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Established in 2006 as a Community of Reality

Welcome to the Neno's Place!

Neno's Place Established in 2006 as a Community of Reality


Neno

I can be reached by phone or text 8am-7pm cst 972-768-9772 or, once joining the board I can be reached by a (PM) Private Message.

Established in 2006 as a Community of Reality

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Established in 2006 as a Community of Reality

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    A significant drop in Iranian oil exports but not to zero

    Rocky
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    A significant drop in Iranian oil exports but not to zero Empty A significant drop in Iranian oil exports but not to zero

    Post by Rocky Sat 04 May 2019, 9:08 am

    A significant drop in Iranian oil exports but not to zero %C3%B8-%C3%BA-%C3%B9_-%C3%B9_-%C3%B9-be%C3%B8-%C3%BA_%C3%B9_-%C3%B8-%C3%B9_%C3%B8-%C3%B8-%C3%B9_



    A significant drop in Iranian oil exports but not to zero



     2019/05/03 11:37:09
    Iran's crude exports will decline in May as Washington tightens its grip on Tehran's main source of income, deepening the global supply lost by US sanctions on Venezuela and OPEC-led cuts, oil industry sources said.
    The United States re-imposed sanctions on Iran in November after withdrawing from the 2015 nuclear deal between Tehran and the six world powers. These sanctions have already reduced Iranian oil exports by more than half to one million barrels a day or less.
    Washington, aiming to halt Iran's sales altogether, said all exemptions for Iranian oil importers would end this week. Iran says a complete halt is not going to happen, but its officials are ready to drop supplies.
    An Iranian official familiar with oil policy said exports could drop to 700,000 bpd and possibly 500,000 bpd from May onwards. An OPEC source said Iranian exports were likely to continue at about 400 to 600,000 bpd.
    Analyst Sarah Fakshouri said Iran was likely to be able to maintain some shipments to pay debts due to China and India, pump them into China's stockpiles, and smuggle a limited amount as it did under previous sanctions.
    "It is important to note that zero oil sales in May does not mean that there will be no oil deliveries to China or India during the month.
     
    "Overall, Iran can export between 200 and 550 thousand (barrels per day) of oil. Not fully oil-selling. "
    Analysts at Energy Associates predict a drop in Iranian shipments to about 600,000 bpd from May.
    Iran's exports have been ambiguously overshadowed by the return of US sanctions in November. Tehran no longer reports to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) production figures and there is no confirmed export information.
    Some of Iran's oil exports are not already allocated, making it more difficult to assess the actual size.
    According to the estimates of Recentiv Aikon and Kepler, a company that monitors oil flows, the OPEC member exported between 1.02 million and 1.30 million barrels per day of crude and condensates in April.
    OPEC headache
    Scarcity of information is a headache for other Opec members and their allies, who meet to decide on the June policy. OPEC canceled a meeting due in April, partly because of this uncertainty.
    Industry sources said Saudi Aramco, which is expected to become the main source of any additional oil to replace Iranian quantities, is investigating the market for estimates of Iran's exports.
    Iranian oil officials find this opacity welcome. Tehran insists it will continue to sell oil and says it is exploring new ways to do so, Oil Minister Pein Zinkaneh said in remarks published on Wednesday.
    Keros, a company that monitors oil flows, estimated Iranian crude exports in March at 1.40 to 1.65 million bpd.
     
    "The uncertainty surrounding the decline is due to the inherent uncertainty about the exact number of Iranian tankers operating in secret," the company said in a report.
    For years, the oil industry has been tracking the movement of tankers to deduce the actual volume of supplies in the absence of immediate official information. While satellite information has made it easier than ever, monitoring the movement of tankers remains a mixture of art and science.
    When loading Iranian oil, tankers sometimes close the signal of an automatic identification system, an automatic tracking system used by ships, and then restart it at a later stage of the trip, according to an oil sector source, making it more difficult to know the actual quantities.
    But there is general agreement that crude shipments fell from at least 2.5 million bpd in April 2018, a month before US President Donald Trump decided to withdraw the United States from the nuclear deal with Iran.


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