Baghdad faces difficulties in subjecting Kurdistan to the decisions of the Federal Court on oil

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[size=52]Baghdad faces difficulties in subjecting Kurdistan to the decisions of the Federal Court on oil[/size]

[size=52][size=48][size=31]Researchers: Laws and the constitution are always subject to “political bargaining”[/size][/size][/size]
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 FRIDAY 4 MARCH 2022  
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[size=45]The presidencies of the Kurdistan region reject the decision of the Federal Court on oil (AFP)[/size]


[size=45]The decision  [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] regarding  the unconstitutionality of  [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] ’s administration of  its oil file has put the Baghdad government in a difficult position, in light of the Kurds’ enjoyment of elements that give them the ability to maneuver to impose the principle of “political consensus,” while observers agree that the decision will eventually be subject to “bargains” between the forces after it has been exceeded. The current crisis in the formation of the new government.[/size]
[size=45]On February 15, the Federal Court issued a decision obligating the region to “hand over  [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]  from the region’s fields to the federal government, and to allow the Ministry of Oil and the Federal Office of Financial Supervision” to “review the contracts,” and considered the oil and gas law enacting the region “contrary to the constitution.” .[/size]
[size=45]The region’s presidencies, the government, parliament, the Judicial Council and the Presidency of the Region, after a meeting last Monday, described the decision as “unacceptable because it violates the text and principles of the federal system, and it is an unconstitutional amendment to the constitution and takes away the powers of the regions in favor of the federal authority.” Legal and constitutional ways to preserve it.[/size]
[size=45]The decision raises questions about future scenarios, amid difficulties in the steps and mechanism of actually implementing the decision between the two governments, which have been suffering from a chronic dispute for more than a decade over the oil file, in a country that suffers from confusion in the application of laws and constitutional steps.[/size]
[size=45]political consensus[/size]
[size=45]The Kurdish researcher in “Political and Security Affairs” Shahu al-Qardaghi sees the dimensions of the decision as “a political targeting of the Democratic Party (led by Massoud Barzani), which manages the region’s oil file, after entering into an alliance with the Sadrist movement in the face of other traditional Shiite parties,” and about the possibility of implementing it On the ground, he said, “The current Baghdad government is a caretaker government, and it is currently unlikely that any agreement or settlement will take place, and it will be postponed until after the formation of the new government, and if the Sadrist movement succeeds with its democratic allies and the sovereignty coalition to form the government, it is likely that it will not The decision is implemented in a country where political settlements have dominated constitutional or legal articles since the first parliamentary elections in 2005.[/size]
[size=45]The Kurdish forces questioned the “timing” of the decision’s issuance, and believed that it came based on “political pressures” exerted by forces in Baghdad in light of the obstacles facing the steps to form the federal government, especially since the decision was taken years later, according to two complaints dating back to 2012 and 2019.[/size]
[size=45]The head of the Al-Mawred Group for Strategic Studies, Najm Al-Qassab, agrees with Al-Qardaghi’s vision that solutions to the crisis are “subject to the phenomenon of political consensus, especially between the leaders in Erbil and Baghdad,” adding that “decisions and everything related to budgets will not find the light without harmony or understanding between the forces, and we have experiences. With many previous decisions that remained ink on paper because the Kurds were not convinced of them, this dispute needs understanding and work to restore confidence between the two governments.”[/size]
[size=45]Variation in interpretations[/size]
[size=45]The prominent member of the National Union, Tariq Gohar, affirmed for his part that “there is no choice but to negotiate according to the constitutional foundations and determine the rights and duties of each party,” noting that “the most important obstacle lies in the absence of an oil and gas law to regulate the relationship between the regions and governorates with The federal government, as stated in Article 112 of the Constitution, the first paragraph, which stipulates the two parties’ participation in the management of oil and gas, and this needs to be regulated by law, and the government, parliament, and federalists bear the responsibility for not enacting the law after all the years that have passed.”[/size]
[size=45]According to the advisor to the regional president, Dilshad Shehab, “the decision does not have any retroactive effect, and it is enforceable and binding, and the region respects Iraqi institutions.” Accordingly, the region sees the necessity of restructuring it according to a new law,” explaining that “the oil and gas law in the region is still in force, but the dialogue will continue with Baghdad to find solutions, as the issue is both political and economic.”[/size]
[size=45]Jawhar explains that "the two governments have already agreed on a formula that grants Erbil the authority to manage its oil file in accordance with the oil law that is legislated in the region, in the event that the federal law was not enacted in 2007." Oil does not fall within the exclusive powers according to Article 110 of the Constitution, and I left it up to the relationship between the two parties to be regulated by a law that takes into account their rights, without which it is impossible to resolve disputes.[/size]
[size=45]It is expected that the two governments will enter into meetings, after the Ministry of Oil announced the formation of a six-person committee by the National Oil Company “SOMO” commissioned by the Federal Council of Ministers based on the decision of the Federal Court, “to exercise its duties on all petroleum operations, except for oil contracts, provided that it proceeds from The date on which the order was issued is February 25, 2022.”[/size]
[size=45]crisis deportation[/size]
[size=45]The decision raised questions about the nature of Baghdad’s options to implement the decision, and the possibility of it resorting to the use of force similar to the punitive measures it had taken against the region in response to its participation in a referendum for secession in 2007.[/size]
[size=45]Al-Qardaghi believes that “the decision-makers in the region seem to not be submissive and indifferent to the consequences, relying on the political differences in Baghdad on the grounds that the decision is more political than constitutional at this particular time, and it is also unlikely that Baghdad will resort to imposing sanctions on the region at a time.” The country is going through a political stalemate due to disagreements over the election of the President of the Republic and after him the Prime Minister.”[/size]
[size=45]Researcher Najm al-Qassab also expects that "Baghdad does not turn to the option of escalation with Erbil, which has a government, parliament and power, in addition to enjoying regional and international relations, which makes it able not to abide by Baghdad's decisions, and the latter also does not want to lose the region by brandishing it again the secession card," pointing out The current prime minister, Mustafa Al-Kazemi, and even his predecessor, Mr. Adel Abdul-Mahdi, did not practice the method of escalation with the Kurds, unlike the governments of Nuri al-Maliki and Haider al-Abadi, which at that time lost a lot of influence and political support. He expected that “understandings and concessions will be obtained from the two parties as soon as the new government is formed, at least in order to reach a temporary solution, and if the oil and gas law is not legislated, we will face one crisis after another.”[/size]
[size=45]Available solutions[/size]
[size=45]Jawhar also ruled out Baghdad's resorting to the option of force, saying that "the crisis is solvable, and the court's decision needs to be reconsidered in light of the observations by jurists and the constitution on the unfairness inflicted on the region's right with regard to partnership in managing the file." He added, "Erbil may have issued oil from Without sending revenues to the federal treasury, but on the other hand, Baghdad, and since 2014, the region’s share of the federal budget has not been sent, but rather was subject to deductions in addition to reducing it from 17 to about 12 percent.[/size]
[size=45]Weaknesses and strengths[/size]
[size=45]Some visions state that the mechanism for implementing the decision is subject to the equation of power elements for each of the two governments, and about the nature of these elements, Al-Qardaghi believes that “many Kurdish forces are not familiar with the oil file in the region, which is generally ambiguous, and the Erbil government must seek more transparency in the region.” This sector by combating corruption and the waste that is tainted by it.” He added that “the decision may weaken the position of the regional government in one way or another, especially the ruling parties accused by the Kurdish opposition forces of corruption through their monopoly on the file and revenues in general, while the region suffers from a suffocating economic crisis in the forefront. The government’s inability to pay the salaries of employees.”[/size]
[size=45]On the other hand, Jawhar believes that “Baghdad needs a strong government that is not subject to the dictates of conflicting political forces, as whenever Erbil agrees with Baghdad on a formula that the latter retreats from its commitments under political pressure, Erbil may also repudiate some agreements, but the reason was often the weakness of the decision with the The Baghdad government, in general, today we need a temporary consensual formula until the federal oil and gas law is legislated.” He added that “disagreements between powers in general produce weak governments, and we have to admit that the governments of Erbil and Baghdad both suffer from the same problem, which has been negatively reflected on the strategy related to the oil file.” However, we must not forget that the prevailing mentality of the political elite in Baghdad still deals with the mentality of the old central system.[/size]
[size=45]In conjunction with the preparation of this report, the Prime Minister of Kurdistan, Masrour Barzani, announced during a press conference on Thursday morning, March 3, his readiness to “dialogue with Baghdad to reach a radical solution based on the constitution,” and explained that “the constitution granted powers to the regions, and we will never give up on These rights, the Federal Court’s decision is not in the interest of all Iraqis and not only the region.” He called on the Federal Parliament to “reconstitute the Federal Court in accordance with Article 92 of the Constitution, the formation of the Federal Service Council, and the application of Article 140 of the Constitution (concerning the fate of areas in dispute).”[/size]
[size=45]He directed his speech to the Iraqis, saying, "We are your brothers and we are proud of that, and we are part of federal Iraq, but there are those who are working to suspend their failure on the region and the federal government has not been able to this day to provide you with basic services, and I assure you that we have not taken away anyone's right, but we will not accept our right to be taken away." Uhud.” He continued, “Today, there are about a million citizens from the central and southern regions in the region, and the doors of Kurdistan will remain open to you, because it has always been a haven for the afflicted,” as he described it, noting that “the region is subjected to very great pressures, but we are optimistic about overcoming it.”[/size]
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