Do We NEED Computers to See Beyond Our Own Hardwiring?
Posted on December 11, 2015 by Martin Armstrong
Video Player
One of the battles in trying to produce real analysis is our hardwiring. We naturally have an attraction toward repeating sequential and palindromic numbers or events that extend beyond what we consciously realize. This is our inherent hardwiring that comes down to our basic species survival instinct. Animals hear just a sound and scurry. They did not actually see a threat; they simply assume everything is a threat. Even an animal will connect a pattern and realize that humans are not a threat when offering food. This squirrel has learned to hang out in a theme park where he can trust humans.
Our instincts come from our survival instincts as well. Our brains are constantly working to make sense of the information we do not even realize is taking place. Recognizing patterns is critical to our ability to learn from past experiences and anticipate challenges as well as threats. We learn in this manner just as the squirrel learns through repetition to trust humans offering food in a theme park.
Essentially, our brain is wired to form associations and then complete the pattern. We are pattern recognition machines. Some people keep forecasting a crash because that is what they have experienced like the squirrel. Others predict that whatever trend is in motion will continue for they cannot comprehend how things change rapidly.
Apophenia is the human tendency to perceive meaningful patterns within random data. Scientists define this as “unmotivated seeing of connections” accompanied by a “specific experience of an abnormal meaningfulness.” The first use of the term is attributed to Klaus Conrad. Pareidolia is a visual form of apophenia, such as when people believe they see Jesus’ face in a piece of burnt toast (don’t worry, scientists say it’s perfectly normal).
One of the most well-known examples of apophenia is the gambler’s fallacy as the call it: wrongly believing that after tossing heads 10 times in a row, the probability of tossing heads again is no longer 50 percent. Of course, the odds for each flip of the coin is always the same. Yet, we comprehend that there is some higher overriding pattern. Then in 2008, Michael Shermer coined the word “patternicity”, defining it as “the tendency to find meaningful patterns in meaningless noise.” But is this really true? Perhaps we assume there is noise so we are incapable to observing complex patterns that make the flipping of the coin subject to two worlds of patterns.
Strangely enough, those in the field of studying the mind may be wrong and it appears are falling into the trap that they may be the victims of our own observations. By trying to be too detached, they prevent themselves from seeing the patterns within what they ASSUME is random noise. They are wrong because there is a higher order that they do not understand.
The father of chaos theory is Edward Lorenz. (1917–2008) who was an American mathematician and meteorologist. Lorenz was certainly THE pioneer in chaos theory. A professor at MIT, Lorenz was the first to recognize what is now called chaotic behavior in the mathematical modeling of weather systems.
During the 1950s, Lorenz observed that there was a cyclical non-linear nature to weather; yet, the field relied upon linear statistical models in meteorology to do weather forecasting. It was like trying to measure the circumference of a circle with a straight edge ruler. His work on the topic culminated in the publication of his 1963 paper “Deterministic Non-periodic Flow” in the Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, and with it, the foundation of chaos theory. During the early 1960s, Lorenz had access to early computers. He was running what he thought would be random numbers and began to observe that there was a duality of a hidden repetitive nature. He graphed the numbers that were derived from his study of convection rolls in the atmosphere. What emerged has been perhaps one of the most important discoveries in modern time.
This illustration of the Lorenz Strange Attractor is incredibly important and was first reported in 1963. Lorenz’s discovery of a strange attractor was made during an attempt to create a model of weather patterns. The actual experiment was an attempt to model atmospheric dynamics of the planet. It involved a truncated model of the Navier-Stokes equations. It is a visual example of a non-linear dynamic system corresponding to the long-term behavior in a cyclical manner that reveals a hidden order we cannot otherwise observe.
The Lorenz Strange Attractor is a three-dimensional dynamical system that exhibits chaotic flow. Noted for its interesting shape revolving around two invisible strange points in space-time, we call them strange attractors. The map shows how the state of a dynamical system with three variables of a three-dimensional system evolves over the fourth dimension (time) in a complex, yet non-repeating pattern. In other words, here is a visualization of duality – what appears to be randomness (chaos) simultaneously has a broader clear pattern of order. The same identical structure appears in light where it is both a waveform and particle, as we see in the economy where we retain our individuality, yet at the same time, we are part of a broader collective pattern. This is the very essence of the invisible hand – or in Lorenz terms, a strange attractor.
Lorenz also discovered in 1969 that very minor differences in a dynamic nonlinear system, which would include the economy, could trigger vast and often unsuspected drastic results. These observations ultimately led him to formulate what became known as the term butterfly effect in 1969. Very tiny changes in what appeared to be minor data at the outset had a ripple effect throughout the entire system and created substantially different outcomes. This term grew out of an academic paper he presented in 1972 entitled: “Predictability: Does the Flap of a Butterfly’s Wings in Brazil Set Off a Tornado in Texas?”
What Lorenz established is that complexity may produce the appearance of chaos, yet there is a higher order most cannot see. Computers are free from bias, and as such, they are producing a revelation that there are indeed patterns within the noise.
So, when we look at economic forecasting you will notice that the typical analysis projects the same trend which is in motion will stay in motion. They cannot see the big event which appears like a rogue wave out of what seems to be a normal sea.
Then there are those who keep seeing a crash simply because a market remains high, as in the Dow, or that the dollar must crash because the U.S. has an $18 trillion debt. They fear the rogue wave, yet are clueless how to forecast when they arrive.
There is something much deeper than these superficial observations. Unfortunately, it may require a computer to help us see beyond our own hardwiring and prejudices. We cannot see what we do not understand.
This entry was posted in Understanding Cycles and tagged apophenia, Butterfly Effect, Edward Lorenz, Klaus Conrad, Lorenz Strange Attractor, Pareidolia, patternicity by Martin Armstrong. Bookmark the permalink.
Posted on December 11, 2015 by Martin Armstrong
Video Player
One of the battles in trying to produce real analysis is our hardwiring. We naturally have an attraction toward repeating sequential and palindromic numbers or events that extend beyond what we consciously realize. This is our inherent hardwiring that comes down to our basic species survival instinct. Animals hear just a sound and scurry. They did not actually see a threat; they simply assume everything is a threat. Even an animal will connect a pattern and realize that humans are not a threat when offering food. This squirrel has learned to hang out in a theme park where he can trust humans.
Our instincts come from our survival instincts as well. Our brains are constantly working to make sense of the information we do not even realize is taking place. Recognizing patterns is critical to our ability to learn from past experiences and anticipate challenges as well as threats. We learn in this manner just as the squirrel learns through repetition to trust humans offering food in a theme park.
Essentially, our brain is wired to form associations and then complete the pattern. We are pattern recognition machines. Some people keep forecasting a crash because that is what they have experienced like the squirrel. Others predict that whatever trend is in motion will continue for they cannot comprehend how things change rapidly.
Apophenia is the human tendency to perceive meaningful patterns within random data. Scientists define this as “unmotivated seeing of connections” accompanied by a “specific experience of an abnormal meaningfulness.” The first use of the term is attributed to Klaus Conrad. Pareidolia is a visual form of apophenia, such as when people believe they see Jesus’ face in a piece of burnt toast (don’t worry, scientists say it’s perfectly normal).
One of the most well-known examples of apophenia is the gambler’s fallacy as the call it: wrongly believing that after tossing heads 10 times in a row, the probability of tossing heads again is no longer 50 percent. Of course, the odds for each flip of the coin is always the same. Yet, we comprehend that there is some higher overriding pattern. Then in 2008, Michael Shermer coined the word “patternicity”, defining it as “the tendency to find meaningful patterns in meaningless noise.” But is this really true? Perhaps we assume there is noise so we are incapable to observing complex patterns that make the flipping of the coin subject to two worlds of patterns.
Strangely enough, those in the field of studying the mind may be wrong and it appears are falling into the trap that they may be the victims of our own observations. By trying to be too detached, they prevent themselves from seeing the patterns within what they ASSUME is random noise. They are wrong because there is a higher order that they do not understand.
The father of chaos theory is Edward Lorenz. (1917–2008) who was an American mathematician and meteorologist. Lorenz was certainly THE pioneer in chaos theory. A professor at MIT, Lorenz was the first to recognize what is now called chaotic behavior in the mathematical modeling of weather systems.
During the 1950s, Lorenz observed that there was a cyclical non-linear nature to weather; yet, the field relied upon linear statistical models in meteorology to do weather forecasting. It was like trying to measure the circumference of a circle with a straight edge ruler. His work on the topic culminated in the publication of his 1963 paper “Deterministic Non-periodic Flow” in the Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, and with it, the foundation of chaos theory. During the early 1960s, Lorenz had access to early computers. He was running what he thought would be random numbers and began to observe that there was a duality of a hidden repetitive nature. He graphed the numbers that were derived from his study of convection rolls in the atmosphere. What emerged has been perhaps one of the most important discoveries in modern time.
This illustration of the Lorenz Strange Attractor is incredibly important and was first reported in 1963. Lorenz’s discovery of a strange attractor was made during an attempt to create a model of weather patterns. The actual experiment was an attempt to model atmospheric dynamics of the planet. It involved a truncated model of the Navier-Stokes equations. It is a visual example of a non-linear dynamic system corresponding to the long-term behavior in a cyclical manner that reveals a hidden order we cannot otherwise observe.
The Lorenz Strange Attractor is a three-dimensional dynamical system that exhibits chaotic flow. Noted for its interesting shape revolving around two invisible strange points in space-time, we call them strange attractors. The map shows how the state of a dynamical system with three variables of a three-dimensional system evolves over the fourth dimension (time) in a complex, yet non-repeating pattern. In other words, here is a visualization of duality – what appears to be randomness (chaos) simultaneously has a broader clear pattern of order. The same identical structure appears in light where it is both a waveform and particle, as we see in the economy where we retain our individuality, yet at the same time, we are part of a broader collective pattern. This is the very essence of the invisible hand – or in Lorenz terms, a strange attractor.
Lorenz also discovered in 1969 that very minor differences in a dynamic nonlinear system, which would include the economy, could trigger vast and often unsuspected drastic results. These observations ultimately led him to formulate what became known as the term butterfly effect in 1969. Very tiny changes in what appeared to be minor data at the outset had a ripple effect throughout the entire system and created substantially different outcomes. This term grew out of an academic paper he presented in 1972 entitled: “Predictability: Does the Flap of a Butterfly’s Wings in Brazil Set Off a Tornado in Texas?”
What Lorenz established is that complexity may produce the appearance of chaos, yet there is a higher order most cannot see. Computers are free from bias, and as such, they are producing a revelation that there are indeed patterns within the noise.
So, when we look at economic forecasting you will notice that the typical analysis projects the same trend which is in motion will stay in motion. They cannot see the big event which appears like a rogue wave out of what seems to be a normal sea.
Then there are those who keep seeing a crash simply because a market remains high, as in the Dow, or that the dollar must crash because the U.S. has an $18 trillion debt. They fear the rogue wave, yet are clueless how to forecast when they arrive.
There is something much deeper than these superficial observations. Unfortunately, it may require a computer to help us see beyond our own hardwiring and prejudices. We cannot see what we do not understand.
This entry was posted in Understanding Cycles and tagged apophenia, Butterfly Effect, Edward Lorenz, Klaus Conrad, Lorenz Strange Attractor, Pareidolia, patternicity by Martin Armstrong. Bookmark the permalink.
Today at 7:52 am by Rocky
» utube 3/28/24 MM&C Iraqi Dinar - IQD Update - SWIFT - Purchasing Power - Urban Renaissance - Releas
Today at 7:51 am by Rocky
» Al-Mandalawi: Iraq is witnessing competition between major companies...and the House of Representati
Today at 7:49 am by Rocky
» The President of the Republic stresses the importance of the role of programmers in developing the w
Today at 7:46 am by Rocky
» The Minister of Industry and Minerals follows up on the technical and production performance of the
Today at 7:45 am by Rocky
» The Minister of Finance is following up on the field the progress of the newly implemented ASYCUDA s
Today at 7:44 am by Rocky
» Statistics: There are more than 15 million bank accounts in Iraq
Today at 7:42 am by Rocky
» Representative: One paragraph hinders the passage of a general amnesty within the House of Represent
Today at 7:37 am by Rocky
» Parliamentary Finance: “The draft federal budget law will be devoid of new job grades.”
Today at 7:36 am by Rocky
» Parliamentary action to resolve the fate of “food security contracts” in 15 governorates
Today at 7:35 am by Rocky
» 300 factories turned into "iron scrap" in Diyala
Today at 7:34 am by Rocky
» A deputy expects the dollar exchange rate to reach 140 Iraqi dinars
Today at 7:32 am by Rocky
» Al-Yasiri: The American administration is working hard to destroy the Iraqi economy
Today at 7:31 am by Rocky
» Infographic: The highest annual salaries of leaders of Arab countries
Today at 7:30 am by Rocky
» Communications announces that the electronic signature project has reached advanced stages
Today at 7:29 am by Rocky
» Parliamentary Integrity presents a file related to Kuwaiti violations of Iraqi oil
Today at 7:27 am by Rocky
» Parliamentary move to include amendments to Parliament’s internal regulations on the agenda (documen
Today at 7:25 am by Rocky
» The Iraqi President urges the Minister of Finance to expedite the payment of salaries to the Kurdist
Today at 7:23 am by Rocky
» Central Bank of Iraq sales exceeded $251 million at today’s auction
Today at 7:21 am by Rocky
» The Foreign Minister questions the "Iraqi resistance" attacks against Israel: the other side did not
Today at 7:20 am by Rocky
» The Minister of Labor announces progress in the electronic payment system
Today at 7:17 am by Rocky
» Interior Ministry: For the first time, we controlled the smuggling of petroleum derivatives by 98 pe
Today at 7:16 am by Rocky
» International companies offer offers to invest in the Dhi Qar marshes.. What distinguishes them?
Today at 7:15 am by Rocky
» “Tough” comments on interest rates raise the dollar globally
Today at 7:14 am by Rocky
» Iraq is the fifth largest oil supplier to South Korea in a month
Today at 7:12 am by Rocky
» Recovering more than 100 billion as a result of more than 200,000 employees on social welfare
Today at 7:11 am by Rocky
» The Sudanese consultant announces the completion of Baghdad Metro track designs
Today at 7:08 am by Rocky
» Al-Sudani stresses ending the problem of triple-shift schools
Today at 7:07 am by Rocky
» Iraq begins building two new tankers to transport petroleum products
Today at 7:06 am by Rocky
» Forming a council for “competition and preventing monopoly”
Today at 7:04 am by Rocky
» Features of an Iraqi-Turkish agreement regarding the status of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party
Today at 7:02 am by Rocky
» {Al-Buzrajiya} between the hammer of fraud and the power of the owners
Today at 7:01 am by Rocky
» Ministry of Oil: The gas sector is witnessing great development
Today at 6:59 am by Rocky
» An agreement with Britain in the field of securities
Today at 6:58 am by Rocky
» Discussions between Baghdad and Ankara to open a new port
Today at 6:57 am by Rocky
» Trade: About 11 million citizens updated their new card information
Today at 6:56 am by Rocky
» Electronic payment is sustainable growth
Today at 6:55 am by Rocky
» Experts: Iraq qualifies to be an important tourist country
Today at 6:54 am by Rocky
» Amending the Health Professions Law “robs” scientists of the central appointment 3 years after it wa
Today at 5:20 am by Rocky
» Is the “blessings package” that Erbil paid to the citizens of Kurdistan related to the elections?
Today at 5:19 am by Rocky
» Exceeded 5,000 projects.. Allocating 10 trillion dinars to support governorate reconstruction plans
Today at 5:18 am by Rocky
» “His need no longer exists.” Parliamentary Finance confirms the necessity of returning the retiremen
Today at 5:17 am by Rocky
» To communicate with the bases... 12 directives from Al-Sadr, including blocking numbers for non-gove
Today at 5:15 am by Rocky
» In an interview with "Baghdad Today"... an Iranian researcher reveals the importance of Haniyeh's vi
Today at 5:14 am by Rocky
» After it was 63 trillion in 2023... the 2024 budget deficit will rise to 80 trillion dinars
Today at 5:13 am by Rocky
» Parliament reveals the date of the first evaluation of the governors and determines the party respon
Today at 5:11 am by Rocky
» The President of the Republic informs Al-Araji and Al-Basri: Momentum must be mobilized to eliminate
Today at 5:10 am by Rocky
» Can the Federal Court sue others? A legal clarification of its response mechanism to abuse
Today at 5:09 am by Rocky
» Despite promises to soon stop burning gas.. What is the secret behind Iraq renewing the Iranian gas
Today at 5:07 am by Rocky
» Advisor to Al-Sudani: The dollar is on the way to further decline, and 70% of Iraqi traders have ent
Today at 5:06 am by Rocky
» Iraq exported more than 99 million barrels of oil last February
Today at 5:04 am by Rocky
» Barzani “gives good news” to Kurdistan employees: salaries, land, and loan exemptions
Today at 5:03 am by Rocky
» Alia Nassif: Nour Zuhair returned to the port of Umm Qasr to make deals.. An influential Shiite forc
Today at 5:02 am by Rocky
» The Prime Minister announces the movement of nearly 500 stalled projects
Today at 5:00 am by Rocky
» A government strategy to enhance investments.. Iraq is on the verge of a new era of economic develop
Today at 4:59 am by Rocky
» Ranging between 20% and 50%.. The Kurdistan government decides to reduce service fees, customs dutie
Today at 4:58 am by Rocky
» Al-Sudani: The reform approach in the security services is an integral part of reform in other secto
Today at 4:56 am by Rocky
» Everyone in Iraq wants the Sudanese visit to Washington to be successful, even the factions!
Today at 4:55 am by Rocky
» Sources and experts expect the agenda.. in his bag is the Baghdad dollar and the factions’ truce, bu
Today at 4:54 am by Rocky
» The decision to raise gasoline prices arouses the ire of drivers...a reminder of the large demonstra
Today at 4:53 am by Rocky
» Parliamentary services: 3 important hospitals in Baghdad will enter service at the end of the year
Today at 4:52 am by Rocky
» Iraq signs a contract to supply Iranian gas for a period of five years
Today at 4:50 am by Rocky
» Parliament adds a voting paragraph on amending the Penal Code to its agenda
Today at 4:49 am by Rocky
» His political advisor: We are not afraid of Sudanese entering the elections alone
Today at 4:48 am by Rocky
» Parliamentary services explain the reasons for the rise in real estate prices in Baghdad
Today at 4:46 am by Rocky
» Attia, criticizing the government's decisions: "The citizen's feathers will be ruffled without servi
Today at 4:45 am by Rocky
» Parliamentary Communications: Zain Iraq and Asiacell did not pay their debts
Today at 4:44 am by Rocky
» The Governor of Karbala announces the imminent establishment of the largest industrial city in the c
Today at 4:43 am by Rocky
» A government determination to end the issue of displaced persons in the middle of this year
Today at 4:42 am by Rocky
» Iraq buys gas from Kurdistan to generate electricity
Today at 4:41 am by Rocky
» Parliamentary signatures to include an amendment to the internal regulations to decide the choice of
Today at 4:40 am by Rocky
» In Basra.. a demonstration against foreign workers in Iraqi companies (video)
Today at 4:38 am by Rocky
» Al-Samarrai: Presidency of Parliament is an entitlement to the constituents, and calling it a “frame
Today at 4:36 am by Rocky
» Electronic food supplies in 6 governorates... covering 11 million Iraqis and “writing off” about 700
Today at 4:34 am by Rocky
» Corruption of the Ministry of Transport.. Representatives express their surprise at the minister’s s
Today at 4:32 am by Rocky
» The biggest supporter of the invasion of Iraq.. The death of former US Senator Joe Lieberman
Today at 4:31 am by Rocky
» Iraq is ranked “late.” A list of the most and least safe Arab countries for women
Today at 4:30 am by Rocky
» The Council of Ministers exempts the Gulf Interconnection Authority from guarantee fees: it is a gov
Yesterday at 7:48 am by Rocky
» The Iraqi government raises the size of the 2024 budget, and Parliament is “surprised”
Yesterday at 7:46 am by Rocky
» Popular Movement: We have many economic options away from American hegemony
Yesterday at 7:42 am by Rocky
» The Oil Parliament stresses the need to transfer part of the revenues to the producing governorates
Yesterday at 7:41 am by Rocky
» It will cover 14 regions in eastern Iraq.. A deputy reveals the “border electricity” project
Yesterday at 7:40 am by Rocky
» Experts Warn Mass Migration Threatens US Food Security
Yesterday at 7:37 am by Bama Diva
» Al-Fateh: America occupies Iraq through agreements
Yesterday at 7:37 am by Rocky
» Anger in Iraq over a "sudden decision"... and a reminder of a "general strike" that paralyzed the co
Yesterday at 7:34 am by Rocky
» Parliamentary Committee: Parliament is discussing today a decision that “disturbed” the Iraqis
Yesterday at 7:33 am by Rocky
» Ministry of Electricity: Our production will reach 27 thousand megawatts by May
Yesterday at 7:31 am by Rocky
» Diagnosing the “most important” problems in the oil file between Baghdad and Erbil.. What is the rel
Yesterday at 7:30 am by Rocky
» The Iraqi Fiqh Academy and the Sunni Endowment issue a fatwa to pay Zakat al-Fitr
Yesterday at 7:28 am by Rocky
» The National Bank of Iraq continues its digital transformation by launching its new banking system a
Yesterday at 7:26 am by Rocky
» Parliamentary Investment and the Central Bank are discussing the housing initiative
Yesterday at 7:25 am by Rocky
» The Prime Minister announces the restart of 500 suspended projects
Yesterday at 7:23 am by Rocky
» Al-Barti assesses the region's employees: Your salaries are insured and will be paid after resettlem
Yesterday at 7:21 am by Rocky
» Iraqi-American discussions in anticipation of the Sudanese visit
Yesterday at 7:20 am by Rocky
» Iraq and Turkey hold meetings in Ankara to discuss technical issues related to the development road
Yesterday at 7:17 am by Rocky
» A government parliamentary agreement to support budget revenues and governorate allocations for inve
Yesterday at 7:16 am by Rocky
» Oil: The gas sector is witnessing great development
Yesterday at 7:15 am by Rocky
» A Kurdish-French agreement to develop trade and economic relations
Yesterday at 7:13 am by Rocky
» Exchange companies in Mosul demand that they be entered into the currency selling window
Yesterday at 7:12 am by Rocky