[size=30]Report: A benefit offset by a loss for Iraq if Iran and America reach an agreement
[ltr]2023.06.18 - 13:53[/ltr]
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[ltr]2023.06.18 - 13:53[/ltr]
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Baghdad - people
Analyzes are conflicting about the effects of a new nuclear agreement between Washington and Tehran that is being talked about strongly these days, as optimistic opinions go to the belief that the agreement would end the problem of Iraq paying financial dues to Iran, especially in the field of energy, while other economists believe that it is one of the negative effects What is expected after the agreement is a decrease in oil prices, which may exacerbate the problem of the deficit in the Iraqi budget.
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A few days ago, US State Department spokesman Matthew Miller confirmed, in a press briefing published on the ministry's website, that Iraq's transfer of nearly $3 billion to Tehran is conditional.
He added that Iran "can access its funds deposited in Iraq's accounts only for humanitarian and other non-sanctioned transactions."
Last week, one of the prime minister's advisors announced that the electricity system in Iraq would soon improve after paying gas dues to Iran.
Counselor Diaa al-Nasseri said in a tweet on Twitter, "The volume of Iranian funds that we released during the Sudanese government amounted to 1.5 billion euros, in addition to one billion euros being released."
He added, "Citizens will witness a gradual improvement in electricity, in conjunction with Iraq's plans to invest in clean energy and benefit from Iraqi gas."
Before that, the head of the Iranian-Iraqi Joint Chamber of Commerce, Yahya Al-Ishaq, had announced, "Part of Iran's debts incurred by Iraq were liberated, and part of it was allocated to the needs of Iranian pilgrims, and another part of it was paid for the supply of basic commodities."
A spokesman for the Iraqi Foreign Ministry, Ahmed Al-Sahhaf, said in a statement a few days ago, "The foreign minister led a meaningful dialogue with his American counterpart during the international conference to combat terrorism held in Riyadh, which led to substantial arrangements regarding financial dues between Iraq and Iran."
At the end of last May, the "Iran International" website quoted a source he described as "the insider", that Iranian funds frozen in Iraqi banks amounted to 10 billion dollars or more.
Iraq imports gas from Iran to operate electricity at a value of $11 billion annually, according to Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein.
These developments took place during the Iraqis' preoccupation with the issue of the budget, and Munqith Dagher confirms that within the new agreement: "It is the state militias' stopping the escalation against America."
In a related context, Nabil Al-Marsoumi, an economics professor in Basra, believes that the US understanding with Iran may lower oil prices.
Al-Marsoumi said in a post on Facebook: "Any US-Iranian agreement would lead to an increase in Iranian oil production and exports between half a million and one million barrels per day, which would result in a drop in global oil prices and would negatively affect oil revenues in OPEC countries, including Iraq." .
And members of the Parliamentary Finance Committee warned earlier of the possibility of adding another deficit between 6 to 9 billion to the budget (I passed a deficit of 64 trillion dinars) in the event that the price of a barrel of oil became 70 dollars, while it is now sold for 75.
Concern about the fluctuation of oil prices appears behind the plan to invest gas in Iraq, and to find an alternative in exchange for Iranian gas, relying on Qatar, whose Emir Tamim bin Hamad visited Baghdad a few days ago, in perhaps the fastest visit of an Arab leader to Iraq, which lasted only 3 hours.
The United States welcomed bin Hamad's visit to Iraq, and "framework" leaders who were known for their criticism of Qatar were silent about the recent visit.
Those leaders and faction leaders began, in recent months, to back down from their previous positions on Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states, and they have greatly reduced their attacks on the United States.
Returning to the US-Iranian understanding, Nabil Al-Marsoumi points out that "the abolition of restrictions on bank transfers in dollars to Iran will lead to a significant rise in the exchange rate of the dinar against the dollar, and the parallel exchange rate will come very close to the official rate."
And there is still about 20 points (number) a difference between the exchange rate of the dollar from the central bank and the stock exchanges, despite the government's measures.
"Tamim Hassan _ Al-Mada"
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