St Louis Blues

UPDATED - Blues vs Wild series preview and other series predictions
April 12, 2017, 2:40 AM ET [22 Comments]
Jason Millen
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UPDATE -
The Wild are 3-7-1 against playoff teams since March 1 with two one goal wins (sans empty net goals) over the fading fast Sharks and a 5-1 win over the Erik Karlsson-less Senators.
The Blues on the other hand were 4-1-1 with their only regulation loss being a 2-1 loss at Anaheim. Go back to 2/1 and the Wild are 4-10-1 against playoff teams, adding only a win against the 8th seed Predators while the Blues are 8-4-1.

The narrative about the Blues having an easy schedule is true in that they capitalized on their games against weaker teams and had a few more since 3/1 (3 more than the Wild). The Blues went 11-2-1 against non-playoff teams in March and April. The Wild only went 5-5-1. Ouch when you consider they lost the division title by 3 points.

PRIOR
As everyone knows, the Blues will be facing off against the Minnesota Wild in the first round of the playoffs. You can find the crazy schedule of the series here.

There are a number of plots lines in this series. Mike Yeo gets to coach against the team that fired him. The Blues face assistant coach Scott Stevens, a former captain of the team and someone who turned down an assistant coaching job before the season started. Kyle Brodziak, Christ Stewart and Nate Prosser will be facing their former teams.

There is the unusual playoff results of coach Bruce Boudreau. His teams have been knocked out in the first round in half of his playoff series even though they were the division winner in all 8 series. He has lost 7 of his 8 playoff series losses in game sevens. While Boudreau has a 51.3% playoff game winning percentage, his playoff series winning percentage is only 41.7% and his winning percentage against Central Division opponents is only 33.3%.

There are also the plot lines of Vladimir Sobotka’s late return from the KHL, the unknown injury status of Paul Stastny, Nail Yakupov and Robert Bortuzzo and Jared Spurgeon having sat out the last few games with a lower body injury.

In looking to preview the series, a few things have really stood out to me. The first is that the Wild seem to be the chic pick to win the Cup after you get past those picking the Capitals and the statistical models seemed completely skewed to pick the Wild. The models base their playoff picks on regular seasons statistics. They did very well last year even if the teams that won didn’t win because they performed well in the categories used in the model. Last year’s best model, @shane1342o has the Wild at 71%. The 2nd best prior year model from @DTMAboutHeart has the Wild at 67.7%.

I did some digging at www.corsica.hockey and noted a few things in their advanced and expected statistics. I compared their data for the two teams since 3/1/17 and noted a number of things. The Blues actual goals against per 60 minutes was 1.51 while Corsica had their expected goals against per 60 almost 1/3 higher at 2.09. The Wild’s expected goals against had an even bigger variation in the other direction. The Wild had actual goals against per 60 of 2.67 but expected goals against per 60 of 1.78, a 37.5% reduction. Actual save percentages versus expected or normal save percentages have an impact on this, essentially suggestion that hot goalies will fall back to the norm and that goalies in a rough patch will improve to the norm. The Blues had an actual 94.8% save percentage while the Wild’s was only 89.88%. Given that the data covered more than ¼ of the season, is the size of their adjustment in save percentage appropriate? The expected advanced stats would suggest that the Wild were the ones who won 15 games, not the Blues.

In actual statistics, the Wild were substantially better in face-offs and zone start and finish ratios. Given the Blues injuries, you would expect the face-off issue. The Zone ratios illustrate that the Wild are forcing a lot more offensive zone face-offs. When you pair this with their face-off prowess, this could be problematic for the Blues.

In looking at the series on my own, I looked at a number of other data points:
1) The Wild were 8-11-2 in their last 21 games while the Blues were 15-4-2.
2) The Wild had two months of less than a 50% point percentage. The Blues only had one.
3) The Wild had the worst month of the two teams (March).
4) Both teams had the same April record.
5) Outside of the Wild’s 30-6-2 run from 12/4 to 2/28, they were only 19-19-5.
6) When looking at Corsi and Fenwick Close rations, the Blues were 8th and 10th in the league while the Wild were 15th and 13th.
7) The Wild had the 2nd best PDO while the Blues were 10th.
8) The Wild were a lot better at shot creation but a lot worse at shot suppression.
9) The Blues were better on both the power play and penalty kill.
10) The Wild were better in goal generation and goal suppression.
11) The Blues won the season series 3-2.
12) Dubnyk has been in the bottom 10-15% of starting goalies in save percentage in 2017 while Allen has been the best since February 1st.

For me, this series comes down to who plays better, Jake Allen of Devan Dubnyk. If the
goalies play even, I think the Blues take the series.

Barring any unforeseen injury healing, expect the lines to start like this:
Schwartz – Barbashev – Tarasenko
Paajarvi – Berglund - Perron
Sobotka – Lehtera - Steen
Upshall – Brodziak – Reaves
Bouwmeester – Pietrangelo
Edmundson - Parayko
Gunnarsson - Schmaltz
Allen

In the other series:
- I appreciate the year that Connor McDavid, Cam Talbot and the Oilers have had this season but I think it ends to the Sharks in 6 games. The Sharks are substantially better in Corsi and Fenwick close and have a lot more experience. The Oilers better special teams are somewhat negated by the Sharks discipline and lack of penalties. Look out for the Oilers next year.
- While I really hope the Flames advance to the Western Conference Finals, I have a hard time seeing how they get past the Ducks. The Ducks are better in most categories and I think they win the series in seven.
- The Predators and Hawks is one of the more difficult series for me to predict other than I really believe it will go seven games. I think the Hawks win in game seven but it wouldn’t surprise me if the Predators won the series. Special teams and shot generation and suppression favor the Predators as do Corsi and Fenwick close. The Hawks are better in goal and shot suppression, mostly due to their superior PDO.
- Washington dominates almost every category over the Leafs (except shots per game and power play) and has more experience. This feels like the Capitals in five to me.
- Boston also wins almost every statistical category over the Senators (except power play opportunities and PDO) but the Senators have beaten the Bruins in 8 of the last 10 games. Perhaps it’s a sentimental pick due to what Craig Anderson has gone through this year but I’m pulling for the Senators in seven though my head says the Bruins win the series.
- Montreal seems a bit like the Blues in that they have better Corsi and Fenwick close numbers, better shot suppression and better overall special teams than the Rangers. I think they win in six.
- The Penguins and Blue Jackets seem pretty evenly matched, especially when you consider Kris Letang is out. I think the Penguins experience and ability to generate power plays wins them the series in five games unless Bobrovsky can steal a game and then I think it goes seven.

It’s a great day for hockey.

Fellow Hockeybuzz bloggers Nashville Predator's Paul McCann, Winnipeg Jet's Peter Tessier and Minnesota Wild's Dan Wallace have generously agreed to a friendly charity wager. Since the Hawks won the division and JJ didn’t participate, Dan Wallace got to choose the charity. Dan graciously agreed to also donate since the Wild didn’t actually win the division. Dan picked United Heroes League (https://unitedheroesleague.org/) who helps keep military kids active and healthy while their parents serve their country, helping more than 40,000 military families keep or start their kids in sports through game tickets, sports equipment, camps and grants. Dan and I have made a charity on this series as well.