American question: Will Iraq resort to Russia to help it in the coming ISIS threat?

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[size=52]American question: Will Iraq resort to Russia to help it in the coming ISIS threat?[/size]

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2024-12-06
The American “Hudson Institute” monitored the status and presence of ISIS in both Iraq and Syria, warning that it is re-emerging, but its Syrian danger is greater than its Iraqi danger at the present time, but the scene may become more inflamed with the completion of the implementation of the Iraqi-American agreement on the withdrawal of American forces by the end of 2026, which also means the American withdrawal from Syria, which will have major repercussions on the war on terrorism, wondering whether the Iraqi will resort to Russia to help him in this war after the Americans leave.[/size]
[size=45]On September 6, 2024, the United States and Iraq reached an agreement on plans to withdraw the US-led “global coalition against ISIS” from Iraq and Syria. Under the plan, there would be an initial withdrawal of troops from Iraq by September 2025, with the remainder leaving Iraqi Kurdistan by the end of 2026. This would also, in effect, mean a withdrawal from Syria, and this would have huge implications for the war against the Islamist groups.[/size]
[size=45]In an attempt to assess the current and future status of ISIS, the American Institute said, in a translated report, that it will try to shed light on how the organization has tried to recover over the past five years as it seeks to benefit from future changes in regional dynamics.[/size]
[size=45]While the American report said that ISIS in Iraq has become the weakest ever, it indicated that the organization in Syria “showed signs of rebuilding itself again.”[/size]
[size=45]Regarding the situation of ISIS in Iraq, the report said that there are positive stories, explaining that counter-terrorism efforts have achieved remarkable success, which has weakened the organization’s capabilities and the duration of its spread inside Iraq currently, noting that it no longer has an impact on daily life inside Iraq, and most of its attacks currently take place in rural areas or areas with low population density.[/size]
[size=45]The report noted that ISIS-related arrests by the Iraqi state and the Kurdistan Regional Government show that many remnants of the group from its days of regional control are still at large, and that current members continue to plan and operate.[/size]
[size=45]The report considered that it is necessary not to exaggerate the threat posed by ISIS, and at the same time caution must be exercised not to overemphasize the defeat of the organization in light of the history of the organization’s ability to return, which poses a particular danger now that the United States appears ready to withdraw from Iraq.[/size]
[size=45]According to the report, ISIS poses a complex threat that requires constant pressure to keep it under control, as its fighters still have the will to fight, albeit with less capacity than was previously possible.[/size]
[size=45]Attack Analysis[/size]
[size=45]The report stated that ISIS and its predecessor groups constitute one of the most bloody insurgencies in the world since the beginning of operations in Iraq in 2002, adding that while the organization expanded first in Syria and then in various other parts of the world, Iraq remained the most active and violent until 2022, when ISIS operations in Nigeria surpassed those recorded in Iraq.[/size]
[size=45]The report pointed out that since that time, ISIS activity in Iraq has continued to decline compared to other provinces of the organization, and Iraq ranked fifth in the organization’s operations in the first half of 2024, after Nigeria, Syria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Mozambique. The report reviewed these statistics to understand this sharp decline in the past five years:[/size]
[size=45]In 2019: 1,252 alleged attacks in Iraq[/size]
[size=45]In 2020: 1,459 alleged attacks[/size]
[size=45]In 2021: 1,127 alleged attacks[/size]
[size=45]In 2022: 484 alleged attacks[/size]
[size=45]In 2023: 151 alleged attacks[/size]
[size=45]In 2024: 66 alleged attacks (by November 14); with final figure expected to reach 75 by end of year[/size]
[size=45]According to the report, the current pace of alleged attacks represents a 49% decrease from last year’s total, and a 94% decrease since 2019.[/size]
[size=45]Therefore, the report considered that the Iraqi and Kurdistan Regional governments, in addition to the United States and the international coalition, clearly succeeded in weakening ISIS in Iraq and transforming it from a relatively strong insurgency in the late first decade of the 21st century, into a controllable terrorist challenge.[/size]
[size=45]To summarise the picture further, the report said that the average ISIS operations reached its peak in 2014, 28 attacks per day in Iraq, and by 2023, the average attacks reached only 0.3 attacks per day.[/size]
[size=45]Arrests[/size]
[size=45]The report found that as a result of the decline in the rate of attacks, much of the focus in recent years has been on the legal warfare aspect of the war against ISIS, through the arrest of elements, fighters, financiers, and others, explaining that since the beginning of 2023, the Iraqi government and the Kurdistan Regional Government have carried out 125 arrests against ISIS cells until November 18, 2024.[/size]
[size=45]But despite this data, the report says there are worrying indications that the group still poses a significant threat, particularly with regard to those who were active during the group's territorial control and who may still be operating undetected, waiting for an opportunity to exploit the changing political environment inside Iraq, especially if the United States withdraws.[/size]
[size=45]ISIS in Syria[/size]
[size=45]The report stated that until 2024, the pattern of attacks and arrests in Syria was largely similar to that in Iraq, but the Syrian context is different from the Iraqi context, as the organization does not appear to announce its attacks in Syria, and therefore the most worrying picture is that of Syria, where this country is still suffering from elements of civil war, and there is no single ruling authority controlling the entire country, referring to the state system supported by Russia and Iran, Shiite fighters, the Kurdish-led autonomous administration supported mainly by the United States, the Syrian Interim Authority supported by Turkey, in addition to the “Salvation Government” controlled by the jihadist groups represented by “Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham.”[/size]
[size=45]Therefore, the report says, this mixed rule allows ISIS to benefit from the security links between these political systems, each of which is trying to undermine the security of its other opponents.[/size]
[size=45]The report pointed to two developments that took place in October 2023, which served ISIS’s interests. The first was the drone attack carried out by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham on a graduation ceremony for a military college in Homs, which forced the Assad regime and its Russian allies to withdraw forces away from the western side of Deir ez-Zor Governorate to focus on attacking Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham in its stronghold in Idlib, northwest Syria, which gave ISIS more breathing room.[/size]
[size=45]The second development was what happened after the Hamas attack on October 7 and the subsequent response to the Israeli war in Gaza by the Iranian-backed Shiite militias in Iraq and Syria, as the Iranian-backed forces began targeting American bases in different parts of eastern Syria, indicating that the American forces were forced to reduce their activity against ISIS, including their work alongside the Syrian Democratic Forces.[/size]
[size=45]Therefore, the report finds that Syria has now become a much more complex space than Iraq and provides areas where ISIS can exploit the instability and competition between the various forces active in the Syrian conflict.[/size]
[size=45]The report warned that since ISIS lost its last semblance of territorial control in Syria in March 2019, the number of alleged attacks carried out by ISIS in Syria has declined significantly annually, but this situation changed in 2024, as alleged ISIS attacks increased, unlike the situation in Iraq, according to the following figures:[/size]
[size=45]In 2019: 1,055 alleged attacks[/size]
[size=45]In 2020: 608 alleged attacks[/size]
[size=45]In 2021: 368 alleged attacks[/size]
[size=45]In 2022: 297 alleged attacks[/size]
[size=45]In 2023: 121 alleged attacks[/size]
[size=45]In 2024: 259 known attacks so far, and may reach 296 by the end of the year[/size]
[size=45]The report pointed out that this last figure represents an increase of approximately 250% since 2023.[/size]
[size=45]The report warned that unlike what happened in Iraq, where there was no evidence that ISIS manipulated claims of attacks, there was significant evidence that the organization had deliberately not reported its attacks in Syria in order to appear weak.[/size]
[size=45]The report saw the importance of this as ISIS will benefit from the changing security environment once the United States withdraws from Syria at the end of 2026, adding that the evidence is strong that the Assad regime and its allies will not be able to fight ISIS to the same extent as the United States, the international coalition, and the Syrian Democratic Forces, especially given that the regime still views other actors such as the Turkish-backed “Syrian National Army,” “Hayat Tahrir al-Sham,” and the remnants of rebel groups in southern Syria, as greater threats to its rule than the threat posed by ISIS.[/size]
[size=45]The report warned that this ISIS policy was actually successful in that it lulled the United States and the international coalition into a false sense of accomplishment, noting that the organization is likely to be two to three times stronger than its claims alone suggest.[/size]
[size=45]The Future of ISIS in Iraq and Syria[/size]
[size=45]The US report stated that determining the future path of ISIS in Iraq and Syria will be largely determined by the future of the US military presence in the region, noting that reaching a bilateral agreement between Iraq and the United States could end the legal basis for the operation of US forces in Syria, adding that while ISIS is not as strong in Syria as it was a decade ago, it still maintains a strong insurgency and will undoubtedly benefit from the withdrawal of US forces.[/size]
[size=45]The report presented this scenario if the United States withdraws and the negative consequences of that: Turkey exploits the absence of the United States to escalate its attacks against the Syrian Democratic Forces, which are forced to withdraw from Deir Ezzor to protect the Kurdish heartland in Hasakah. Then ISIS exploits the situation by trying to get its former fighters out of the Syrian Democratic Forces’ prison system, while the Assad regime and its allies are likely to continue to fail to suppress Islamist organizations and ISIS activity in their territories, a “potential conflagration” that would allow ISIS to extend its control over territory again in eastern Syria and use this space “to replant its insurgency in Iraq,” warning that Baghdad is unlikely to be able to fully contain the repercussions of any ISIS return in Syria.[/size]
[size=45]The report concluded that “these are worrying signs for the future” and that “separating the two demobilized (Syrian and Iraqi), as the Iraqi government has attempted to do, is a recipe for history to repeat itself as ISIS in Syria regains strength and pours resources back into its operations in Iraq.”[/size]
[size=45]“With Russia still alongside US forces in Syria and Russia’s relationship with Iran (and Iran’s proxies in Iraq who want to keep pressure on any regional US military presence) growing stronger, will Iraq ask Russia to take on the role of the main sponsor of the fight against terrorism after the US withdrawal?” he continued.[/size]
[size=45]The report found that under such a scenario, the United States and its partners would be excluded from the three main hotspots in the world where jihadist activity is most intense, namely Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan and the African Sahel region.[/size]
[size=45]“The stakes are very, very high,” the report concluded, explaining that if the United States repeats the mistake it made in 2010 when it withdrew most of its forces from Iraq, there could be a renewed ISIS threat inside Syria and Iraq with global repercussions. The report explained that unlike in 2014, the United States may not be able to mitigate this problem militarily, and instead will be influenced by the whims of competing actors, leaving Washington with far fewer options for dealing with the problem.[/size]
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