The markets have been coiling, and quite frankly, this reminds me of when Pope John Paul II was shot, which was the first attempted assassination of a pope, on Wednesday, May 13, 1981, in St. Peter’s Square in Vatican City. Mehmet Ali Ağca, a Muslim, shot and wounded the Pope while he was entering the square. It did not set off a Christian-Muslim War. I remember the markets back then. This attempted assassination of the Pope followed the attempted assassination of United States President Ronald Reagan on March 30, 1981, which occurred 69 days into his presidency.
When Reagan was shot, the market sold off and made a low that day. When it was clear he was alive, the market rebounded the next day. When the Pope was shot a few weeks later, the markets went dead silent. Everyone was calling everybody, asking, “What do you think?” Nobody knew if it was a buy or a sell. The markets just went sideways. Nobody thought there would be some new Crusade with a clash between religions as we have today.
We are in the Year of Political Hell. Nobody knows what to do for the U.S. presidential elections are destabilizing public confidence. Trump is neck and neck with Hillary, although she is outspending him 10:1. Trump has more individuals donating to him while Hillary has all the bankers, hedge funds, and political manipulators who routinely buy government. She also has the press who support Hillary worldwide. The future is very much up in the air.
Then add the French and German elections next year, and the future is anything but predictable for the average person. This means investment is on hold. People are saving (hoarding cash) and deflation is continuing globally. Meanwhile, we are seeing world trade collapse. This is why the markets have been coiling. Money will not begin to really move until it figures out the direction.