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Market Talk December 31, 2015


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Market Talk December 31, 2015

Post by Lobo on Thu Dec 31, 2015 6:28 pm

Market Talk December 31, 2015

Posted on December 31, 2015 by Martin Armstrong

It was very dull day to finish 2015 but not really surprising given the performance we have seen for the year. Shanghai has finished the year up 9.4% but it was the smaller Shenzhen Composite with a YTD gain of 63.2% that was the shinning star. The Nikkei added to its annual gain by an additional 0.27% bringing the YTD to 9.3%. Meanwhile, The Hang Seng saw a small 0.15% daily gain but closes the year up +7.2%. Australia (ASX) closed the year down 2%.

Europe saw negative day across the board. DAX, CAC and FTSE all closed lower (-1.08%, -0.86% and -0.51% respectively). Probably not surprising but on the year the DAX was the best performer returning 9.5% and then not far behind that the CAC returned 8.5%. In the UK the storey was very different with a negative 4.9% return for 2015. As you can imagine it was the Commodity Sector that made the dent for many markets. Shares in the large producers (Anglo American and Glencore) made a massive dent on markets as their shares had lost around 70% on the year. Worth a mention, as it is year end, is the IBEX (Spain) as the market closes -7.15% for the year but was trading with a gain (in April) of almost 19%.

After a weak opening the US market has regained over a hundred and fifty point drop and then gave it up for the close with the DOW closing below last year’s closing warning that it is not ready still for a breakout to the upside most likely putting it off until 2017-2020.

The US Dollars performance has been the talk of many a market and not least against other currencies. The Euro lost over 10% having started the year north of 1.1950 while finishing it under 1.09. Against a basket of currencies the USD in general has returned around 9% for the year.

In the Bond market we saw more flattening (marginally) with a 1-3 basis point lower yield across the curve. 2’s are closing the day around 1.05% with the rest of the curve as follows:- 5’s 1.76%, 10’s 2.27% and 30’s 3.01%. For the year the 10yr note has risen around 15BP whilst 30’s has gained 32BP. 5yr notes have gained 19BP and finally 2’s added 45bp’s for the year.

Finally, Gold has fallen back but held the 1044 number for the year-end closing. Silver significant ground closing well below its year-end number indicating that the deflationary wave is still in motion. Oil held the $35 number closing just over $37. This will leave $40 as the critical pivot point for the new year.

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