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a. Dr.. Abdul Hussein Al-Anbuge *: dialectic of the Iraqi dinar exchange rate
by Dr.. Abdul Hussein Al-Anbuge
- published in 06/06/2017
Ten years ago I personally think that monetary policy is contractionary compatible with the expansionary fiscal policy, I have written a lot of research and articles in it, as you type about the exchange rate [...]
Ten years ago I personally think that monetary policy is contractionary not compatible with the expansionary fiscal policy, I have written a lot of research and articles in it, as you type about the exchange rate overvalued the dinar and how he has contributed significantly to the destruction of the productive base in Iraq and creating deflationary pressures big. This is not the jurisprudence of me, but economic theories are saying, it is March to protect the foreign product angle, and from another angle to make the practice of commercial banks classical functions in the lending credit is inefficient and create in front of the large profits made by these banks due to trading in currency (the dollar) just entering auction. With a view to note I would like to point out that I did not call on float the dinar, as Egypt did with the pound recently, because I am fully aware of some potential social costs, but demanded for years and in periods of prosperity in which public budgets saturated gradually to raise the value of the dollar against the dinar, any devaluation of the dinar because cheap dollar encouraging local importer and repellent product. Some economists, including my brother, and my colleague appearance of Dr. Mohammed Saleh, against this trend when he was an adviser to the central bank governor and then his deputy until finally when his work in the Office of the Prime Minister to convene a consultant, who sought him all the excuses scientific opinion as are the other opinions of specialists they are respectable without the slightest doubt, and that you have surprised a lot recent article published in several locations, which was not successful neither in science after him not in terms of style as clamping on advocates to reduce the value of the dinar and describing them with treason and that they are a group of economists who support terrorism and that they dollar owners, a the word is not consistent with any of A scientific approach, as well as it is no secret that every person in Iraq has become known for its history and Muftdha thanks to social networking sites. Therefore, I have to stop bidding, and the accusations and put the country's interests first and think statesmanlike in finding a solution to the problem of auction currency and exchange rate.
The crises of the world brothers were often crises shrink (high unemployment), not crises inflation because inflation carries with running larger rates and by extension, the entry distributed production elements more, yes eroded their purchasing power by downright inflation, but the corrosion rate is proportional and the rate of the increase in entry does not cause panic nor revolution nor collapses as it gets when the economy hit a wave of contraction. Because we are the people of a young population growth of 3% at a rate and we have more than a million young people annually entering the labor market, a staggering figure compared with opportunities available to work that do not exceed a quarter of a million jobs, the anger of young people accumulated as a result of unemployment and the cycle of despair and loss of hope could create a ticking time bomb, it is possible that devour any spark transient and most green and dry to burn, certainly will be much more dangerous than the waves of rising prices Praised economically and socially undesirable. But economic Mahmoud action can address the social burden with time because it will create operational, the social action Mahmoud will not be able never to get us out of economic decline, but Segerna with time more relaxing and more reliance on what is imported and more ignorance of the letter and the professions and production after the period of interruption between generations due to stop production base and the disruption of technological lines inherited and imported deflection towards consumption technology and recreational production is not, then it will be the Iraqi nation (a nation Tnabul) in grave danger subsist on the gift of the sky (oil) which is for Unfortunately, subject to variables external and luster fleeting, if we want jobs for our children in the private sector we have to reduce the value of the dinar against the dollar, what is the value of setting tariff Kmarkip to protect the local product, ie the practice of tax policy (part of fiscal policy) protectionism on the one hand, the dollar and make cheap in front of the dinar (monetary policy reverse protectionism), but is to protect the importer on the other hand, ie, that the two effects of the two policies contradict each other, meaning that both of the (protective and Allahamaia) each will eat the other effect as if caught in a vicious circle and did not do anything, ie the exchange rate overvalued in which swallowed the margin protection provided by the customs tariff remained Local product from the market and expelled remained disabled productive sectors and we import all our children and without work.
Opponents believe that the rise in the dollar exchange rate will make imported expensive carries with it the highest inflation rates, and the fact that I do not deny that the impact in the short term, but he soon gradually disappear in the medium term and long-term, but that Mahmoud anticipated impact is the rise in prices of imported and that did not rise prices have reduced the value of the dinar to no avail, and without meaning, and achieve the goal. The goal is to make imported expensive to domestic demand is moving towards the local product gets production and spin wheels machines are employment and distributed more entry to factors of production, and when they become the increase in the entry of distributed elements of production operating result driven by the demand for their products rise greater than the decline in the first instance in the purchasing power of individuals as a result of higher imported goods and services prices, the positive impact of the devaluation of the dinar have already begun. This may require a period (spawning) may extend from six months to one year in most productive activities, as the length of time required to adapt depends on the degree of flexibility of the productive sector and the degree of domestic supply of domestic demand in response to the vector. Since the production lines are often available, but it stopped working as a result of supporting the importer's economic policy for years, the available production capacities accelerate response and contraction adjustment period (incubation) and consequently shrinking the likely social burden, since there are more than 70 thousand turned off in Baghdad factory only, it is easy to provide if the demand for the production of these plants to re-open its doors and the exercise of their production and restart their workers after the rising price of imported and become our local competition.
Egypt, a good example, despite the fragility of its economy beyond what we have, and the entry level is very low people, it has been floating the pound, with the dollar price increased from US $ 1 = 700 pounds, to $ 1 = 2,000 pounds in two years, has resulted in a decline in the purchasing power of individuals up to 40%, but they know that this treatment over them willing to handle a period of time to heal the economy and heal the economy heals society. We in Iraq whenever we wanted to take this medicine even in periods of prosperity and the voices of the poor have made a peg to stand with his face, may hide that personal interests do not want to address it, especially since the whales entering profits to the auction is supposed to be not affected.
Egypt has crossed the period, or almost that crossed the entire moved wheel production investors for their plants and returned as long as the Egyptian citizen is no longer able to buy imported high price head down the domestic product, opened factories shuttered and regained the employment of workers, graduates, unemployment has fallen and has become the economy is going through a recovery is still in the first and growing gradually and indicators of improvement in the trade balance of various commodities My periodically going high rates in favor of the Egyptian product. We are still Ntnahr in Byzantine discussions and Nlsq charges haphazardly to each other without Nkti a serious step to review the subject of the auction currency. In periods of prosperity Ardhana some of the brothers, including the appearance of dear Dr., it was in 2008 and in 2010 and in 2012 and in 2013, where the budgets are replete, and Ardhana the same argument that prices will rise and will have a negative social impact. Ok, my teacher Mr. I originally wanted the prices of imported goods to go up, but the goal is not achieved, a side effect will inevitably be essential for the treatment we do, is it possible for a cancer patient refused treatment because his hair Eemiaoa Setsaqt. My brothers, honest if we work this treatment has since recovered our economy and regained his hair that loss, and the government could in those periods to increase social protection allocations to prevent fragile from vulnerable segments, rather than large allocations are called investment bellowed in paving the streets paved over and over again and leave the streets It is paved, and remove the sidewalks and metropolitan re-paved repeatedly, in order to provide easy opportunities for the growth of corruption in the absence of a whale sergeant hard and sometimes no party. And still opponents to reduce the exchange rate of the dinar to the price today, the economy is in dire need be to rescue and operating excuse is the same argument and lamenting the poor, but are encouraged to go to external borrowing and entering the country in the dark debt tunnel again in order to continue to pump millions daily in the currency auction in order to maintain the virginity dinar from scratch and keep the pioneers of the auction profits. Virginity macroeconomic it becomes threatened, and are falling, there are hundreds of billions of dollars we can get from our economy when we adopt accounts (cost / benefit) for each asset owned by the state, and when the state give up properties land and large assets are disabled and neglected without return, and can to get them billions of dollars if sold or enabled by the private sector, according to any method suitable for privatization, but has not done so far, or it is moving at a very moderate pace, because they are trying to pay heed to the outside only (oil revenues or borrowing). They do not understand there is no alternative. Who holds the reins of the Ministry of Finance Astsel borrowing and the economy find it difficult to move and to maximize returns or that unknown, there may be reasons for emotional or Barracikolojah I am not aware of, and perhaps Otjahlha, and no power but God Almighty.
(*) Chairman of our economy, the Organization for Sustainable Development
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by Dr.. Abdul Hussein Al-Anbuge
- published in 06/06/2017
Ten years ago I personally think that monetary policy is contractionary compatible with the expansionary fiscal policy, I have written a lot of research and articles in it, as you type about the exchange rate [...]
Ten years ago I personally think that monetary policy is contractionary not compatible with the expansionary fiscal policy, I have written a lot of research and articles in it, as you type about the exchange rate overvalued the dinar and how he has contributed significantly to the destruction of the productive base in Iraq and creating deflationary pressures big. This is not the jurisprudence of me, but economic theories are saying, it is March to protect the foreign product angle, and from another angle to make the practice of commercial banks classical functions in the lending credit is inefficient and create in front of the large profits made by these banks due to trading in currency (the dollar) just entering auction. With a view to note I would like to point out that I did not call on float the dinar, as Egypt did with the pound recently, because I am fully aware of some potential social costs, but demanded for years and in periods of prosperity in which public budgets saturated gradually to raise the value of the dollar against the dinar, any devaluation of the dinar because cheap dollar encouraging local importer and repellent product. Some economists, including my brother, and my colleague appearance of Dr. Mohammed Saleh, against this trend when he was an adviser to the central bank governor and then his deputy until finally when his work in the Office of the Prime Minister to convene a consultant, who sought him all the excuses scientific opinion as are the other opinions of specialists they are respectable without the slightest doubt, and that you have surprised a lot recent article published in several locations, which was not successful neither in science after him not in terms of style as clamping on advocates to reduce the value of the dinar and describing them with treason and that they are a group of economists who support terrorism and that they dollar owners, a the word is not consistent with any of A scientific approach, as well as it is no secret that every person in Iraq has become known for its history and Muftdha thanks to social networking sites. Therefore, I have to stop bidding, and the accusations and put the country's interests first and think statesmanlike in finding a solution to the problem of auction currency and exchange rate.
The crises of the world brothers were often crises shrink (high unemployment), not crises inflation because inflation carries with running larger rates and by extension, the entry distributed production elements more, yes eroded their purchasing power by downright inflation, but the corrosion rate is proportional and the rate of the increase in entry does not cause panic nor revolution nor collapses as it gets when the economy hit a wave of contraction. Because we are the people of a young population growth of 3% at a rate and we have more than a million young people annually entering the labor market, a staggering figure compared with opportunities available to work that do not exceed a quarter of a million jobs, the anger of young people accumulated as a result of unemployment and the cycle of despair and loss of hope could create a ticking time bomb, it is possible that devour any spark transient and most green and dry to burn, certainly will be much more dangerous than the waves of rising prices Praised economically and socially undesirable. But economic Mahmoud action can address the social burden with time because it will create operational, the social action Mahmoud will not be able never to get us out of economic decline, but Segerna with time more relaxing and more reliance on what is imported and more ignorance of the letter and the professions and production after the period of interruption between generations due to stop production base and the disruption of technological lines inherited and imported deflection towards consumption technology and recreational production is not, then it will be the Iraqi nation (a nation Tnabul) in grave danger subsist on the gift of the sky (oil) which is for Unfortunately, subject to variables external and luster fleeting, if we want jobs for our children in the private sector we have to reduce the value of the dinar against the dollar, what is the value of setting tariff Kmarkip to protect the local product, ie the practice of tax policy (part of fiscal policy) protectionism on the one hand, the dollar and make cheap in front of the dinar (monetary policy reverse protectionism), but is to protect the importer on the other hand, ie, that the two effects of the two policies contradict each other, meaning that both of the (protective and Allahamaia) each will eat the other effect as if caught in a vicious circle and did not do anything, ie the exchange rate overvalued in which swallowed the margin protection provided by the customs tariff remained Local product from the market and expelled remained disabled productive sectors and we import all our children and without work.
Opponents believe that the rise in the dollar exchange rate will make imported expensive carries with it the highest inflation rates, and the fact that I do not deny that the impact in the short term, but he soon gradually disappear in the medium term and long-term, but that Mahmoud anticipated impact is the rise in prices of imported and that did not rise prices have reduced the value of the dinar to no avail, and without meaning, and achieve the goal. The goal is to make imported expensive to domestic demand is moving towards the local product gets production and spin wheels machines are employment and distributed more entry to factors of production, and when they become the increase in the entry of distributed elements of production operating result driven by the demand for their products rise greater than the decline in the first instance in the purchasing power of individuals as a result of higher imported goods and services prices, the positive impact of the devaluation of the dinar have already begun. This may require a period (spawning) may extend from six months to one year in most productive activities, as the length of time required to adapt depends on the degree of flexibility of the productive sector and the degree of domestic supply of domestic demand in response to the vector. Since the production lines are often available, but it stopped working as a result of supporting the importer's economic policy for years, the available production capacities accelerate response and contraction adjustment period (incubation) and consequently shrinking the likely social burden, since there are more than 70 thousand turned off in Baghdad factory only, it is easy to provide if the demand for the production of these plants to re-open its doors and the exercise of their production and restart their workers after the rising price of imported and become our local competition.
Egypt, a good example, despite the fragility of its economy beyond what we have, and the entry level is very low people, it has been floating the pound, with the dollar price increased from US $ 1 = 700 pounds, to $ 1 = 2,000 pounds in two years, has resulted in a decline in the purchasing power of individuals up to 40%, but they know that this treatment over them willing to handle a period of time to heal the economy and heal the economy heals society. We in Iraq whenever we wanted to take this medicine even in periods of prosperity and the voices of the poor have made a peg to stand with his face, may hide that personal interests do not want to address it, especially since the whales entering profits to the auction is supposed to be not affected.
Egypt has crossed the period, or almost that crossed the entire moved wheel production investors for their plants and returned as long as the Egyptian citizen is no longer able to buy imported high price head down the domestic product, opened factories shuttered and regained the employment of workers, graduates, unemployment has fallen and has become the economy is going through a recovery is still in the first and growing gradually and indicators of improvement in the trade balance of various commodities My periodically going high rates in favor of the Egyptian product. We are still Ntnahr in Byzantine discussions and Nlsq charges haphazardly to each other without Nkti a serious step to review the subject of the auction currency. In periods of prosperity Ardhana some of the brothers, including the appearance of dear Dr., it was in 2008 and in 2010 and in 2012 and in 2013, where the budgets are replete, and Ardhana the same argument that prices will rise and will have a negative social impact. Ok, my teacher Mr. I originally wanted the prices of imported goods to go up, but the goal is not achieved, a side effect will inevitably be essential for the treatment we do, is it possible for a cancer patient refused treatment because his hair Eemiaoa Setsaqt. My brothers, honest if we work this treatment has since recovered our economy and regained his hair that loss, and the government could in those periods to increase social protection allocations to prevent fragile from vulnerable segments, rather than large allocations are called investment bellowed in paving the streets paved over and over again and leave the streets It is paved, and remove the sidewalks and metropolitan re-paved repeatedly, in order to provide easy opportunities for the growth of corruption in the absence of a whale sergeant hard and sometimes no party. And still opponents to reduce the exchange rate of the dinar to the price today, the economy is in dire need be to rescue and operating excuse is the same argument and lamenting the poor, but are encouraged to go to external borrowing and entering the country in the dark debt tunnel again in order to continue to pump millions daily in the currency auction in order to maintain the virginity dinar from scratch and keep the pioneers of the auction profits. Virginity macroeconomic it becomes threatened, and are falling, there are hundreds of billions of dollars we can get from our economy when we adopt accounts (cost / benefit) for each asset owned by the state, and when the state give up properties land and large assets are disabled and neglected without return, and can to get them billions of dollars if sold or enabled by the private sector, according to any method suitable for privatization, but has not done so far, or it is moving at a very moderate pace, because they are trying to pay heed to the outside only (oil revenues or borrowing). They do not understand there is no alternative. Who holds the reins of the Ministry of Finance Astsel borrowing and the economy find it difficult to move and to maximize returns or that unknown, there may be reasons for emotional or Barracikolojah I am not aware of, and perhaps Otjahlha, and no power but God Almighty.
(*) Chairman of our economy, the Organization for Sustainable Development
[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]
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