Events in Syria... Are Iraq approaching the 2014 scenario?

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[size=52]Events in Syria... Are Iraq approaching the 2014 scenario?[/size]

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2024-12-01
In the past three days, armed groups in Syria have been remarkably active, and have been able to seize major cities within hours, including Aleppo, the second largest city in Syria after the capital Damascus, in exchange for a government military collapse, amidst a major Iraqi security alert to control the borders, in anticipation of any breach that might repeat the 2014 scenario that witnessed the fall of Iraq’s second largest city (Mosul) into the hands of ISIS.[/size]
[size=45]Iraqi observers attributed what is happening in Syria to an international American-Turkish-Israeli move aimed at reducing Russian influence, expanding Ankara’s influence in Syria, and securing the Golan front, suggesting that Iraqi armed factions are likely to intervene in the fighting alongside the Syrian regime. However, a Syrian opposition analyst denied international intervention and confirmed that it is a “people’s revolution” against the Bashar al-Assad regime, which is the same opinion held by a Turkish political analyst.[/size]
[size=45]Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and allied factions have taken control of three-quarters of the city of Aleppo in northern Syria, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. This is the first time armed factions have entered Aleppo since President Bashar al-Assad's regime regained full control of the city in 2016.[/size]
[size=45]The attack began during a critical phase in the Middle East, with a fragile ceasefire in effect in Lebanon between Israel and the Lebanese Hezbollah, which has been fighting for years alongside regime forces in Syria.[/size]
[size=45]Israel and the Golan Heights[/size]
[size=45]A political analyst close to the Prime Minister, Aid Al-Hilali, said in an interview with “Al-Alam Al-Jadeed” that “the situation in Syria is very worrying, and the crisis there has been ongoing for years, despite the entry of major countries into this conflict.”[/size]
[size=45]Al-Hilali explains, “In Syria, especially in Idlib, there are groups supported by American forces, and there are forces supported by Turkey, and if we want to dismantle the conflict in Syria, we must know who benefits.”[/size]
[size=45]He added, "Iraq is very concerned about these developments, but the security establishment has reassured the Iraqi people, in addition to the fact that the United States is working to prevent ISIS from regaining its strength, according to its agreement with the Iraqi government."[/size]
[size=45]It is likely that Israel is also behind supporting this armed movement, in order to “secure the Golan front, to which Hezbollah may move its battle if the ceasefire agreement ends.”[/size]
[size=45]The Syrian armed groups continued their way towards the northern countryside of Aleppo, and took control, yesterday afternoon, Saturday, of the towns of Nubl and Zahraa, which are inhabited by a Shiite majority, and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard had sent many fighters after 2012 to break the siege on them.[/size]
[size=45]Armed groups began a military operation towards Aleppo International Airport, while others headed to carry out an attack in the eastern countryside of Aleppo, through which they took control of the city of Taduf, adjacent to the city of Al-Bab.[/size]
[size=45]These groups, supported by Turkey, are also preparing to launch another military operation in the coming hours, in order to control the city of Tal Rifaat, where Syrian regime forces and fighters from the Kurdish SDF are deployed.[/size]
[size=45]Iraqi factions intervene[/size]
[size=45]For his part, political analyst close to Iraqi armed factions, Imad Al-Musafir, accused “Turkey, America and Israel of participating in these events,” during an interview with “Al-Alam Al-Jadeed,” explaining that “Turkey has mobilized the Syrian opposition factions and exploited the current situation and preoccupation with the Gaza and Lebanon wars, with the aim of expanding its influence in Syria, while America aims to draw a new scenario in the region, of which Syria is a part, and this scenario aims to weaken Russia through the Syrian file.”[/size]
[size=45]The traveler adds, “Israel has contact with the opposition factions, including the Al-Nusra Front, which is part of its movement, and it is likely to support it with weapons and money, for the purpose of weakening the Syrian regime and the resistance axis front.”[/size]
[size=45]He rules out “a repetition of what happened in Iraq in 2014, due to the high readiness of the Iraqi security forces, in addition to the presence of the Popular Mobilization Forces, which enjoy great power, not to mention the state of awareness that the Iraqi citizen now enjoys, especially in the western cities and Sunni provinces.”[/size]
[size=45]Regarding the participation of Iraqi factions in Syria, the political analyst confirms, “If the matter develops, the intervention of the factions will be certain to defend the Shiite sanctities, including the shrine of Sayyida Zainab in the capital, Damascus.”[/size]
[size=45]Deputy Commander of Joint Operations, Lieutenant General Qais Al-Muhammadawi, announced yesterday, Saturday, that the borders are completely closed and that we are committed to the orders of the Commander-in-Chief to protect Iraq.[/size]
[size=45]Al-Muhammadawi had previously confirmed that the country's borders with Syria are secured through military deployment, concrete blocks, thermal cameras, and drone flights. He revealed that other security fortifications have been taken to secure the borders through barbed wire and the deployment of various units of the army and the Popular Mobilization Forces, approximately seven to ten kilometers behind the borders, approximately seven kilometers away.[/size]
[size=45]Syria: People's Revolution[/size]
[size=45]Meanwhile, the Syrian political analyst who opposes his country’s government, Ahmed Youssef, said in an interview with “Al-Alam Al-Jadeed” that “what happened in Syria is the result of popular will, and there is no interference by any international party.”[/size]
[size=45]Youssef, a supporter of the armed movement in his country, points out that “the Syrian opposition exploited the weakness of the Lebanese Hezbollah, Russia’s preoccupation with the Ukrainian file, in addition to the Iraqi factions’ preoccupation with Israeli threats, and Iran’s preoccupation with the economic crisis, and thus saw that it was the right time to move and exploit the weakness of Bashar al-Assad’s regime and the lack of supporters for him.”[/size]
[size=45]Regarding the relationship between these groups and extremist organizations, he points out that “the Syrian factions have an internal affair and have no relationship with ISIS or other extremist organizations. Even the fighters in the Free Army (formerly) corrected the mistakes they made years ago, and today they are trying to win the people’s favor. After taking control of Aleppo, they will head toward other areas, most importantly Homs and Deir ez-Zor, which are the areas most opposed to the Assad regime.”[/size]
[size=45]The Syrian army announced yesterday, Saturday, the killing of dozens of its forces as a result of the attack carried out by armed opposition factions in Aleppo and Idlib during the past few days, adding that its withdrawal from some areas is a “redeployment” in order to prepare for a “counterattack.”[/size]
[size=45]Yesterday, the commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, Lieutenant General Hossein Salami, confirmed the killing of the head of the Iranian military advisory corps in Syria, Major General Kioumarq Pourhashemi, nicknamed Haj Hashem, at the hands of militants.[/size]
[size=45]Türkiye: Natural Result[/size]
[size=45]In addition, Turkish political analyst Mahmoud Oktay, during an interview with “Al-Alam Al-Jadeed”, explained that “what is happening in Syria is a natural result of developments in the region, and the new scenario drawn up for the Middle East after Donald Trump’s arrival to the presidency of the United States of America.”[/size]
[size=45]He denies “the accusations directed at Turkey of being behind these events, as they are not true, and Ankara has nothing to do with what is happening, and has not provided any support to the Syrian armed factions,” stressing that “what happened is a natural result of the Syrian regime headed by Bashar al-Assad not making any attempt at reforms, responding to the opposition, providing a peaceful solution to the crisis, and learning from what happened in the past years.”[/size]
[size=45]“The Syrian regime is currently at its weakest point, because it lost its biggest supporter, Hezbollah, which was preoccupied with the conflict with Israel and was weakened as a result of the war. Russia, which is isolated from the world, cannot move militarily as it did in 2014. The collapsing economic situation in Syria and the regime’s actions are all strengths for the opposition, which made it exploit this timing and take control of the second largest Syrian city. It seems that America does not mind what is happening, to spite Russia.”[/size]
[size=45]Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan denied his country's involvement in the fighting in Aleppo, noting that Ankara would take the necessary precautions against a possible wave of displacement.[/size]
[size=45]Last night, Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani made a phone call to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, in which he stressed that Syria’s security and stability are linked to Iraq’s national security, and affect regional security in general, and efforts to establish stability in the Middle East.[/size]
[size=45]In the context of Arab solidarity with the Syrian government, UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed affirmed, during a phone call with his Syrian counterpart, that his country stands with the Syrian state and supports it in “fighting terrorism and establishing its sovereignty, territorial integrity and stability.”[/size]
[size=45]In addition, the Iranian Foreign Ministry announced that Minister Abbas Araghchi will embark on a regional tour. He will visit Damascus today, Sunday, to meet with President Bashar al-Assad, then to Ankara tomorrow, as part of a Middle Eastern tour.[/size]
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