on: Sunday 01/17/2016 2:21
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/ Amer Diab al-Tamimi / Baghdad news
Arab economies rely on oil revenues in direct and indirect form. It is known that countries such as Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Iraq, Libya and Algeria are countries relied on oil revenues for decades to finance government spending, and employed public spending tools in order to stimulate activity in non-oil sectors. The other countries' economies, is affiliated to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), adopting the oil revenues to some extent, and these countries are Egypt, Syria, Yemen and Sudan, in addition to access, and countries are Arab net importers, to directly and indirectly from other Arab countries support oil producers or workers' remittances in those countries. Therefore can claim that the overall economy is the Arab oil economy par excellence, especially after the decline of the role of agriculture and manufacturing industries and a weak State capacity to export and collect the appropriate revenues for the consolidation of the financial potential. After the economic action financing structure became based on oil revenues through various economic mechanisms, the decline in oil prices that began in mid-2014, has become a worrying project with various economic departments in any of the Arab countries. Needless to say that prices may decline resulting in lower oil revenues for any of the Arab oil-producing countries by at least now about 60 percent compared with revenues in 2013. What we expect to happen during 2016 economically? And how should the economic departments in our Arab countries cope with the completion of the basic development projects and maintain decent living standards of the peoples of the region's requirements? There is no doubt that the complex challenges and are not trivial and require strenuous efforts and innovations in formulating financial and economic policies. But economic life after such a long passage of decades of dependence on oil and the mechanisms of public spending and its tools have become hostage to the values of the rentier economy which is run bureaucracies lack of innovation, creativity and development. Many businessmen in different Arab countries and indicates that they face obstacles is adaptable in dealing with government departments for projects approved license and then completed. In addition, the economic reform attempts that have approvals of sovereign departments in the various Arab countries being disabled departments Executive through various means, including illicit enrichment attempts to facilitate the implementation and completion operations. And it embarked on the laws and regulations over the past decades and years for the transfer of ownership of the systems and institutions of the public sector to the private sector, but delayed due to obstacles in those departments. This administrative and political realities mean that the face of declining oil prices and a decline in revenue through new economic policies aimed at diversifying the economic base and the employment of the private sector's potential and its funds may not be possible without the favorable development of Government completion and adoption of a structural correction bold programs. Economic data indicate that output GDP Arab nearly $ 2.8 trillion, or 3.8 percent of global GDP. Output GCC countries is estimated at $ 1.7 trillion or 61 percent of the GDP of the Arab countries. Here, the importance of the oil economy in the promotion of the GDP of the countries of the Gulf and its impact on the value of the total Arab economy. Gulf States that hunkered down high oil revenues over a decade became the face rationalization benefits and perhaps austerity. When now raise the question of the possibility of a review of support or rationalized it is facing resistance from the beneficiaries of various social strata, including underscores the importance of the adoption of real reform policies elevate the economies of the region and make them more able to cope with shocks, most notably the shock decline in oil revenues. The other Arab countries, the conditions of concern extreme, they do not have the financial means owned by Gulf countries that have been able to form Steddha sovereign funds in the coming years, if oil prices continued low. Arab countries are non-oil facing economic dilemmas difficult since the beginning of revolutions «Arab Spring» in 2011. Is it possible that Egypt beyond the situation that arose after the revolution of January 25, 2011, represented by low manufacturing sector productivity, high unemployment and declining tourism revenues and lower the country's income from cash foreign? It is true that the new government administration has worked to develop the Suez Canal in order to enhance its revenues, it is also working to establish security to stimulate investors to capital spending, as well as improve the tourism situation in the country, but there is a long way to go before the government is able to face all the benefits commitments. and applies to Tunisia trying to promote its economy under a complex security challenges. As for Yemen, Libya and Syria are suffering from the scourge of the political divide and exacerbate armed conflict and the weakness of the government administration and will not be able to improve their economies without a political processors satisfy the conflicting parties. Iraq is facing a large deficit in the government budget, especially after the aggravation of armed conflict with terrorism and its consequences and costs, at a time of declining development projects and business development facilities allocations. The Algeria are faced low oil and gas prices with little alternatives.
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