Conflict escalates in the Middle East, warning of Iraq slipping deeper into confrontation

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[size=52]Conflict escalates in the Middle East, warning of Iraq slipping deeper into confrontation[/size]

[size=45]Coinciding with a drone attack carried out by Iraqi factions on the Israeli port of Eilat, tensions are heightened by Iraq slipping into an “asymmetric” war without air defenses. Some have held the Coordination Framework responsible for this, and wondered why the factions did not follow Tehran, which distanced itself from the war.
Political analyst Nizar Haidar says, “The insistence of the armed factions to continue their activities against Israel from Iraqi territory raises a lot of suspicion and doubt, as if a hidden hand is seeking to implicate Iraq in the current serious crisis in the region, which everyone is trying to avoid in any way, except for the factions that operate outside the authority of the state, bypassing the constitution, the law, and the strategic policies adopted by the state and the various political forces currently participating in the state’s legislative and executive institutions.”
Haidar warns against “Iraq getting involved in a conflict beyond its capacity. If it is dragged into this asymmetric war, it may be exposed to bombing and cyber warfare that it is unable to confront, let alone practice and employ. If the Lebanese resistance, which has nearly half a century of experience in wars and confrontations, failed to protect itself from this type of war, what will Iraq do, whose sovereignty is still subject to the decision of the American ambassador?”
He notes that “Iraq is not in a state of war with the Zionist entity, nor any party in the region. If it wants to enter a calculated war, it must make the decision to go to war within the framework of Article 61 (ninth) of the constitution, which says in its discussion of the powers of the House of Representatives [approving the declaration of war and a state of emergency by a two-thirds majority, based on a joint request from the President of the Republic and the Prime Minister],” noting that “war is not declared by a decision of an armed faction or by whim.”
The Washington-based political analyst wonders why the factions have not joined the direct war fronts with the Zionist entity, whether in Syria or Lebanon, if they were honest in their slogans, noting that “the factions have been announcing their bombing of the Zionist entity for a year, without anything changing. Have they protected Palestinian blood or stopped Zionist terrorism?”
During a television appearance yesterday, US President Joe Biden warned of the possibility of a “comprehensive war” in the Middle East, but he said, “I also believe that there is still a chance to reach a settlement that could radically change the entire region.”
Haidar holds “the Coordination Framework the greatest responsibility if Iraq slips into this war, as it is the largest parliamentary bloc that formed the government, and it supports it in every way, and it also has good relations and noticeable communication with the armed factions that operate outside the authority of the state.”
He concludes that “Tehran’s decision was to distance itself from waging war and to rely on its proxies, fearing for its national security and protecting its supreme strategic interests. It is a smart and wise decision,” wondering “why the Iraqi factions did not follow the example of Tehran, the leader of the axis of resistance.” The
“Islamic Resistance in Iraq” carried out a drone attack on the Red Sea city of Eilat on Wednesday evening, and announced that the attack was in response to the occupation’s massacres in Lebanon and Gaza, stressing “the continuation of operations to pound enemy strongholds at an escalating pace.”
Israeli army spokesman Daniel Hagari said that the attack resulted in two people being slightly injured, noting that the Saar 5 missile ship intercepted a drone while another fell in the city of Eilat, adding that “the army is monitoring the threats coming from Iraq and is collecting information and will do what is necessary,” according to his expression.
For his part, security researcher Alaa Al-Nashou believes that “small drones that cannot carry heavy equipment cannot disrupt the military balance of the opponent because drones can never hit field and market targets of the opponent, as they are used to hit some facilities to cause confusion only, while comprehensive destruction is impossible because the level of the missile or the payload affects an area that does not exceed a few square meters, and it cannot exceed the destructive power of a ballistic missile or a fighter jet missile.”
Al-Nashou believes that “effective military action depends on the extent of influence on the opponent, both morally and materially. If the strike has a limited effect, then the operation, no matter how much media capabilities are provided for it, is considered a failure and useless in the concept of military deterrence, and is called in military science a field error and misjudgment of the situation.”
He believes that “the Iraqi factions’ targeting of Israeli sites deep inside or in areas adjacent to the Lebanese and Palestinian borders to relieve the destructive Israeli pressure, may have adverse effects on the Lebanese interior and may even push Israel to strike with greater destructive power, especially when it adopts the concept of scorched earth or direct and comprehensive destruction according to the requirements of traditional warfare with high levels of deterrence.”
“The Israeli Air Force has great technical capabilities and potential in addition to combat effectiveness, as it has carried out devastating strikes. Israel has very advanced aircraft in attacking targets, and there is no air defense system in the region that can shoot them down,” he stressed, noting that “the first of these countries that lacks this confrontation is Iraq, because all air defense systems, including the new French system, cannot withstand the Israeli air effort for minutes when it enters Iraqi airspace.”
In light of this information, the security expert expects that “the Israeli response, if it takes place, will be very harsh, and the levels of destruction will be unexpected for the faction that made the decision to strike Israel at a time when Israel is waging a multi-faceted and diverse war in terms of style and form. It has used technical and information warfare alongside direct warfare, then transformed into a comprehensive and destructive war.”
After the “pager” operations that targeted Hezbollah elements in Lebanon last week, and the start of the exchange of fire with Israel, many Iraqi faction leaders showed unlimited support for the Lebanese Hezbollah, and responded with drones to Israel, while some of them published calls on social media to volunteer to fight alongside it, and prepare “martyrs.”
On September 20, the Secretary-General of the “Sayyid al-Shuhada Brigades,” Abu Alaa al-Walaei, announced, after the bombings that took place in Lebanon, which became known as the pager bombings, his readiness to send 100,000 fighters to fight alongside Hezbollah in Lebanon.
For his part, security expert Adnan Al-Kanani points out that “if the Israeli responses occur, they will be against the resistance as individuals or the headquarters of the factions, but the resistance is challenging this response because it is continuing and will respond with a stronger response, because it has equipment and weapons, and it is now targeting military targets. If the aggression against civilians and the safe continues, the resistance will be forced to target the Israeli settlers wherever they are.”
Regarding Iraq’s defensive position in the event of an attack, Al-Kanani confirms that “Iraq does not have an air defense system,” attributing this to “the government’s courtesy of the American will, and its failure to seek to possess air defense systems.”
He points out that “the factions are adopting alternative methods, which are changing military headquarters and moving away from communication systems entirely, because they pose a danger and a threat,” noting that “the resistance possesses new equipment that distances tracking, surveillance, and radars.”
It is noteworthy that the Hezbollah Brigades in Iraq have decided to send military brigades to the Bekaa region in Lebanon to support the Lebanese Hezbollah, and their number is estimated at between six and seven thousand fighters.
The leader of the Al-Nujaba Movement, Akram Al-Kaabi, confirmed in a message of condolence to Nasrallah that “the Islamic resistance in Iraq is continuing its operations within the Iraqi support front in support of Palestine and the resistance in Gaza.”[/size]
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