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Established in 2006 as a Community of Reality

Welcome to the Neno's Place!

Neno's Place Established in 2006 as a Community of Reality


Neno

I can be reached by phone or text 8am-7pm cst 972-768-9772 or, once joining the board I can be reached by a (PM) Private Message.

Established in 2006 as a Community of Reality

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Established in 2006 as a Community of Reality

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    REPORT: IRAQ IS ON THE VERGE OF CHAOS SIMILAR TO THE SITUATION IN SOMALIA

    Rocky
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    REPORT: IRAQ IS ON THE VERGE OF CHAOS SIMILAR TO THE SITUATION IN SOMALIA Empty REPORT: IRAQ IS ON THE VERGE OF CHAOS SIMILAR TO THE SITUATION IN SOMALIA

    Post by Rocky Mon 13 Aug 2018, 3:23 am

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    The high level of forgery, the low participation rate and the division of votes on the political parties, made the May 12 elections catastrophic. These elections put legitimacy and the authority of the Iraqi government in question, on the one hand, and on the other left no choice but the next government, Year-old, sectarian-based system that makes corruption a prime mechanism for government action. An American expert on Iraq sees Iraq as "a major disaster."

    Bad elections

    Iraq's expert on Iraq, Kennes Pollack, visited Iraq on June 18-23 and prepared a report. During his visit, Pollack met with current and former senior officials in Iraq. While official data indicate a participation rate of more than 44% in the elections, Pollack says that many in Iraq agree that the real participation rate, if not less than 20%, can not exceed it.
    The American expert identifies three characteristics of the Iraqi elections warning of the deteriorating political and administrative situation in Iraq. First, the low participation rate "reflects the common idea in Iraq that there is no political leader who can meet the demands of the people."
    The second issue is the high level of forgery by political parties. The report in this regard refers to both the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan and Asaib Ahl al-Haq. While the bulk of the fraud is linked to corruption and bribery of members of the Iraqi High Electoral Commission, who contributed to the victory of candidates for bribes received from them.
    The third option, which Pollack describes as the "curse," is that "the 2018 elections formed a disbanded parliament that would be expected to form a good government," because its results would force Iraqis to accept a national unity government. "Each party has a number of ministers, Government funds for the parties to which they belong. "

    Wrath of the street

    The Baghdadis and the people of the southern cities did not wait to see the results of the manual counting. They went out to the streets protesting the water and electricity shortage and the spread of unemployment, because the Iraqis are convinced that "counting and counting will change nothing, and the new government will have neither the will nor the will to make any change."
    In his report, Pollack stressed that the importance of the recent Iraqi protest demonstrations is that "the demonstrators are not Sunni Arabs who are angry at the fall of their rule, and are not Kurds who dream of independence, but of the Shiite, which consists of political parties that run the power of power."
    When talking about the problems of water and electricity, the Iraqi government is pointing fingers at Iran and Turkey, but Pollack attributed the assets to the "lack of capacity, paralysis and corruption" in the Baghdad government, where "the laws are being passed without implementation, and announce projects that are not implemented, but The contractor was foreign. " 

    Do not hope to solve the inside

    The report of the American expert that there is no reason to hope that the Iraqi government can solve the suffering of the people, one of the reasons is the Iraqi political and administrative system that restricts the government and impedes its work, and this same system, which made Maliki, the 89 parliamentary seats " The Iraqi bureaucracy hard-boiled, "under such circumstances is not known what can be accomplished by Muqtada al-Sadr 54 seats or Haider Abadi with 42 parliamentary seats.
    The United States invested much in Abadi's success in the May 12, 2018 elections, but it failed. Pollack said Abadi "was the biggest victim of electoral fraud. A large percentage of his votes went to Asaib Ahl al-Haq and small groups."
    There are a large number of names for the presidency of the Iraqi Ministry of the coming, including the leader of the Badr Organization and the alliance of conquest, Hadi Amiri, yet Pollak believes that the current Iraqi prime minister has the opportunity to win the post for a second term "because it is the second best options available to all parties, To agree on the first of the best options, "and although it is impossible for Abadi in this case to make a fundamental change, because his position during the last four years weak in the Dawa Party and the Shiites of Iraq.
    Polak also points out that the Kurds are also in dire straits, because "the PUK is suffering from internal blocs, and its rigging was so obvious that it even embarrassed the Kurdistan Democratic Party, which is a partner of this party."
    In such circumstances, the best result for the Kurds is the division of the Shia into competing alliances, because the Kurds will then be able to "use their seats, which exceeds 40 seats, to reach new agreements on oil revenues, oil market and borders (with the Iraqi side) "If the Shiites agree to form a government, the Kurds should negotiate with a united Shiite front." But not a Shiite negotiator can give much to the Kurds "for fear of being accused of giving up the Kurds."

    A disaster for Iraq

    The report warns that most of the scenarios that are expected, through the present situation of Iraq, are bad prospects and a large number of them are "disastrously bad," so that "Iraq must be recognized as ready for revolution." The reason is the large gap between the living conditions that people expect and the situation they live The people actually, and this was in previous experiences, "a preliminary warning of the revolution, and the unrest in the Shiite areas in southern Iraq, preliminary indications of what is waiting for Iraq."
    Over the past decade and a half, all Iraqi governments have pledged to work to solve the problems and suffering of the people. But whenever a government is formed, it returns to corruption and procrastination. Polak does not rule out that the next Iraqi government will suffer the same disease "because the government of national unity will once again adopt a regime Ineffective and paralyzed, and this could turn public discontent into a determination to change the government. "
    The process of forming a new government could pave the way for a revolution, especially if some of the main powers are excluded from the process. Pollack believes that "if the Fatah is excluded from the government this time, they will have the status to lead a revolution."
    The Iraqi history contains examples of situations similar to the current situation, in which a political or military figure is emboldened to protect the country and save the people from suffering to demand absolute power in order to carry out radical reforms in the regime. The report does not exclude repeating this scenario. The regime and retained absolute power under the pretext of working to build a modern Iraq, and became a dictator.
    Another possibility is that the wave of discontent will peak and the public's mistrust of power will rise. In this case, as the report states, "Many will leave Iraq, many will no longer be interested in what is going on in Baghdad and they will fight the government's efforts to manage their areas."
    Kennes Pollack does not rule out that this scenario will continue for a long time because "different groups and elites will seek greater share of the vast oil wealth for themselves" which will deepen conflicts and disagreements more.
    In the last 15 years, the situation in Iraq has gone to the worst after each election, which makes the American researcher believe that the current wave of popular resentment will pave the way for the birth of another scenario, "Iraq will be more divided and will disintegrate sooner or later and Iraq will return only a name on the map, And in this regard refers to the attempts of Basra and Mosul to establish territories, and does not exclude that pave the Iraqi government "unqualified and paralyzed" in order to return Kurds try to gain their independence.
    "In such complex and chaotic circumstances, Iraq will easily go into political chaos similar to that of Somalia, and another round of civil war will begin within Iraqi society. History tells us that this is a common model and may be very difficult to prevent at some point."

    What is going on?

    Pollack writes about two decades ago about the security situation in the Middle East and Iraq. During 1988-1995 he was an adviser to the CIA on Iraqi and Iranian military affairs. He was an expert on Iraq in 2003, but now opposes the idea of ​​a revolution in Iraq and believes that preventing it is still possible.
    "Revolutions are rare throughout history, because people generally do not go to revolutions and do not resort to overthrowing regimes unless they lose every other option," says Pollack. "So if the people get the hope of reforming the situation, more time can be gained from it. "And can work during this time obtained long-term plans.
    The disgruntled demonstrations have characterized Baghdad and southern Iraq for more than a month and are generally focused on the lack of basic services and the absence of job opportunities. The American researcher stresses that the most important manifestation of resentment is that he is "directed to the Iraqi leadership and not to the political system. The people are dissatisfied with the lack of capacity and desire for government reform But they have not yet called for the end of democracy, nor do they support the deceitful figures who are trying to topple the regime and pledge to reform. "The demonstrations do not support any political party but reject all elites and political groups in the country.
    Pollack points out that this is an important set of advantages, although the Iraqi government is sophisticated and has the support of the United States of America. It is possible to curb the protests and "reverse the situation." To achieve this, "within a year or less, Iraqis "to show the people that" the government has begun to solve these problems and prove to its people that it has the will and ability to cultivate hope among the people. " Finished / Kh.

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