Syrian Crisis: Iraq’s “Cautious” Position and Participation Dependent on Developments

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[size=52]Syrian Crisis: Iraq’s “Cautious” Position and Participation Dependent on Developments[/size]

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2024-12-07
Baghdad
Despite Baghdad’s announcement of support for the Syrian regime, and the organization of a tripartite meeting with the foreign ministers of Tehran and Damascus, the Iraqi position is still shrouded in caution regarding the Syrian crisis. According to observers, Baghdad is trying not to be dragged into military participation in a “confused” Syrian situation that could threaten internal security. While they have linked participation to “developments,” Ankara is awaiting Iraqi mediation that could lead to a resolution of the crisis.[/size]
[size=45]Yesterday, Friday, the capital Baghdad hosted a tripartite meeting “Iraqi-Syrian-Iranian” to discuss the repercussions of the accelerating security events in Syria and their effects on the region, in the presence of Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, Syrian Foreign Minister Bassam al-Sabbagh, in addition to their Iraqi counterpart Fuad Hussein.[/size]
[size=45]“The goals of the tripartite meeting between Iraq, Syria and Iran are related to strengthening security and economic cooperation, especially in light of the current situation in the Middle East,” said political analyst Aid al-Hilali, who is close to the prime minister, in an interview with Al-Alam al-Jadeed. “For its part, Iran seeks to strengthen its presence and influence in the region, while Iraq seeks to protect its national interests in the face of security and economic challenges. As for Syria, it is looking for regional support in the face of Western pressure and sanctions imposed on it.”[/size]
[size=45]Regarding the secret outcomes of the meeting, Al-Hilali points out that “the relationship between Iraq, Iran and Syria is extremely sensitive in light of the tense regional situation, and there are talks that have emerged about understandings to enhance security coordination between these countries in confronting armed groups that threaten stability in the region. It is likely that these secret outcomes will include enhancing military and intelligence cooperation, in addition to an understanding to support political movements loyal to them in the region.”[/size]
[size=45]Regarding the possibility of Iraq becoming militarily involved in the war, he stressed that “regional tensions, especially with regard to the Iranian presence in Iraq and the conflict in Syria, may drag Iraq into military involvement indirectly, but at the same time, the Iraqi government’s position in this regard remains cautious, as it is keen to maintain its independent policy and avoid being drawn into any conflict that may endanger the country’s stability,” noting that “the Baghdad government has repeatedly announced its desire to preserve its sovereignty and not to become involved in any regional war unless it is within the framework of defending national security.”[/size]
[size=45]Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein confirmed after the meeting yesterday that Baghdad will take the initiative to try to “hold a meeting of a number of countries to discuss the Syrian issue,” stressing that “some of the countries” that may participate in the Baghdad meeting “are member states of the Astana meeting,” while he indicated that Baghdad has communicated “with many colleagues and foreign ministers of Turkey, the Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan and European countries, and we will continue these contacts,” stressing the need to protect Iraqi territory and keep it “away from any terrorist attacks.”[/size]
[size=45]On the other hand, Abu Muhammad al-Julani, the leader of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (formerly Jabhat al-Nusra), sparked a wave of controversy after publishing a threatening message in his speeches to regional governments, including the Iraqi government. Al-Hilali says that “the Iraqi response was clear in rejecting any foreign interference in the country’s internal affairs, stressing the importance of national unity and rejecting terrorism in all its forms. The Iraqi government confirmed in its response that any threats will not affect its national policy, and that Iraq will not allow any party to interfere in its internal affairs.”[/size]
[size=45]The leader of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham organization, Abu Muhammad al-Julani, announced the day before yesterday, Thursday, that armed organizations had entered the Syrian city of Hama, while he urged, in a video clip, Prime Minister Muhammad Shia al-Sudani not to allow the Popular Mobilization Forces loyal to Iran to intervene in Syria.[/size]
[size=45]Al-Jolani said, “Just as Iraq and Mr. Muhammad Shia al-Sudani succeeded in distancing themselves from the war between Iran and the region recently... we also urge him to distance Iraq from entering the furnace of a new war with what is happening in Syria.”[/size]
[size=45]He added, "We hope and hope that Iraqi politicians, headed by Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, will keep Iraq away from engaging in such quarrels, and that they will do their duty by preventing the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces from interfering in what is happening in Syria by standing with this vanishing regime."[/size]
[size=45]For his part, political analyst Falah Al-Mashaal, during an interview with “Al-Alam Al-Jadeed,” described Al-Julani’s message as “the latter expressed new content in the speech, as if it were a political shift in Hay’at Tahrir Al-Sham. On the other hand, nothing official was issued by the Iraqi government except for some tweets by one of the Prime Minister’s advisors who denounced the response and confirmed that there would be no response to those involved in terrorism.”[/size]
[size=45]Regarding the tripartite meeting yesterday, Al-Mashaal said that it was “closer to the protocol between the three countries to coordinate positions between these countries and call for a meeting of the Arab League and find a unified Arab position regarding the Syrian crisis. It was confirmed that Iraq supports Syria, but on the security side, Iraq cannot enter and wage war because this is interference in an internal affair and Iraq is committed to this constitutional clause.”[/size]
[size=45]Al-Mashaal added, “On the media level, Iraq’s voice is very loud in support of Syria, but in practice, the facts impose other results, especially after the developments that occurred yesterday, after there were Iraqi factions in Albu Kamal and Deir Ezzor that withdrew to the Iraqi interior and the protection points and controls there were handed over to the SDF group, and as a result, the road that passed from Baghdad to Syria and Lebanon was cut off.”[/size]
[size=45]He added, "Al-Sudani's speech was clear and established matters precisely. It is not possible to lead 45 million Iraqis and throw them into the Syrian quagmire. It is an intertwined quagmire with the influence of many countries and strange participation. Even the societal makeup in Syria is different from that in Iraq. Therefore, Iraq cannot interfere."[/size]
[size=45]He concludes that “the Syrian situation is a moving situation from one hour to the next, and I believe that the Syrian regime is very close to the end.” Regarding the future of Iraqi relations with the alternative to the ruling regime if it reaches the end, he points out that “facts impose themselves on the nature of political relations. If this regime falls, there will be a political regime and Iraq will be forced to deal with it.”[/size]
[size=45]Al-Sudani stressed yesterday, Friday, the importance of coordination with sister Arab countries, to come up with a unified position towards the challenges of the region, foremost among which are the developments in Syria. He confirmed to the Syrian Foreign Minister, Bassam Al-Sabbagh, that Iraq's position is to stand by Syria and its people, stressing the importance of preserving Syria's sovereignty and territorial integrity.[/size]
[size=45]During his meeting with the Iranian Foreign Minister, Al-Sudani stressed that Iraq will continue to make intensive diplomatic efforts to contain the crisis in Syria, due to its “clear impact on Iraqi security,” noting that “what is happening in Syria is not separate from the events witnessed in Gaza and Lebanon that have threatened the security of the region and destabilized it.”[/size]
[size=45]In addition, Turkish political analyst Jawad Gok, during an interview with “Al-Alam Al-Jadeed”, finds that “it is positive to hold an Iraqi-Syrian-Iranian conference to convince the Syrian side to open up, as the Turkish government does not find hope in Bashar al-Assad, because he has not moved politically towards the Syrian opposition, so it declares that it is not interfering in the recent military operation.”[/size]
[size=45]“The Turkish government sees the Iraqi position as very positive and neutral, and preserving the Iraqi-Syrian border is important for Iraqi national security,” Gok added, noting that “the statements of Iraqi politicians not to interfere in Syria find great support in Turkey, and as for some of the Iraqi armed factions that participated alongside the Syrian regime, they do not represent the opinion of the Iraqi government, which always declares that it has no connection to these factions.”[/size]
[size=45]The Turkish political analyst believes that “Iraq will play the role of a central mediator regarding what is happening in Syria, and it is also possible that it will be a mediator between Türkiye and Syria.”[/size]
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