The deficit in the public budgets of the Federal .. and the future of oil in Iraq
9/19/2016 0:00
[rtl]Abdul - Zahra Mohammed Hindawi 's
budget in 2017 will not differ much from the current year 's budget in terms of total public spending or the size of the expected rate of investment side revenues, but there are details that may seem important will be present in the next budget from the most important to estimate the price of a barrel of oil will be $ 35 in the light of expectations suggest that prices will see an improvement starting from early next year until it reaches $ 71 at the end of the year, and this according to these expectations, the price difference between the estimated and the sale price tags will help reduce the proportion of thedeficit , amounting to about 30 percent, though the availability of such a surplus seems weak , with a payable financial benefits for companies licensing oil amounting to $ 12 billion is needed from the government fulfill them in 2017, and it seems clear also thepercentage contribution of oil from 92 percent in the current budget fell to 83 percent in the next draft budget of the total size of the expected arrival revenue to 70 trillion dinars , of which 57 trillion dinars from oil sales and the rest from other non sources of
oil.
this oil decline would give us a positive signal that the work vigorously to activate other sectors and increase its contribution to the budget support as alternatives to oil down to get out of the oil monounsaturated and dye rentier economy Iraq, despite the fact that the oil gap remains large and impressive, but in the end were not our choice at all but itis a matter of the governor of what could have been surpassed.
as long as the talk about the impact of oil in the economy will remain topping for decades to come before the world turns a large about some alternative sources of energy What is required here to see oil future long - term up to ten years based this vision on the basis of determining the average price for the sale of oil put upon which calculated the expected - revenue as oil experts talk and the economy - and the idea ofsetting a price maybe this will help in financing the annual deficit budgets through thecreation of sovereign funds to hold the amounts realized from the sale of more than theaverage price fixed, for the assumption that the average price for the period from 2017 up to 2027 would be fixed at $ 50 a barrel and then see prices rise during the first three years to $ 80 and then back to go down to 30 dollars in the three years that followed ,and experiencing fluctuations between the rise and fall in the last four years of theexperiment , and here is the scene as follows: when rising prices are the deposit amounts derived from the price increase in the first stage in the sovereign funds investing format and can utilize them to finance investment projects, but at some point fall in prices below the ceiling, it is certain that the budget will face a deficit and clear - this on the assumption that oil dependence remains Alsaid- here we can resort to thesurplus of the past years to finance the deficit while improving prices and thus could spare the economy violent tremors unexpected, and subject to the experiment to re -evaluate every two years to determine the diffraction and distractions in order to
evaluate them . Also be sure to experiment will achieve greater success if has development and revitalization of other sectors and increase its contribution to the GDP ,such as agriculture and tourism, as well as the revitalization of the tax base in thecountry, as it is almost Iraq is the only country in the world which is witnessing tax system is an actor, either because of the nature of the tax laws or because of corruption , which leads to the prevalence of the phenomenon of evading the payment of tax liabilities under the arguments of different, and in this context , the government can activate taxes and achieve good revenues as is the case in most countries of the world by educating the citizens of the importance of paying taxes and this awareness must be accompanied by encouraging action on the part of the strict on the other hand .. Perhaps one of the measures that can be used is to reduce the tax rate and the procedure can work in two directions: the first is to encourage citizens to whiten tax discharged Venhakq so good revenues to the treasury, while the second is to contribute to the fight against corruption because high tax rates pay - designate to look for ways to evade through bribery for this employee or that question, and information indicates that what goes into the pockets of corrupt is much more than the money involved the size ofthe
public treasury.
I believe that such visions and ideas raised by many economists they are looking for solutions to real and processors to improve the reality of the Iraqi economy can contribute to the economic reality of treatment, because of all the measures taken by thegovernment of preparing an austerity budget this year or next year , that goal was exceeded economic danger that was imminent in Iraq since the second half of the 2014 phase, it seems that the 2017 budget will be the budget of peace after the completion of «Daesh» completely before the end of this year , Allah willing , and here will betransformed military expenditure which is not a little to the reconstruction and theprovision of services, especially in areas
liberated. The government has already succeeded in its measures to get out of thebottleneck, although the challenges are still great and these challenges will grow more that is not the search for solutions and treatments have extended periods of short and medium time and this is one of the inputs to the national development plan to be prepared for the years 2018-2022.[/rtl]
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