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In fact, I think we should prep for the likelihood that these two will ultimately meet in the 1st round this year. That makes this game then the 2 against the Ducks in late March and early April huge tests. This is the time the team needs to set the tone. The Oilers do not have a historically good track record against the Ducks (or any team) so this year it’s paramount to start letting the good teams know things are different.
The season series is split between the Ducks and the Oilers, each getting a win at home. Both clubs are 7-2-1 in their last 10 games and this should be some good hockey. While Oiler fans are used to their team getting thrown into the woodchipper against the top teams in the West, it is now time for expectations to change. The Oilers shouldn’t just be happy to be near the Ducks in the standings. Now is about trying to get home ice in the playoffs. Now is about setting the tone for the weeks to come.
Milan Lucic has woken up. Jordan Eberle is waking up. Connor McDavid leads the NHL in scoring and number-of-times-he-made-you-say-oh-my-god. Patrick Maroon is facing his former club and is 1 goal back on the NHL leader in 5v5 goal scoring. Even the 4th line is chipping in offense right now. This is a team that has a lot of good going for it right now.
The Oilers are 7th in the NHL in 5v5 Fenwick For percentage. They are 9th in Shots For percentage and 11th in Shot Attempt percentage. This is a good team by eye, number, and standings. The reality we have to prepare for is that the window for the Oilers to win has started to open right now. This team shouldn’t be happy to be there. They should be going for it. Unleash Hell!
The Ducks 5v5 have lower percentages in every major category than the Oilers, but they are more efficient on special teams. If the Oilers can keep this game out of the hands of the Refs then they are benefitting. Ducks are 8th on the PP and 9th on the PK. If Edmonton loses control and crosses the line while trying to assert themselves tonight then this can get out of hand quickly.
LINEUP
Maroon McDavid Draisaitl
Pouliot RNH Eberle
Lucic Caggiula Slepyshev
Hendricks Letestu Kassian
Klefbom Larsson
Sekera Russell
Davidson Benning
Talbot
Brossoit
OILERS KEYS TO THE GAME
1) Divin Ryan. When the Ducks signed Ryan Kesler to that ridiculous contract I immediately called it a poison pill. I still think it is, but he is poised to have his best season as a Duck. Today he has 18 goals and 39 points to lead their club. Against the Oilers this year he also has 2 goals in 2 games and has averaged 22 minutes a night. So Edmonton, and probably Connor McDavid, should be prepared to see this guy a lot tonight. Yeah, he’s a flopping embarrassment to the tough-guy persona that hockey has cultivated for almost 100 years, but he’s also pretty good and having a great year.
2) Eberle Back. Jordan Eberle picked a good time of year to start showing up again. His previous run was unsustainably low (he’s a career 13.6% shooter who was below 8%), but these kinds of lows can last longer than we want them to. He broke out for 4 points against the Flames and has 6 in his last 4 games. He needed a big game, away from McDavid, more than anyone else. Now all we need is for his linemate, Pouliot, to score a couple goals. Jordan Eberle is a huge part of a successful Oiler team, especially if he’s playing on the 2nd line. His offensive production is vital to the club if it wants to be more than the McDavid show.
3) Top Line Dips. These past 5 or 6 games have been productive for Connor McDavid but they’ve also been a part of his least successful in terms of possession. As long as he’s getting points there will be a massive segment of fans who wont care about this, but he’s been below 50% in shot attempts for a couple weeks almost. When that trio of McDavid, Maroon, and Draisaitl were first put together they stepped on the necks of the opposition. McDavid might be an unstoppable force, but Draisaitl and Maroon will be hard pressed to keep up their scoring if they aren’t spending more time in the OZ. These things Ebb and Flow, right now the top line is in an Ebb. If they re-establish puck dominance then the Oilers will be once again a very tough team to handle.
Puck drops tonight at 8PM Mountain Time on Sportsnet West. Game On!
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