Established in 2006 as a Community of Reality

Welcome to the Neno's Place!

Neno's Place Established in 2006 as a Community of Reality

Iraq Dinar/News is a popular topic among many topics this board offers. You must log in to see and participate in our Dinar sections.

Ever heard of Bitcoin? I encourage you to veiw my 4 minute video about the Bitcoin of Health Care CoinMD. Just load set up a free 30 day test ride and contact me as needed. I have a Facebook informational page you can request to join for all my mist updates.


I can be reached by phone or text 7am-7pm cst 972-768-9772 or, once joining the board I can be reached by a (PM) Private Message.
Established in 2006 as a Community of Reality

Many Topics Including The Oldest Dinar Community. Copyright © 2006-2017

Why Models Fails – Increased Use or Faulty Design?


Posts : 26977
Thanked : 1438
Join date : 2013-01-12

Why Models Fails – Increased Use or Faulty Design?

Post by Lobo on Mon 21 Mar 2016, 2:34 pm

It seems successful trading/investing/forecasting systems work only when used by a few. When these same systems get adopted by more and more users their effectiveness diminishes to a point where they no longer work. Do you agree with this, and if yes do you think as your forecasts become more well known and applied they too would lose their effectiveness?

ANSWER: No. Systems fail because of a lack of historical data testing. For example, Black-Scholes failed and created the Long-Term Capital Management crisis in 1998 because the data used for developing the model was only back to 1971.
Models that only function within the “noise” level will work for a period and then totally fail. If you do not test something on the Great Depression, how can you expect that model to even survive such an event? It is IMPOSSIBLE to change the long-term trend. Everything is connected. To really make gold suppressed, you have to do that to all commodities. Create deflation when the central banks are trying desperately to create inflation without success, and it goes on and on.
These excuses are clearly by people who look to justify their “theory” behind some trend. The markets move collectively. There are no single trends for the market will arbitrage it into its proper place within the general scheme. So models that become less efficient were improperly designed from the outset. We are all behind the collective movement and that includes the average person who does not even trade or invest. The rest focus on unemployment, GDP, trade, etc. and respond to what? To the trend of the whole.
So garbage in = garbage out

    Current date/time is Tue 23 Jan 2018, 9:45 am