iraq-China trade cooperation reaches $50 billion in 11 months
» Salih: Iraq ranks first in the world in the concentration of natural resources
» PM Advisor: The monetary enhancement mechanism will safeguard financial stability in the country
» Government Adviser: Non-Oil GDP Growth in 2024 Reaches Unprecedented Levels
» Parliament conforms to World Bank on the importance of government infrastructure in development
» PM: Restructuring government banks to ensure the availability of capabilities and openness with glob
» entral Bank: There is no financial problem threatening employees’ salaries and we have great capabil
» Basra crude achieves weekly gains amid rising oil markets
» The dollar falls against the dinar in Baghdad and Erbil with the closing at the beginning of the wee
» PM Al-Sudani eyes tourism as a cornerstone of Iraq’s non-oil economy
» PMF Chief: Iraq's armed forces at their strongest
» INA discusses exchange rates files, foreign transfers, and housing initiatives with the CBI governor
» Government Adviser: Non-Oil GDP Growth in 2024 Reaches Unprecedented Levels
» Parliament conforms to World Bank on the importance of government infrastructure in development
» Iraq exports oil worth over $5 billion to US in 11 months
» Iraq’s Ministry of Oil announces 2024 petroleum product sales
» US dollar exchange rate continues to decline in Iraq
» Iraq completes 400-kilometer security border wall with Syria
» Iraq collaborates with Ernst & Young on state-owned bank reforms
» Kurdistan records a significant increase in the number of imported cars during 2024
» The Ministry of Justice announces the implementation of the electronic payment system in all notary
» The Ministry of Justice counts the achievements and activities achieved during the past year accordi
» Central Bank: We have started working with the correspondent banking system
» Is the Ministry of Finance hiding the facts?.. An expert reveals the main reason for the shortage of
» Reconstruction: 2025 plan includes 70 external road projects
» Economist: The government is obligated to pay salaries as it is a matter of fate
» The Central Bank of Iraq opens new horizons in foreign transfers and enhances international financia
» Judge Zidane and Al-Sudani are the first to disclose their financial assets in 2025
» Oil Price: Trump's Team Considers 'Direct Sanctions' on Iraq That Will Hit Oil
» Parliamentary Integrity: The amounts recovered from the “theft of the century” do not exceed 5%, and
» Dinars entering the Ministry of Finance are 20% less than the amount it needs.. Iraqis start their n
» Mazhar Saleh: No salary crisis and financial reserves cover liquidity completely
» Central Bank announces major achievement in foreign transfers
» Confirmation that America is putting pressure on Al-Sudani to transform the Iraqi regime into "secul
» Warnings of the dangers of the Turkish-Zionist-American plan to destabilize Iraq
» Expert: Iraqi economy is stable despite changes in the dollar market
» Economist praises ASYCUDA automation system: A step towards achieving important resources
» More than $60 billion in Iraqi currency auction sales in 2024
» Is there a salary crisis in Iraq? Al-Sudani’s advisor explains
» The Central Bank decides to suspend withdrawals and deposits for four days
» Al-Sudani Office announces the implementation of the global ASYCUDA system to automate customs opera
» The leaders “reconciled” and the amendment of the electoral law is “a done deal”.. What does this da
» With the document .. MP Sand files a complaint against the Ministry of Finance .. for this reason
» Parliamentary Finance: The government is working to enhance non-oil revenues
» The 10 most indebted Arab countries in 2024.. This is Iraq's rank
» utube 12/27/24 MM&C MM&C Iraq Dinar News-Iraqs Wealth Fund-National Currency-Arab World Volume Tra
» utube 12/28/24 Iraq - CBI Governor Makes an Announcement, Digital Banking Expansion
» utube 12/29/24 MM&C MM&C Iraq Dinar News-Digital Transformation-Global Economic Power-USA-Imminent
» utube 12/31/24 MM&C MM&C Iraq Dinar News-Commemorative Coin?-Investment Attractive-Dollar Auction
» Al-Sudani chairs expanded meeting to review Oil Ministry projects
» Prime Minister stresses importance of investing best opportunities to maximize state revenues
» Prime Minister's Office announces implementation of ASYCUDA global system for automating customs ope
» Judiciary: Recovering 12 billion dinars for financial fraud crime
» US-Iranian Tension: Iraq Between Competition and Mediation Role After Trump’s Return
» MP confirms settlement of controversy over ministerial amendments
» National Union: Time is no longer sufficient for the dialogue on the oil and gas law to mature
» Economist: Relying on oil as a source of revenue will have serious consequences
» Al-Maliki: Repeated amendments to the election law weaken voter confidence in the political process
» Parliamentary Legal: Interrogating ministers and officials is still subject to political agreements
» Due to the American veto, Iraq suffers from a weak armament in the face of regional developments
» What is holding up the passage of the oil and gas law so far?
» New Cabinet Resolutions Package
» Experts speak to {Sabah} about the most important economic events in 2024
» Al-Sudani stresses the importance of review and investing the best opportunities to maximize state r
» With more than 30 billion dollars... a leap in the projects market in Iraq
» Central Bank of Iraq sells about $290 million in currency auction
» Customs: Our revenues increased by 128% during the current year
» Our Economic and Financial Vision for 2025 in Iraq
» How much of Iraq's electrical system has been lost due to the halt of Iranian gas?
» $31.7 billion is the increase in the value of its market projects in Iraq
» Turkmen gas will cover 50% of Iraq's stations' needs.. New details about the agreement
» Basra-Haditha oil pipeline.. will go to 5 countries and this is its value
» Early talk about postponing the elections is “evidence” of Iraq’s entry into the map of change in th
» New details on the incident of the "death of a US National Guard soldier" in Iraq - Urgent