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A government advisor reduces the risks of a budget deficit
Economical 05/09/2024
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Baghdad: Haider Falih Al-Rubaie,
the financial advisor to the Prime Minister, Dr. Mazhar Muhammad Salih, reduced the risks and effects of the deficit on the general budget for the current year, the schedules of which will hopefully reach the House of Representatives soon for discussion, stressing that the deficit rates are still in the safe space for the national economy due to the increase. Oil prices rose by 15 percent above the official price approved in the “tripartite” budget, indicating that this means that “automatic financing of the deficit has become achieved,” indicating at the same time that starting to export a specific type of natural gas to global markets will provide the budget with additional revenues, and To reduce the planned deficit gap.
The Ministry of Oil announced at the end of last week that the Basra Gas Company had exported the first shipment of “semi-refrigerated” propane gas, in a quantity amounting to more than 10,700 tons, indicating that it “is considered one of the large shipments that are marketed and loaded on the back of specialized tankers,” while specialists believe that these The step is very important and will maximize the country's revenues, in addition to its necessity in meeting internal needs.
Earlier, the Parliamentary Finance Committee, while hosting Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Planning, Muhammad Tamim, revealed that the total budget for the current year 2024, indicating that it will amount to about 228 trillion dinars, while Tamim indicated that “the government committee responsible for reviewing and auditing that The tables work to reduce the deficit of 80 trillion dinars “because it is considered a large deficit.” Despite the high estimated figure for the deficit in the current year’s budget, Counselor Saleh believes during his talk to “Al-Sabah” that “Iraq’s federal budgets throughout the past two decades were built on a deficit.” A precautionary default to confront oil market fluctuations, as the value of the planned or hypothetical deficit is mostly similar to the investment expenditure allocations, because operational expenditures are of a ruling nature, in which salaries, wages, pensions, and social care constitute approximately 75 percent of operating expenditure, indicating that operating expenditure itself also touches 75 percent of “Total total spending.”
Based on the above, Saleh pointed out that “financing the actual deficit in the annual budgets at levels exceeding the accepted standard deficit ratio of 3 percent of the country’s gross domestic product came in exceptional years during which there were sharp declines in oil prices, which was reflected in Directly on budget revenues, 92 percent of which still depend on revenues from exports of crude oil. According to the government advisor, “the two periods in which the actual deficit increased the most (the day in which internal and external borrowings exceeded the accepted standard rate of 3 percent of GDP) were during the dual (financial and security) crisis between the years 2014-2017 due to fighting the terrorist ISIS and liberating our country.” From his desecration, as well as in the year 2020 during the financial crisis during the Corona period.
The Prime Minister’s advisor believes that the oil market prices, which are still rising today at rates exceeding the price of a barrel of oil approved in the Federal (Tripartite) General Budget Law No. 13 of 2023, amounting to $70 per barrel of exported crude oil, is a positive indicator that confirms the increase in oil prices above the number. The budget rate is 15 percent, which means that automatic financing of the deficit has been achieved.
Counselor Saleh also confirms that “the added export capabilities in the oil sector today, especially by exporting a specific type of natural gas to global markets, must provide the budget with additional revenues in a way that inevitably reduces the planned deficit gap,” indicating at the same time that if There were no commitments of development loans provided by various European and international funds and banks that were not withdrawn and were being withdrawn for the purposes of ongoing or new investment projects for the purposes of meeting investment expenditures, in addition to some internal borrowings. They certainly did not exceed the standard acceptable percentage for borrowing of 3 percent of the gross domestic product or even close. Therefore, in this case, it does not mean that the budget is in a state of worrying deficit as long as the financing comes within the safe borrowing range of carrying the debt capacity of 3 percent.
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