Analysts and experts: Political forces did not learn from the 2014 experience and the “Aleppo scenar

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[size=52]Analysts and experts: Political forces did not learn from the 2014 experience and the “Aleppo scenario” may move to Iraq[/size]

[size=45]Baghdad/ Tamim Al-Hassan[/size]
[size=45]Defense Minister Thabet al-Abbasi arrived in Sinjar, the border city with Syria, which witnessed the worst humanitarian violations committed by ISIS against the population 10 years ago.
For days, Iraqis have been recalling memories of the fall of Mosul, whose eleventh anniversary of liberation is approaching in more than a week, with the disturbing news coming from Syria about the collapse of Syrian forces in Aleppo in the face of the advance of jihadist factions.
A statement from the Ministry of Defense yesterday said that al-Abbasi’s visit to Sinjar came “to review the security situation within the sector and inspect the border strip between Iraq and Syria.”
Syria is linked to Iraq by a border that extends for more than 600 kilometers.
The defense minister arrived in the western Nineveh operations sector in Sinjar, accompanied by the deputy chief of staff of the army for operations and joint operations and the commander of the ground forces, according to the statement.
Al-Abbasi stressed that the army, with all its branches and formations, “is ready and continues its mission to protect Iraq’s borders and skies from any danger, alongside the rest of our heroes in the other security forces.”
“We are vigilant day and night for your security and the security of Iraq, and we will not allow any terrorist or saboteur to infiltrate our beloved country,” he added, according to a statement issued on Friday.
Iraq faces a shortage in its air defense system, but it has put in place intensive ground measures on the border.
The spokesman for the commander-in-chief of the armed forces, Major General Yahya Rasool, confirmed that “behind the border forces are the Iraqi army sectors to secure these areas.”
He explained in press statements that the border is fortified “through border forces, thermal cameras and drones.”
In June 2014, ISIS announced what was known as “Breaking the Border,” in which scenes included the group’s members entering Iraqi territory from the Syrian border.
At a critical stage,
retired Major General Safaa al-Aasam said that what happened in Aleppo “was surprising in terms of plans and speed of progress, and this is very worrying for Iraq.”
The escalation in Syria between the Syrian army and armed factions continues, as this is the first time that the factions have entered Aleppo, Syria’s second largest city, since the Syrian army regained full control over it in 2016.
Al-Aasam confirmed in a phone call with (Al-Mada) that “the number of militants participating in the Aleppo operation is 300,000, and they moved three hours after the ceasefire in Lebanon. This requires equipment, including clothing and weapons, that will take no less than six months.”
The attack began during a critical stage in the region with a fragile ceasefire in Lebanon between Israel and Hezbollah, which has been fighting alongside Syrian regime forces for years.
Al-Aasam believes that “the militants in Syria may expand geographically towards Iraq, where there are six camps housing ISIS prisoners and their families, most notably the Al-Hawl camp, which houses six thousand families.”
Al-Aasam downplays the impact of the movement of “sleeper cells” inside Iraq, saying: “The remnants of the organization do not exceed 2,000 members, and most of them are isolated.”
Armed factions are almost completely present in Aleppo's neighborhoods, according to the Syrian Observatory, with the Syrian forces completely withdrawing from the city and their absence in a large number of neighborhoods.
The political advisor to the Prime Minister, Fadi Al-Shammari, called on the people of Nineveh, Anbar and Salahuddin provinces to “not believe rumors,” asking them in a tweet on the “X” platform to quickly “report suspicious cases targeting the security of their cities and not allow the enemy to infiltrate through the gaps.”
Political analysis
Politically, Ihsan Al-Shammari, a professor of public policy at the University of Baghdad, believes that Iraq will quickly be affected by the Syrian geography in terms of security, politics and economy, “because this is history, and what happened in 2014 is the best evidence of that.”
He said: “What happened in Aleppo represents a struggle to draw a new influence in the region, and a struggle between the group of (the five) countries: Turkey, Syria, Israel, America and Iran.”
He added: “Syria should have moved to a new formula for governance and implemented previous agreements, but it did not address the presence of these groups and did not reach agreements with some countries.”
Al-Shammari pointed out that “the fall of Aleppo so quickly brought back to the Iraqi mind the memory of the fall of the city of Mosul, and Iraq still faces a major challenge in light of the requirements of dismantling Iranian influence and the weapons of the factions.”
He stressed that “Iraq is part of a new equation in the Middle East in which influence is drawn, and borders may not be drawn in the medium term, but Iraq is part of the new arrangement.”
Al-Shammari believes that “the political forces did not learn from the lessons of 2014 or the 2019 protests, indicating that Iraq is facing very major changes that call for internal concern.”[/size]
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