An American report talks about three possible scenarios for Al-Sadr's response to forming the govern

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[size=52]An American report talks about three possible scenarios for Al-Sadr's response to forming the government[/size]

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[size=45]Baghdad today - translation[/size]
[size=45]The Iraqis woke up a few days ago to the sounds of 9 Katyusha rockets that fell on the Green Zone, prior to the Iraqi parliament session dedicated to electing the president of the republic.[/size]
[size=45]It does not seem that those rockets were an expression of joy over the breakthrough that took place a year after the last elections, at a time when the security forces cut off all roads leading to the Green Zone, but they failed to prevent the rockets from reaching the Green Zone and express a clear protest against the selection of Abdul Latif Rashid as the fourth president Republic since the overthrow of the previous regime in 2003.[/size]
[size=45]A report by the "Washington Institute for Near East Policy" website and its translation (Baghdad Today) said that "although the new Iraqi government has ended the year-long impasse, the way forward is still full of obstacles."[/size]
[size=45]He added: "The Sadrists' withdrawal from the House of Representatives gave way to other political forces, most of which are affiliated with the coordination framework, to become the largest force and proceed to form the government. Those political forces succeeded in reaching an agreement and choosing Rashid as President of the Republic. In turn, the new Prime Minister appointed Muhammad Shia al-Sudani, who is affiliated with al-Maliki, even though he resigned from al-Maliki's party some time ago. Thus, the political process in Iraq returned to its old track, despite Mr. Al-Sadr’s attempt to turn it into a path that rejects the principle of political consensus.”[/size]
[size=45]He continued: “Even after the President of the Republic was appointed and a candidate for prime minister was appointed, the big question revolves around the reactions of two main parties in the political equation, both of whom were opposed to the nomination of Mr. A wild idea in the minds of most Iraqis, especially young people, and it represents a success story they were not familiar with, achieved in 2019-2020, and it is still stuck in the memory and imagination of ordinary Iraqis and is feared by the leaders of the parties participating in power.[/size]
[size=45]He explained, "Although the number of those who came out to commemorate the third anniversary of October a few days ago was less than expected, there are serious calls and real possibilities for more people to come out on the 25th of this month. The choice of Al-Sudani during the Tishreen revolution represents a challenge to Tishreen's will. So, it remains to be seen whether these events will prompt young people in Baghdad and southern Iraq to protest further against the regime.”[/size]
[size=45]He said: “As for Al-Sadr, Al-Sudani’s candidacy represents a personal challenge to him and his broad popular movement. Following in the footsteps of the Tishreen movement, al-Sadr himself had previously opposed al-Sudani’s candidacy. Several months ago, al-Sadr’s spokesman published on social media sites mocking al-Sudani’s nomination for the position, hinting at his closeness to Mr. Maliki, whom al-Sadr considers his main political opponent.[/size]
[size=45]And he explained: “But the question that everyone wants to know the answer to now, what will Al-Sadr’s response to this nomination be? There are three possible scenarios: The first is Al-Sadr’s silence about this nomination in order for Al-Sudani to proceed with forming his government, then Al-Sadr begins to mobilize his supporters after giving Al-Sudani a deadline (not exceeding a few months) to discover the extent of his success. Al-Sadr's silence so far over Al-Sudani's candidacy seems likely, contrary to what many observers expected, for this scenario. However, the expected problems at the start of the cabinet selection process, and the provocations of the framework forces for Al-Sadr may make the scenario of Al-Sadr's silence for a longer period of time unlikely. In addition, Al-Sadr may find that the opportunity is ripe now before the framework forces take control of the state apparatus, especially the security ones, which will then take sides against any peaceful popular protest movement. Of course, this scenario may also lead to a political schism within the Sadrist camp.”[/size]
[size=45]He went on to say: “The second scenario is the success of mediations conducted by some of the framework forces to satisfy al-Sadr, whether by granting him ministerial portfolios or giving him guarantees of early upcoming elections, or even granting him the right of veto over risk candidates for ministerial positions. The possibilities of this scenario do not seem strong in light of what al-Sadr personally said, and what those close to him said that he had decided his decision not to negotiate with the forces of the framework except in public and under the eyes and ears of all Iraqis. In an example of this, al-Sadr's spokesman tweeted on social media a few days ago that al-Sadr will not allow any of his supporters to join the new government.[/size]
[size=45]He pointed out: “The third scenario remains the most likely, and it is represented by Al-Sadr investing on a close occasion, such as the third anniversary of the escalation of the October Revolution on the 25th of this month, or perhaps investing in any other event close to launching popular protests that may abort the formation of the government before its birth. This scenario can be reinforced by leaking information about the existence of talks aimed at establishing understandings between the October leadership and the Sadrists, after which efforts will be united and forces mobilized for a major popular uprising that overthrows the regime. If the popular alliance between the Sadrists and the forces of October succeeds, there is no doubt that the splits within the coordinating framework forces that appeared to the public at the time of the election of the President of the Republic will increase. Then the possibilities of armed chaos will return unless the political and religious forces represented by Ayatollah Al-Sistani are able to control the weapons of non-state spread in the hands of everyone. In any case, the new government (even if it was formed and carried out its duties) has fields and not a single minefield, which makes Mr. Al-Sudani's mission more like an impossible task. Will the Sudanese Mr. Tom Cruise be Iraq and end this impossible task?? Certainly, it will not be long before we know the answer.”[/size]
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