Iraq's revenues are 18% less than expected in the budget

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[size=52]Iraq's revenues are 18% less than expected in the budget[/size]

[size=45]There are only a few months left until the end of the fiscal year for the current year, and with it the 2023 budget will end, which has turned into a bulletin board from which what the government of Muhammad Shia al-Sudani had planned has not been achieved, according to many, especially since it was described as “the unprecedented and largest budget in the history of the Iraqi state.” .[/size]
[size=45]Neither the volume of spending nor revenues, especially non-oil revenues, has achieved anything so far, and while specialists believe that the failure to achieve spending could be a justification for delaying the approval and implementation of the budget, the failure to achieve the expected revenues indicates a “serious deficiency” in government estimates. Last June 12, a vote was taken on Iraq’s budget, which was described as “historic,” as its size amounted to approximately 199 trillion dinars, a budget equivalent to nearly twice the 2021 budget, which at the time amounted to more than 101 trillion dinars, and if calculated in dollars, it is equivalent to twice the 2021 budget. By 120%, following the devaluation of the dollar in 2023.[/size]
[size=45]While 198.9 trillion dinars are supposed to be spent during the current year, that is, 16.5 trillion dinars per month, which makes spending within 7 months should reach more than 116 trillion dinars.[/size]
[size=45]However, the Iraqi government's accounts, up to last July, show that it reached a total of 54.7 trillion dinars in 7 months, meaning that actual spending amounted to only 47% of the planned spending in the budget.[/size]
[size=45]Economic affairs researcher Salam Karim believes that the failure to achieve spending as planned and the actual lack of conformity with what is expected in the budget “is a justification for the fact that voting on the budget and publishing its implementation instructions was delayed, as the budget was voted on in June and the implementation instructions were published at the beginning of “August.”[/size]
[size=45]Karim says, “The failure to achieve the expected and planned spending, although it will achieve a surplus in funds and eliminate the deficit in a relative way, will, at the same time, delay plans, make many sectors and projects late, and affect the reality of the progress and implementation of the government program.” With regard to revenues, The 2023 budget expected total revenues of 134.5 trillion dinars, which means more than 11.2 trillion dinars per month, meaning that in 7 months the revenues generated should reach 78.4 trillion Iraqi dinars. But the actual revenues achieved during the first seven months of the current year amounted to only 65.1 trillion dinars, that is, 18% less than the expected and planned revenues in the budget.[/size]
[size=45]Referring to the 2023 budget, the oil revenues expected to be achieved are 117.2 trillion, and non-oil revenues are 17.3 trillion, which means that oil revenues within 7 months should be more than 68.3 trillion dinars, but what was actually achieved amounted to only 62.2 trillion dinars.[/size]
[size=45]As for the non-oil revenues expected in the budget, they should reach more than 10 trillion dinars within 7 months, but what was actually achieved amounted to only 2.9 trillion dinars, as the Ministry of Finance’s accounts show until July.[/size]
[size=45]Perhaps the failure to achieve spending as planned in the budget is somewhat justified due to the delay in approving the budget as well as the delay in publishing its instructions, but the failure to achieve the expected revenues despite the fact that actual oil prices continue to be greater than the number specified and expected in the budget, amounting to $70 per barrel, gives an indication of the danger of not achieving The accuracy of government forecasts,” according to researcher Salam Karim.[/size]
[size=45]The real danger - and Karim said - is that “unrealised spending due to the budget delay will be applied retroactively, but revenue collection is a fait accompli and will not be applied retroactively, which may deepen the budget deficit.”[/size]
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