[rtl]Dangerous report: a silent war between the two ruling Kurdish parties in northern Iraq[/rtl]
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[rtl]Baghdad-Iraq today:
With the increasing defections between the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan and the Kurdistan Democratic Party over a number of issues, the Kurdistan region will lose its economic and political stability, according to an analysis published by a Kurdish researcher in the United States of America.
An analysis published by Nawras Jaf of Old Dominion University in The Washington Institute indicates that tensions between the KDP and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan have deepened and become more serious. Recently, these tensions have prompted KRG Union Party members, including Deputy Prime Minister Qubad Talabani, to boycott the KRG's weekly meetings.
The following is a presentation of the most important paragraphs of the analysis:
According to a statement issued by Pavel Talabani, President of the Patriotic Union, the dispute stems from various complaints. Several weeks ago, Pavel said, "The Kurdistan Regional Government punishes the Sulaymaniyah region and its administration, does not pay citizens' salaries, and will not even allow the deputy prime minister to do what his job requires."
Members of the Democratic Party, including Prime Minister Masrour Barzani, have not yet made any constructive statement regarding the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan's concerns and criticisms directed at it, but Hemin Hawrami of the Parti leadership stated, "The government cannot carry out its duties in the area under the jurisdiction of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, no one has information about the revenues of this region.”
Tensions also increased following the assassination in October of Hooker Jaf, an officer in the Kurdistan Security Council who this year switched allegiance from the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan to the KDP. The PUK strongly denied its involvement in the assassination and requested a thorough investigation into the incident, but also urged the KRG not to publish the names of the perpetrators involved. The Barzani-led administration and the Kurdistan Security Council publish the names and confessions of the perpetrators anyway, further exacerbating the dispute.
Union and democracy are taking two different directions, increasingly contradictory, and no one knows the final destination of this small region.Possibilities include strengthening one government, forming two, boycotting or returning to government, or de-escalating or escalating tensions.
These problems have raised enormous fears among the residents of the Kurdistan region, as they realize that any conflict between the two main parties may bring back nostalgia for the past that witnessed a civil war, the emergence of financial crises and the fragmentation of the country.
The federation continues to complain that the Democrat punishes Sulaymaniyah financially. The controversy centers around severe budget cuts by the regional government, which have left areas under federal control, such as Sulaymaniyah, unable even to pay the salaries of government employees and security forces.
These financial problems are also attributed to structural problems. The Kurdistan region of Iraq depends mainly on a number of income-generating resources, the most important of which is oil, which is distributed among the areas under the control of the two parties. Although most of this oil is located in areas under the control of the democrat, its quality is very low, and it must be blended with oil from the areas under the control of the federation in order to be marketable.
In the PUK region, natural gas production looks promising in the future.
The disputes between the central government in Baghdad and the regional government are still pending, and the decision of the Iraqi Federal Court, which described the entire oil exploration process in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq as illegal, constituted a major obstacle between the Kurdistan Regional Government in the oil sector.
These changing resource dynamics have become one of the most prominent points of contention between the two parties, especially in terms of plans related to exporting natural gas from the region abroad. The federation strongly objects to this step, and has prevented it from happening, while the democrat sees it as a way to allow the region to play a prominent role at the international level.
Disagreements over oil and gas have led to more prominent financial disputes.According to a prior understanding, the region's budget and income is divided between the two regions: 57% for the Democratic (yellow) region and 43% for the Union (green) region. But the two sides have since adopted increasingly divergent views on how the region's income should be allocated. From the perspective of Barzani and his party, the regional government must pay the salaries of the governorates and determine their budgets based on their respective incomes. In exchange for this vision, Talabani and his party propose that the Kurdistan Regional Government collect all revenues from the region and then distribute it equitably to all regions as needed.
Union leaders claim that the income of the province of Sulaymaniyah, between oil revenues, taxes, and the income of two international border crossings, is still not sufficient to cover the basic needs of the province's budget and salaries. The lack of funds caused a wage crisis in the Sulaymaniyah regions such as Halabja, Garmian and Rabarin, which led to a delay in the distribution of salaries.
A unified Kurdistan or a green area against a yellow area?
The tense relationship that binds the two ruling parties in Kurdistan today results from the 60-year conflict that institutionalized the division between these two parties with a historical, ideological, geographical, and even linguistic division over decades.
Although the two sides signed a strategic agreement in 2003, putting a nominal end to the dispute, a cold war ensued between them and very little progress was made in reaching a meaningful solution. Today, Masrour Barzani and Qubad Talabani are the inheritors of this conflict, and the borders between the green zone and the yellow zone in Kurdistan are becoming more entrenched and restricted, both literally and figuratively.
Despite the multiple attempts by parties and other political entities to facilitate the easing of tensions between the two Kurdish parties, the conflict today has become more intense and protracted than ever before, and the threat of the division of the Kurdistan region is more dangerous than ever. .
Uncertainty prevails about what the future holds for this region, but the current reality in which parties increasingly compete for their own interests rather than working together does not bode well for Kurdistan.[/rtl]
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