Tyler Motte and volume shooting
August 9, 2017, 1:41 PM ET [2 Comments]
Paul Berthelot
Columbus Blue Jackets Blogger • RSS • Archive • CONTACT
The trade will always be referred to as the Brandon Saad-Artemi Panarin trade, but the Anton Forsberg-Tyler Motte part of that deal should not be forgotten. Jarmo Kekalainen has mentioned that he felt Motte was a significant part of that trade. The Jackets have some spots up for grabs in the bottom six and Motte among a few other players will be given strong consideration for that spot, so what can we expect from Motte this season?
What drew the Jackets to Motte, was his time at Michigan where he was a teammate for two seasons with Zach Werenski. Motte arrived at Michigan a season before Werenski and had a fine but unspectacular season. He scored nine goals, added nine assists in 34 games, per College Hockey Inc. He had a much better sophomore season again scoring nine goals, but added 22 assists for 31 points in 35 games. Finally his last season at Michigan he broke out and was unbelievable finishing fourth in the NCAA with 56 points. His line with Kyle Connor and JT Compher were the best line in the league that season with Connor and Compher finishing 1-2 in the scoring race.
Motte has always had a defensive reputation and that defensive reliability was likely why he started on that line with Compher and Connor, but make no mistake Motte was not there to play it safe. He was there to shoot the puck, and he shot it a lot. Motte scored 32 goals that season, second in the league behind Connor’s 35. Motte edged out Connor 165-148 in shots and 4.34 a game to Connor’s 3.89. Those numbers for Motte placed him fourth and eighth in the league respectively. Motte’s numbers were certainly inflated by playing alongside those two great players, but what’s encouraging is that this is not the first time Motte has put up big shot numbers.
In 2014-15, Motte’s second season at Michigan he put up 102 shots and 2.91 shots per game, both of which ranked third on his team behind Dylan Larkin and Zach Hyman. In 2013-14 as a freshman he had 94 shots and 2.78 per game, again ranking third on his team. Motte only scored nine goals in each of those seasons, as his shooting percentage was a mere 9.6% in 13-14 and 8.8% in 14-15. If we go back even further to Motte’s time in the USHL playing for the USNTDP, we again see a player who shot a lot but didn’t score.
In Motte’s draft season of 2012-13, he played 26 games against USHL opponents, putting up 11 goals and 17 points, per USHL.com. He had 91 shots, good for 3.5 a game. The 91 shots tied for second on his team with Larkin and were behind Jack Eichel’s 123. The 3.5 per game were third behind Eichel and Michal McCarron. Those three were all first round picks so that is good company to be keeping. As a 16 year old in the USHL Motte was even better, he led his team with 125 shots and 3.47 a game.
Looking at Motte’s first season in professional hockey the boxcar numbers are unimpressive. Seven points in 33 NHL games and 16 points in 43 AHL games is nothing to write home about, but as we dig a little deeper you can see that Motte is still a big time shot producer.
According to Prospect Stats, Motte put up 2.95 shots per game in all situations at the AHL level, which ranked 23rd among forwards who played in at least 20 games. If we account for the fact that Motte was an AHL rookie and just look at players similar aged to him, Motte really stands out. Among players under the age of 22, Motte’s 2.95 shots per game were tied for fourth with Nick Baptiste and just behind Jake Guentzel and Timo Meier who tied for second with 2.97. Kevin Fiala led the way with 3.45. Just behind Motte are players like Kyle Connor, Jake DeBrusk, Oliver Bjorkstrand, Kasperi Kapanen and Jesse Puljujarvi. This is a group of top prospects and when looking at shots, Motte more than holds his own.
What has kept Motte from being a top prospect has been his point production. He has been unable to turn all these shots into goals. Motte’s point totals were by far the lowest of that group and a big reason for that was he shot just 7.87%. He scored 10 goals but considering the volume of shots it should have been much more. Motte’s SH% placed him 359th out of 465 forwards in the league and 96th out of 117 for those under 22. The league average for forwards was about 11%, if we gave Motte that he would have scored an extra four goals. If he had a 14% mark, which many of the top shot producers had, he would have scored about 18 goals, which would have been quite good and put him in the upper echelon for players his age.
Motte started the season in the NHL with the Blackhawks and was with the team for their first 40 games. Motte got into 33 of those games and while he started in the top six, he quickly found himself in a depth role. Despite that, Motte was still his usual self, putting up plenty of shots. He averaged 1.39 shots per game at 5 on 5, per Natural Stat Trick in his time in the NHL which placed him eighth among the Blackhawks over that 40 game span. That is not as impressive as we have seen from Motte, if we account for him limited ice-time and look at per 60 numbers, Motte stands out. Motte had a shots/60 rate of 8.36 which was third on the Hawks behind Ryan Hartman and Jordan Tootoo, and much more in line with Motte’s career.
Looking at Motte’s advanced numbers, we can really hone in on why he didn’t stick in the NHL and why he’s had such issues scoring goals. He had good shot attempt numbers with an individual Corsi For/60 of 13.45, placing him sixth on the team. However, his strong individual numbers did not result in strong on-ice numbers. When Motte was on the ice he had a Corsi For/60 of 46.36, the lowest on the Hawks. His defensive prowess did not translate as he had a 61.08 Corsi Against/60, the third highest. That left Motte with a 43.15 CF% the second worst on Chicago.
For all the shots Motte was taking he took very few from scoring chance areas. Here’s a quick snapshot of some of Mottes on-ice scoring chance numbers and where he ranked on the team (out of 23).
Right here it’s easy to see why Motte’s didn’t stick in the NHL. I would guess this has been a problem throughout his hockey career and why his shooting percentages have been so low. Motte, like many players is at his best when he gets to the front of the net. Take look at his highlights from last season. All the goals he scores are right in tight on the goalie.
For Motte to have success at the NHL he needs to do a better job at getting shots in the scoring chance area. Motte’s shot production suggests he should be a top prospect, but his inability to get into that scoring chance area consistently has held him back. His shooting percentage was been below average, and usually you expect that to rebound, but Motte has had a low shooting percentage for most of his hockey career. John Tortorella and the Blue Jackets have stressed the importance of scoring chances and hopefully that will be engrained in Motte. As he showed at Michigan it can take him some time to get adjusted to a new league, but once he figures it out, watch out. He can be a big time offensive player. The Blue Jackets certainly agree, calling Motte a significant piece of the trade. If he can turn all his shots into goals, he will be much more than just an afterthought in the Saad-Panarin trade.
You can follow me on Twitter @PaulBerthelot
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