Highlighted the political risks that could shake global markets in 2019
Wall |
The withdrawal of political risks to the world's sky in 2018 amid uncertainties threatens to cast its shadow on global economic growth next year, which was followed by many warnings for its future.
Here is a look at the political flash points that could hinder growth and increase the pain of the global economy next year.
Expected controversy within the US Congress
The change of control in the House of Representatives after last November's election, which gives the Democrats the legislative power for the first time in eight years, complicates the political image of the United States in the next two years.
The Democrats' takeover of the House of Representatives could open the way for investigations into President Donald Trump's condemnation, presidential campaign and family work, although if charges go so far, Trump's final fate will lie with the Republican-dominated Senate.
Assuming a clash between Democrats and Republicans and the Trump administration, the United States is on the verge of a two-year stalemate, says Ulrich Lichtman, analyst at Commerzbank.
Thus, democratic laws will die from the House of Representatives in the Senate and Republican ideas will end from the Senate in the House of Representatives
So there may be no hope of additional tax cuts and increased spending on infrastructure, but the preparation for periodic spells of political drama and the closure of the government that has already begun and threatened Trump to lengthen, which would disrupt its basic functions and cast a shadow over the economy.
There will be a great challenge to lead both parties to pass bills to finance government and other operations. But while the disagreement within Congress is not necessarily bad for the economy, if no good legislation is passed, there will be nothing harmful.
But is the main political threat to the economy "psychologically to some extent." Will the rhetorical and legal wrangling between the parties in Congress and the Democratic Party and the Trump administration become so severe as to undermine the optimism of the country's business and consumers? "According to Giuseppe Tervesani, "He said.
If one thing Democrats and Republicans agree on is that China's rise poses a challenge to the entire United States, Trump may use this common ground in Congress to gain support in the upcoming presidential election by tackling Beijing and curbing its technological and commercial practices.
In addition, the US president faces a major challenge to win the support of citizens, while a recent poll by the Independent newspaper showed that 60 percent of Americans do not want Trump to be president in 2020.
Unusually in campaigning, Trump launched early in early 2017, raised funds from donations and launched two ad campaigns for the 2020 presidential race under the slogan "Save America."
Internal conflict in the European Union
The European Union enters in 2019 and its lobby is full of problems and political issues in the four largest economies within the bloc.
The British political scene over the UK's exit from the EU on the world stage was overshadowed by uncertainty as to how it would approach March 29.
The main point on the bricast is the British parliament's scheduled vote in mid-January. Its decision would determine the fate of the exit agreement after it was backed by the European Union, which decided to raise its hand and throw the ball at the British prime minister's court.
It is true that the concessions come at the last minute, but the unfavorable bricast deal will have a negative impact on the economy, which could be in the worst-case scenario, the UK economy shrank by 8% within months of the date of exit, according to the Bank of England.
In Rome, the populist government is struggling to get approval from the Italian House of Representatives on the draft budget before it puts 2018 after winning Senate support following an agreement with the European Commission after a months-long dispute.
Meanwhile, in Europe's largest economy, attention has shifted to Angela Merkel's successor, Anjrit Kramp Karinbauer, in the Christian Democratic Union party, especially on the issue of immigration, and how to cooperate with Merkel until her term ends in 2021 after she announced her intention to run again for the post.
Just a few weeks ago, the bloody protests in France, known as the "yellow jackets," which could lead to a decline in the economic growth of half according to the National Statistics Institute, with the recent measures taken by French President Emmanuel Marcon to appease the demonstrators. The French fiscal deficit is making it into a clash with European Union rules.
Elections determine the fate of emerging markets
Next year many emerging economies will see major elections, which may have far-reaching effects on their political position and the stability of their markets.
Among those who will go to the polls are countries led by Argentina, India, Indonesia, South Africa and Nigeria.
"The theory is very simple," said Anthony Peters, an independent analyst at Blocx. "Emerging market assets have already suffered severe losses, so the downside if things get worse is little. If things recover, they have the potential to return. Strengthen itself again ".
Despite statements by the US Treasury Department that it is ready to lift sanctions on one of Russia's largest companies, United Rosal, investors will be wary of Congressional moves if the investigation of Robert Mueller's Kremlin intervention in the 2016 US election confirms this, New sanctions, including restrictions on the circulation of debt or sovereign Russian banks.
But China remains the biggest issue in emerging markets because of its trade dispute with the United States. Chinese President Xi Jinping still defies Washington, telling some of the country's most powerful military and trade figures that Beijing will not bow to US trade and investment demands quickly, "He said.
The United States and China signed a three-month trade truce agreement to study how to end the trade dispute.
Source: Mubasher
Today at 5:22 am by Rocky
» Al-Sudani: The tourism sector will be a substitute resource for oil in the coming years
Today at 5:20 am by Rocky
» Finance confirms the Iraqi government's desire to benefit from the expertise of French companies
Today at 5:19 am by Rocky
» utube 5/4/24 MM&C Iraq Dinar- IQD Update - No Float of Exchange Rate - Budget -2024 - Schedules -
Yesterday at 6:10 pm by Rocky
» utube MM&C 5/7/24 Iraq Dinar- IQD Update - Regional Trade - A Progession of Reforms - A Global Bac
Yesterday at 6:09 pm by Rocky
» After a break of more than 9 years.. the resumption of a government trade meeting between Iraq and A
Yesterday at 9:06 am by Rocky
» A deputy in finance expects the Council of Ministers to approve the budget schedules in today’s sess
Yesterday at 9:02 am by Rocky
» A deputy resolves the controversy over the “transfer supplement” in two ministries
Yesterday at 9:01 am by Rocky
» Al-Halbousi’s “vacant” seat.. Will the coordination framework end the “Taqaddum” dream of an allianc
Yesterday at 8:59 am by Rocky
» The Federal Government issues a state order to stop the Commission’s work procedures regarding the K
Yesterday at 8:57 am by Rocky
» Including the freedom to choose the bank and withdraw the salary for “free”... “My Account” features
Yesterday at 8:55 am by Rocky
» The Central Bank sells more than $250 million during its daily auction
Yesterday at 8:51 am by Rocky
» Al-Sudani receives a delegation from the Union of Arab Banks
Yesterday at 8:44 am by Rocky
» Iraq and the United States of America hold trade meetings in Washington
Yesterday at 8:43 am by Rocky
» In pictures... The activities of the Union of Arab Banks conference in Baghdad, “Day Two”
Yesterday at 8:42 am by Rocky
» The Director General of Ports announces the completion of berths (3) and (4) in Al-Faw Grand Port
Yesterday at 8:40 am by Rocky
» The Council of Ministers holds its regular session headed by Al-Sudani
Yesterday at 8:38 am by Rocky
» Parliament publishes the agenda of its session for next Thursday
Yesterday at 8:37 am by Rocky
» A government measure to reduce "money laundering" using the buying and selling of real estate in Ira
Yesterday at 8:35 am by Rocky
» Iraq proposes establishing a specialized council to combat corruption in Arab countries
Yesterday at 8:32 am by Rocky
» Al-Mawarid intends to establish infrastructure and investment projects for the water sector in Iraq
Yesterday at 8:30 am by Rocky
» The Federal Court issues a decision regarding postponing the election of the Speaker of the House of
Yesterday at 8:28 am by Rocky
» A government meeting to discuss financing and implementation mechanisms for the Development Road Pro
Yesterday at 6:12 am by Rocky
» Al-Sudani: Iraqi banks are on the right track with financial transfers
Yesterday at 6:11 am by Rocky
» Al-Khazali: The Turkish side is still imposing its conditions on Iraq
Yesterday at 6:08 am by Rocky
» Rights: We refuse to amend the bylaws of Parliament under political influence and desires
Yesterday at 6:07 am by Rocky
» Nechirvan Barzani: We want to address all problems with Iran and begin a new phase of relations
Yesterday at 6:05 am by Rocky
» Today, Iraq and Iran signed the minutes of a joint meeting related to trade
Yesterday at 6:03 am by Rocky
» KPMG International begins auditing the revenues of telephone companies operating in Iraq
Yesterday at 6:02 am by Rocky
» Oil: The seventh batch of equipment for the gas manufacturing project in the Nasiriyah and Gharraf f
Yesterday at 6:01 am by Rocky
» Al-Sudani assures the French ambassador of Iraq’s openness to “fruitful” partnerships
Yesterday at 6:00 am by Rocky
» Government move to install gold screening devices at 4 airports
Yesterday at 5:59 am by Rocky
» Sudanese Advisor: The oil sector is witnessing a rapid renaissance
Yesterday at 5:58 am by Rocky
» Opening offices specialized in employing people with disabilities
Yesterday at 5:57 am by Rocky
» Infrastructure and investment projects for the water sector in Iraq
Yesterday at 5:56 am by Rocky
» Adopting the electronic system in the next census
Yesterday at 5:55 am by Rocky
» Al-Sudani chairs the first meeting to restructure the government apparatus
Yesterday at 5:54 am by Rocky
» Business Council: Efforts to open a branch of the Chinese Bank in Iraq
Yesterday at 5:53 am by Rocky
» Iraqi diplomacy is balanced openness
Yesterday at 5:52 am by Rocky
» The head of the Integrity Commission told Al-Sabah: We are the people’s eyes on the government and s
Yesterday at 5:51 am by Rocky
» Baghdad Provincial Council: The capital is facing a new urban and service phase
Yesterday at 5:49 am by Rocky
» Customs, security and economic aspects
Yesterday at 5:48 am by Rocky
» Central Governor: We face “increasing challenges” in complying with international laws
Yesterday at 5:48 am by Rocky
» Payment of end-of-service benefits to employees referred to retirement for the month of May
Yesterday at 5:46 am by Rocky
» Billions “evaporated”.. What is the truth about closing the “theft of the century” file in Diyala?
Yesterday at 5:45 am by Rocky
» The Minister of Labor approves the extinguishment of debts owed by transgressors from the families o
Yesterday at 5:43 am by Rocky
» How did Washington comment on Nechirvan Barzani's visit to Tehran?
Yesterday at 5:42 am by Rocky
» The honeymoon is over and the salary crisis continues. Baghdad and Erbil exchange accusations, but s
Yesterday at 5:41 am by Rocky
» Why has Iraq not submitted a file to stop burning gas over the past years?
Yesterday at 5:39 am by Rocky
» A slight increase in the exchange rate...more than 146 thousand per 100 dollars
Yesterday at 5:38 am by Rocky
» Do Iraq's debts pose a threat to the economy? Parliament answers
Yesterday at 5:37 am by Rocky
» Agriculture explains the mechanism of implementing the calendar program and its economic gains
Yesterday at 5:36 am by Rocky
» President Masoud Barzani meets an Iraqi parliamentary delegation
Yesterday at 5:34 am by Rocky
» Parliamentary criticism of the government’s delay in sending the budget schedules despite the approa
Yesterday at 5:33 am by Rocky
» A report reveals the existence of an undeclared “Iraqi-British” agreement regarding asylum seekers
Yesterday at 5:32 am by Rocky
» Alternative energy... advanced stages of the largest solar energy station in Iraq
Yesterday at 5:31 am by Rocky
» Its delay raised concerns... it is likely that the 2024 budget schedules will be approved today
Yesterday at 5:30 am by Rocky
» The industry reveals the reasons why Russian companies stopped reconstructing 7 factories in Anbar
Yesterday at 5:29 am by Rocky
» Billions evaporated.. What is the truth about closing the theft of the century file in Diyala?
Yesterday at 5:28 am by Rocky
» Nouri Al-Maliki to the Saudi Ambassador: Iraq is open to all countries of the world
Yesterday at 5:26 am by Rocky
» An Iraqi generation that “does not fear” America and Iran.. Nadim Al-Jabri explains his expectations
Yesterday at 5:25 am by Rocky
» After 9 years.. the third session of the Trade and Investment Framework Agreement between Iraq and A
Yesterday at 5:22 am by Rocky
» “These are our goals.” The Turkish President talks about his visit to Iraq last month
Yesterday at 5:21 am by Rocky
» Romanowski: The Iraqi judiciary is independent and the Federal Court seeks to consolidate democracy
Yesterday at 5:19 am by Rocky
» Deputy: The presidency of Parliament will remain vacant until the end of the current session
Yesterday at 5:17 am by Rocky
» Political: The Iraqi economy is threatened by American hegemony because of the coordination administ
Yesterday at 5:16 am by Rocky
» Politician: Salem Al-Issawi will not become Speaker of Parliament
Yesterday at 5:15 am by Rocky
» Planning reveals the mechanism for examining gold in local markets
Yesterday at 5:14 am by Rocky
» Including railway connectivity and water shares... Iraq and Iran are discussing a number of common i
Yesterday at 5:12 am by Rocky
» Oil is preparing to export gas oil after achieving self-sufficiency
Yesterday at 5:11 am by Rocky
» Trade is preparing to hold a number of specialized exhibitions in Baghdad and the provinces
Yesterday at 5:09 am by Rocky
» Erdogan: Our goal is to raise the volume of trade with Iraq to more than 20 billion dollars
Yesterday at 5:08 am by Rocky
» Al-Sudani confirms Iraq's openness to fruitful partnerships with French companies
Yesterday at 5:07 am by Rocky
» Determining the launch date for the activities of the 48th session of the Baghdad International Fair
Yesterday at 5:06 am by Rocky
» Al-Sudani receives a delegation from the Union of Arab Banks
Yesterday at 5:05 am by Rocky
» utube 5/3/24 MM&C Iraq Dinar Update - Expectation - Implementation - Activation - New Exchange Rat
Mon May 06, 2024 8:30 am by Rocky
» “Services” asks the Central Bank about billions of foreign banks in Iraq
Mon May 06, 2024 8:27 am by Rocky
» Central Bank: Iraqi banks still face challenges in complying with international laws and standards
Mon May 06, 2024 8:24 am by Rocky
» Parliamentary bloc: The Central Bank offers hard currency to “mafias” on a golden platter.. The Suda
Mon May 06, 2024 8:20 am by Rocky
» The Iraqi Central Auction witnesses a rise in foreign remittances to $267 million
Mon May 06, 2024 8:19 am by Rocky
» Wednesday.. The session to elect the President of the Iraqi Parliament is heading towards “Al-Issawi
Mon May 06, 2024 8:14 am by Rocky
» The Union of Arab Banks proposes 4 “important” points for Iraqi banks to meet compliance standards
Mon May 06, 2024 8:12 am by Rocky
» In the document... the Central Bank decides to return the “Al-Mal” Bank to work... in this case
Mon May 06, 2024 8:08 am by Rocky
» The Iraqi-American agreements and cooperation were the most prominent topics of Al-Araji and Romanow
Mon May 06, 2024 8:06 am by Rocky
» Al-Hakim meets a joint delegation of resolve and sovereignty and renews the call to hold a session t
Mon May 06, 2024 8:05 am by Rocky
» Nearly one billion dinars were recovered and 3 million liters of fuel intended for smuggling in Iraq
Mon May 06, 2024 8:03 am by Rocky
» Al-Sudani and the European Union ambassador discuss issues of economic partnerships, civil aviation,
Mon May 06, 2024 7:59 am by Rocky
» More than 950 million dinars... petroleum products announced their recovery
Mon May 06, 2024 7:57 am by Rocky
» Forming a committee to follow up on stopping the sale of the dollar to travelers
Mon May 06, 2024 7:54 am by Rocky
» The Minister of Justice visits Al-Muthanna Governorate to discuss mechanisms for developing judicial
Mon May 06, 2024 7:52 am by Rocky
» Agriculture: Farmers who were affected by the recent rains will be compensated
Mon May 06, 2024 7:51 am by Rocky
» Al-Rasheed issues a warning regarding applying for advances and loans
Mon May 06, 2024 7:49 am by Rocky
» Al-Rafidain announces the implementation of the comprehensive banking system in its main branch
Mon May 06, 2024 6:24 am by Rocky
» Al-Rasheed warns of offices and pages claiming to promote the Salaf
Mon May 06, 2024 6:22 am by Rocky
» Adviser to the Prime Minister: There are no conflicts in the route of the Baghdad Metro
Mon May 06, 2024 6:19 am by Rocky
» Al-Sudani: We are keen to develop the work of the TBI Bank and address the problems it faces
Mon May 06, 2024 6:18 am by Rocky
» Agriculture explains the mechanism of implementing the calendar program and its economic gains
Mon May 06, 2024 6:17 am by Rocky
» “The shocks have changed.” The Governor of the Central Bank explains the impact of the openness of I
Mon May 06, 2024 6:16 am by Rocky
» The President of the Association of Private Banks sends an “important” invitation to the Central Ban
Mon May 06, 2024 6:15 am by Rocky