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Established in 2006 as a Community of Reality

Welcome to the Neno's Place!

Neno's Place Established in 2006 as a Community of Reality


Neno

I can be reached by phone or text 8am-7pm cst 972-768-9772 or, once joining the board I can be reached by a (PM) Private Message.

Established in 2006 as a Community of Reality

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Established in 2006 as a Community of Reality

Many Topics Including The Oldest Dinar Community. Copyright © 2006-2020


    The Fudge Factor – Close vs. Intraday

    Lobo
    Lobo
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    Posts : 28411
    Join date : 2013-01-12

    The Fudge Factor – Close vs. Intraday Empty The Fudge Factor – Close vs. Intraday

    Post by Lobo Wed 26 Aug 2015, 5:47 pm

    The Fudge Factor – Close vs. Intraday
    Posted on August 26, 2015 by Martin Armstrong

    The Fudge Factor – Close vs. Intraday Cover-TechAnalysis
    QUESTION: 
    My question  below  is  for  Mr.  Armstrong.

    Hi Mr.  Armstrong,
    Thank you in behalf of  all of the investors/ traders who  are  awaiting to join Socrates soon .  my question is  you said in  recent  blog today  ”  If we break and close August at least BELOW 15961, then this will open the door to a 5 month correction into October with a maximum decline of about 5000 points,” also  said
    ” you can make a new low in September, not so steep, and rush back to close higher for month-end. This would become possible perhaps with at least a monthly closing below 15961. But a August closing BELOW 15550 would point to a correction into October. “
    My understanding  is  that  Aug. 31  closing  below 15961  might NOT result in a steep decline into  Oct.  ,  only  closing  below 15500 WILL produce this result .
    Am I correct ?    Is this the  ” fudging ”  you mention in the  blog ?

    Thank you.
    R.U.

     The Fudge Factor – Close vs. Intraday Split-Event
    ANSWER: Yes. This is caused by the fact that a cycle can take place on two levels — intraday and closing. For example, gold peaked intraday in 2011, but the highest closing was actually 2012. The two events can be split. This means that a monthly closing below 15550 would tend to warn of a more pronounced decline being prolonged into October. A simple month-end close for August BELOW even 16688 will warn that we could still penetrate the August low, but not necessarily closing lower in September.
    This is the questionable “fudge factor” we must take into consideration. But a new low in September and a lower close would point to new lows into October. With this degree of Directional Changes in a row, something extraordinary in itself, this tends to imply a choppy trend that will reduce confidence, but there need not be a collapse. The lack of a bounce could build the bearishness.
    So these are the potential patterns. We must allow the market to tell us what it is going to do, as the key is reading the market. Part of that is the quantitative movement relative to key points on our model. This is what makes the 15550 important. Moving below that and we have exceeded the point of support going beyond what existed in 1987 relative to our model.

    This entry was posted in Future Forecasts, Q&A and tagged Directional Changes, Fudge Factory, Gold Reversal by Martin Armstrong. Bookmark the permalink.
    http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/36562

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