OPEC Boosts Oil Output as Prices Slide to Four-Year Low

OPEC Boosts Oil Output as Prices Slide to Four-Year Low
By Mark Shenk Oct 31, 2014 8:38 AM CT




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www.opec.org\opec_web\en\index.htm" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">OPEC countries boosted oil output to a 14-month high in October as crude futures sank into a bear market, a Bloomberg survey showed yesterday.

Production by the 12-member Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries climbed by 53,000 barrels a day to 30.974 million, led by gains in Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Libya, according to the survey of oil companies, producers and analysts. Last month’s total was revised 14,000 barrels a day lower to 30.921 million because of changes to the Iraqi, Kuwaiti, Nigerian and Qatari estimates.


OPEC nations lifted output as Brent crude dropped to a four-year low amid ample global supplies and sluggish demand. The group’s biggest producers, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran and Kuwait, have cut their official selling prices, sparking speculation they will compete for market share rather than trim output. Ministers will gather next month to discuss the group’s production target.

“The data confirms that there’s a battle over market share,” John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital LLC, a New York-based hedge fund that focuses on energy, said by phone yesterday. “The members are playing chicken with the market.”

Brent crude for December settlement slipped 88 cents, or 1 percent, to $86.24 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange yesterday. Prices declined $1.35, or 1.6 percent, to $84.89 at 9:12 a.m. in New York. Brent, the benchmark for more than half the world’s oil, touched $82.60 on Oct. 16, the lowest since November 2010 and down more than 20 percent from its June high, meeting the common definition of a bear market.

West Texas Intermediate fell 1.3 percent to $81.12 on the New York Mercantile Exchange yesterday. WTI reached $79.44 Oct. 27, the least since June 2012. Futures dropped $1.25, or 1.5 percent, to $79.87 today.

U.S. Production

OPEC is also seeing demand for its crude drop as U.S. crude production surges. U.S. output rose 0.4 percent to 8.97 million barrels a day last week, the highest in weekly Energy Information Administration estimates that began in January 1983. The agency’s monthly data, which goes back to 1920 and is based on data collected by state and federal agencies, shows production at the highest since 1986.
“The members of OPEC are in a tough position,” Mike Wittner, head of oil market research at Societe Generale SA in New York, said by phone yesterday. “The lack of action so far shows that the Saudis are serious about other members doing their part.”
Iraqi output climbed 150,000 barrels a day to 3.3 million this month, according to the survey. It was the biggest gain in October and left the country pumping the most oil since May.

Saudi Concern

Saudi Arabia, the group’s biggest producer, bolstered output by 100,000 barrels a day to 9.75 million this month to meet demand from two new refineries, Yasref and Satorp.
“The Saudis seem to be more concerned about their volumes than about falling prices,” Kilduff said.
Libyan output climbed by 70,000 barrels a day to 850,000 this month, the sixth straight increase. It was the highest level since June 2013. The country’s current output is about half what it was before the 2011 rebellion that ended Muammar Qaddafi’s 42-year rule.
Angolan output dropped by 170,000 barrels a day to 1.7 million, the biggest decline in October. The country will pump 2 million barrels a day next year, Petroleum Minister Jose Maria Botelho de Vasconcelos said last month in Jornal de Angola.
OPEC ministers kept their output target unchanged at 30 million barrels a day on June 11 in Vienna. The group is scheduled to meet next on Nov. 27.

Support Prices

“There’s a lot of dissension in the cartel,” Kilduff said. “It appears that most members want the Saudis to make the cuts needed to support prices and they’re not inclined to oblige. The Nov. 27 meeting could easily end without agreement, which would send the market another leg lower.”
The group last cut quotas in December 2008 at a meeting in Oran, Algeria, amid the global financial crisis. OPEC trimmed its target by 2.46 million barrels a day, in response to the crisis that sent WTI tumbling from a record $147.27 a barrel in July 2008 to a low of $32.40 in December of the same year.
“This could be an ugly meeting, taking much longer than we’ve come to expect,” Wittner said. “I bet OPEC will eventually come to an agreement where we won’t see cuts just from the Saudis, Kuwait and the UAE. They will demand that countries like Venezuela and Iran make painful cuts as well.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Mark Shenk in New York at mshenk1@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story: David Marino at dmarino4@bloomberg.net Stephen Cunningham, Bill Banker

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