
A service at St. Isaac's Cathedral in St. Petersburg on Sunday honoring the victims of a Russian flight that crashed in Egypt on Oct. 31, killing all 224 aboard. Islamic State claimed it bombed the jet.Credit Peter Kovalev/Reuters
Confirmation of Attack on Russian Jet May Strengthen Putin’s Resolve in Syria
By NEIL MacFARQUHARNOV. 8, 2015
nytimes.com | Nov. 8, 2015
MOSCOW — The main bell in St. Isaac’s Cathedral in St. Petersburg tolled 224 times on Sunday, once for each victim of the destruction of a Russian charter flight in Egypt a week ago.
Although President Vladimir V. Putin and his aides at first indignantly dismissed suspicions of a terrorist act, the Kremlin has since then clearly come to grips with the idea that a bomb was probably involved in the crash: Late Friday it suspended all travel by Russians to Egypt, and initiated an emergency airlift that by Sunday had repatriated 11,000 Russians, by government count.
Should an attack be confirmed — and particularly if the Islamic State’s claim that it bombed the plane in revenge for Russia’s intervention in Syria turns out to be true — analysts and other experts expect that it will only strengthen Mr. Putin’s resolve to become more deeply involved in the Middle East.
First, Mr. Putin said the Russian Air Force’s bombing campaign in Syria was partly intended to help dismantle the Islamic State, also known as ISIS or ISIL, which includes up to 7,000 fighters from Russia and the former Soviet Union. One worry is that they might return to wage a terrorist war in Russia. An attack against a civilian airliner would confirm that Russian interests were already being threatened — and might cause Russia to begin targeting the Islamic State more aggressively.

Mourners at the service. Since the attack, the Kremlin has suspended all travel by Russians to Egypt and repatriated 11,000.Credit Elena Ignatyeva/Associated Press
Second, Mr. Putin’s Syrian intervention has been taken as an attempt to show that Russia is again become a global power capable of tackling the world’s most intractable problems. Reversing course after the first setback, however violent, would undercut that image.
Third, the Russian leader has painted the West, and the United States in particular, as quick to abandon its Arab allies since the dawn of the Arab Spring in 2011 and its chaotic aftermath. Syria, now beleaguered, has been Russia’s only Arab ally for decades, but Mr. Putin has also been courting President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi of Egypt. A terrorist attack by enemies of the Egyptian government will most likely strengthen, not diminish, that effort.
Ever since the Russian Air Force began bombing targets in Syria at the end of September, Mr. Putin has repeated the theme that it is better to attack terrorists on their home territory. His response in the face of any terrorist attack will probably be to double down, analysts said. But he is still likely to avoid committing ground forces, which polls show remains highly unpopular among Russians.
“If it was a terrorist act, that pushes the stakes higher and makes this Syria operation more costly,” said Vladimir Frolov, a political analyst. “It also proves the point that terrorists have to be destroyed before they come to our own land.” -[wasn't this the Bush doctrine?]
The problem, he said, is that “Russia’s current strategy cannot defeat the Islamic State.”
Russia deployed more than 50 combat aircraft in Syria, along with some 4,000 troops. About half of them were already there as advisers and technicians, while most of the rest are ground forces needed to protect the pilots and various bases.
The strategy as laid out by Mr. Putin was that the Russian Air Force would bolster the weakened military forces under President Bashar al-Assad, allowing them to strengthen their hold on Syria and then to take on the Islamic State strongholds in western Syria, using Syrian and allied ground forces.
Alexei Makarkin, an analyst at the Center for Political Technologies, saw two main options for Russia. One, he said, was that “Russia can intensify the Syria operation, send more troops and volunteers to support Assad.” That move, he said, would probably worsen already strained ties with the West.
In the second option, “Fighting the Islamic State will become a priority rather than supporting Assad,” he said. “In this situation, Russia will pressure Assad to move toward a transitional government.” Those efforts had already started but not gotten very far before the attack.
In the few instances that Mr. Putin has spoken out about the crash, it was mostly to offer his condolences. Soon, though, he will need to explain the catastrophe at home — especially given the Kremlin’s initial insistence on dismissing the idea that the plane’s downing could be linked to Syria.
Stanislav Belkovsky, a political analyst and frequent Kremlin critic, argued that Mr. Putin intervened in Syria to fulfill his own international political ambitions and so would avoid anything suggesting that ordinary Russians might pay a price for his gamble.
“They do not want to link the plane crash with Syria, because then the question is, ‘Why did we go into fight in Syria at all? Does it correspond to Russia’s basic national interests?’ ” Mr. Belkovsky said on Dozhd television, a tiny independent media outlet.
Last week somebody floated two plain wooden coffins in a canal in St. Petersburg — home to most of the victims — one spray-painted with the question “For what?” in red, and the other with “For whom?”
Some analysts thought that the Kremlin was most likely struggling with an explanation.
“The Kremlin will have to reverse cause and effect here so that its strategy is not seen as leading to civilian deaths,” said Maxim Trudolyubov, an editor at large for the newspaper Vedomosti.
Still, the Kremlin has one important factor in its favor as it seeks to shape public opinion: a deepening belief in the Russian public, stoked by Mr. Putin’s propaganda machine, that Western governments are conspiring against the country’s interests.
Indeed, the idea that the West created the Islamic State in the first place is taken as a given here. And it took little time for allies of the Kremlin to frame the plane’s downing as yet another example of Western malfeasance.
One official almost immediately seized on the early British suspension of flights to Sharm el Sheikh, from which the downed plane took off, calling it a form of psychological warfare on Russia.
“There is a geopolitical pressure against Russia’s actions in Syria,” Konstantin Kosachev, the head of the Foreign Relations Committee in the Federation Council, Russia’s upper house, was quoted as saying by the RIA Novosti news agency.
He added: “It might sound blasphemous, but there are plenty of those who, without any grounds, would like to deliberately blame this catastrophe on the reaction of the jihadists to Russia’s actions.”
Sputnik News, an arm of the Russian government efforts to spread its point of view globally, published a column suggesting that British intelligence might have blown up the plane.
“It is not hard to imagine that both would like to see Russian President Vladimir Putin incurring a political backlash from his nation over what is Russia’s worst-ever air crash,” said the commentary. “Was it really terrorists, or was it British MI-6 agents palming the deed off as terrorists?”
Suspicions that the West is withholding information, voiced by the Russian Foreign Ministry, reflect the distrust between the two sides. The United States raised similar suspicions after the Boston Marathon bombers turned out to be two brothers with roots in the Russian Caucasus.
Other analysts said that the slow Kremlin reaction compared with other governments’ responses reflected both Mr. Putin’s own caution and the desire not to harm Egypt: Russians make up about a third of the nine million tourists who visit the country annually. Almost 80,000 still need to be flown home, government officials said.
Egypt used to be the Soviet Union’s most important ally in the region, until President Anwar Sadat expelled all its military advisers in 1972. Mr. Putin has been trying to rebuild that relationship.
Not only does it counter American influence, but it is important for domestic reasons for Russia to have a strong Sunni Muslim ally at a time when it is allied with two Shiite Muslim governments, Iran and Syria, in a fight against Sunni jihadists. The estimated 20 million Muslims in Russia are overwhelmingly Sunni.
“It is important for Russia to be seen in the Middle East to be in close touch with the biggest Arab country,” said Dimitri Trenin of the Carnegie Moscow Center. “It feels uncomfortable with this alliance with Shiite power.”
Still, many expect a forceful response in Syria if the airplane downing is traced back to the Islamic State.
“
A terrorist attack against Russian citizens means a declaration of war against all Russians,” wrote Tatiana Stanovaya, an analyst, on Slon.ru, a current events website. “The Syria campaign will thus become not a matter of Putin’s ambitions, but of national revenge.”
© 2015 The New York Times Company
read:http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/09/world/europe/confirmation-of-attack-on-russian-jet-may-strengthen-putins-resolve-in-syria.html?ref=world&_r=0
» Militia Man & Crew Fitch Affirms Iraq at 'B-'; Outlook Stable
» utube 12/09/23 Iraqi Dinar:Exciting News Iraqi Dinar RV Of IQD Done Desperately Today Good News C
» utube 12/08/23 Militia Man & Crew Iraq Dinar International - Gateway - Local Currency - Sustainab
» Regional mediation between Baghdad and Erbil to resolve the “financial crisis”
» Al-Sudani directs that officers and members of the holding units be referred for investigation and t
» More than a billion dollars in sales from the Iraqi Central Bank within a week
» Adviser to the Prime Minister: Initiating procedures for establishing the Carbon Economic Company
» Romanowski comments on "the positions of the main Iraqi forces" following the bombing of the America
» Between production and export.. How much does Iraq lose as a result of its voluntary reduction in oi
» Iraq rejects attempts to target "fossil fuels" at the climate conference
» Al-Halbousi directs to hold a meeting for his supporters in Jordan
» Parliamentary efforts to increase the salaries of members of the Popular Mobilization Forces
» Anbar tribes warn of an American plan to disrupt the security situation ahead of the local elections
» Parliamentary Defense reveals the most important contents of the report on the American aggression a
» Deputy: Residential investment complexes will not solve the crisis due to their high prices
» A parliamentarian reveals “secret meetings” regarding choosing Al-Halbousi’s replacement and sets a
» Iraq is ranked 81st in the world in terms of per capita carbon emissions
» Local administration: The investigation committee is investigating the reason for the high casualty
» A reading of the regulatory procedures for Iraq’s foreign trade
» Iraq's oil exports to America decreased last week
» A center indicating that the Iraqi citizen is exposed to “major depletion” due to the dollar and gas
» Foreign Minister: Iraq is a safe environment for investment and open to Spanish companies
» Prime Minister: We have more work to do to recover our people’s money and pursue the corrupt
» Integrity: Iraq has taken serious steps in the field of combating corruption
» “We reserve the decisive response.” Washington informs Sudanese of its decision regarding the attack
» Judge Zidane: Confronting drugs requires a comprehensive national strategy
» “International mediation” between Baghdad and Erbil... a meeting of ambassadors to resolve the “fina
» Exporting Iraqi products to Kuwait
» In continuation of supporting the category of returnees... the Ministry of Immigration distributes (
» The Iraqi Stock Exchange index rose by 7.1% last November
» A scandal that shakes Iraq...the loss of 35 trillion dinars in print
» The Prime Minister's advisor points out the economic strengths of the partnership between Iraq and S
» Pentagon: Hezbollah and Harakat al-Nujaba are behind the attacks against our forces
» Iran is pressing to activate the Iraq-Syria transit line
» Al-Abadi on the bombing of the American embassy: Security and stability are not a commodity in the m
» The coordination framework declares its support for the government’s measures and its keenness to pr
» US Secretary of Defense to Sudanese: We reserve the right to respond
» Sudanese Advisor: The government is determined to take measures to protect the security and interest
» Al-Sudani warns against direct response to targeting the American embassy without government approva
» The Foreign Minister to his Spanish counterpart: Iraq today represents a safe environment for invest
» Head of the Supreme Judicial Council: Combating drugs requires a comprehensive national strategy
» Al-Sudani calls on the Presidency of the Republic to ratify all death sentences for those convicted
» Integrity and the US State Department discuss extending cooperation between the two countries in the
» Iraq plans to invest in the population increase and turn it into effective development engines
» The Sudanese government plans to establish 44 new pharmaceutical factories in Iraq
» Iraq and France are discussing enhancing economic cooperation and developing trade exchange
» Election Commission: Voting time will start from seven in the morning until six in the evening
» Iraq and the United States of America discuss bilateral cooperation relations in the security fields
» Al-Sudani chairs a security meeting to discuss targeting the American embassy
» A list of the exchange rates of the dollar against the Iraqi dinar today.. recorded an increase
» Al-Sudani receives a call from the US Secretary of Defense.. This is what it said
» Al-Sudani calls on the Presidency of the Republic to approve the execution of those convicted of dru
» utube 12/08/23 Iraqi Dinar Today 2023 / Iraqi Dinar News Today / Iraqi Dinar
» The Prime Minister blesses the activation of the partnership between the Iraqi and Saudi private sec
» Planning: 11 axes to invest in the population increase and transform it into effective development e
» Advisor Mazhar Saleh: The economic geography of Iraq and Saudi Arabia constitutes an important found
» Al-Maliki: The best way to remove the corrupt is to go to the election ballots
» Al-Sudani: Parliament members have the final say in choosing the president
» The Kurdistan Region warns of a mass migration of Iraqis to other countries in the future
» "Embassy missiles" fall on the National Security headquarters, and the agency threatens the "bombers
» There are more obstacles than solutions.. The housing sector in Iraq: The need for more than 5 milli
» China reduces entry visa fees for Iraqis wishing to enter its territory (table)
» Al-Abadi on the bombing of the American embassy: Security and stability are not a commodity in the m
» Political conflicts and tension between Al-Halbousi and the governor.. What is happening in Anbar?
» Fatah leader: America created Al-Hawl camp to threaten the security of 7 Arab countries
» The Minister of Immigration instructs to solve the problems of returning families in Diyala
» Why was Iraq's "voluntary" reduction the largest in OPEC+?
» Regional Government: January 10th, official working hours in all Kurdistan districts
» Coinciding with International Anti-Corruption Day...the Ministry of Immigration holds a ceremony in
» The Federal Court rules that the instructions for conducting daily business in the Al-Kadhimi govern
» Head of the Kurdistan Council of Ministers: Our talks with the federal government will continue, and
» Three types of water violations were identified... Water Resources announces the introduction of gro
» Australian readiness to consolidate relations with the Kurdistan Region in the fields of investment
» There are more obstacles than solutions.. The housing sector in Iraq: The need for more than 5 milli
» The US Embassy in Baghdad urges the Iraqi government to protect diplomatic personnel
» Sudanese directs the prosecution of the perpetrators of the attack by launching projectiles towards
» Provincial council candidates are competing for two hundred and seventy-five seats
» With a new decision.. How will Iraq lose 6% of its oil exports?
» Georgetown Center for Studies: The killing of Americans in Iraq and the regional war is “a matter of
» Iraq.. Online food delivery will generate $845 million in 2023
» The US embassy in Baghdad confirms that it was hit by two missiles
» Directives from Sudanese regarding the bombing of the American embassy in Baghdad
» “No vacation until the end of the year.” The Minister of Finance issues a directive to the employees
» utube 12/5/23 Militia Man & Crew Iraq Dinar - Reality - Internationalism - Investors - Revaluatio
» The Ministry of Commerce decides to open sales outlets for those covered by social care in installme
» Minister of Oil: Iraq's decision to reduce OPEC Plus to achieve balance and stability in the markets
» Despite sending money from Baghdad.. Politician: The regional government refuses to release employee
» Baghdad is a cash cow...and the regional government steals the camel with what it carries
» Anbar Environment monitors violations of land conversion in Ramadi
» Federation of Arab Stock Exchanges: The Iraqi Stock Exchange accounted for 61% of November trading
» The Minister of Labor reveals a campaign to grant loans and plans to expand the employment process f
» Southern Gas: The agreement with the French company Total includes 4 main projects
» Sudanese directs to suspend working hours on Sunday
» Revealing the latest developments in choosing the new President of Parliament
» Media and Communications signs a contract with Azerbaijan to protect civil aviation radio navigation
» Al-Party accuses “sectarian” parties of delaying sending the $700 billion to the region
» The Kurdistan Oil Industry Association announces the joining of an American company
» A fine of 3 times the price.. Iraq reveals how to deal with goods that “violate specifications”