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Understanding Energy Models

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Lobo
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Understanding Energy Models

Post by Lobo on Thu 03 Dec 2015, 4:47 pm

Understanding Energy Models

Posted on December 3, 2015 by Martin Armstrong


QUESTION: Your energy model turned negative on the daily level just before the rally in the euro. That meant the market was then oversold if I understood your explanations.
Thanks for a great conference
PK
ANSWER: Yes, the fact that we came down to a cluster of reversals not to mention the year pivot at 10530 and the energy model turned negative December 1st confirmed that the market was oversold. The Energy Model reflects the amount of excess energy within a market. Showing it turned negative confirmed it was becoming oversold. Then you were against a group of reversals closely separated. Hence, the carry trade was very heavy.
 
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