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A crossroads in front of Iraq: Sudanese is in a dilemma between the factions and Washington
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2023-11-10 02:02
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Shafaq News/ The American “Atlantic Council” Institute considered that geopolitical and local factors are converging in Iraq, which faces the challenge of achieving a high-risk balance, bearing the consequences of its relationship with the United States and regional stability, warning that Iraq is at a crossroads in the heart of the Middle East in light of the dynamics The complex conflict between Israel and Hamas.
After the American report, translated by Shafaq News Agency, indicated that Iraq is trying to navigate the complex relations between its Shiite militias and the United States, it stated that Iraq is the only Arab country that has refused to sign an armistice agreement with Israel since the Arab-Israeli War in 1948, This means that Iraq is technically at war with Israel, which is a historical enmity that greatly affects its position in the current war.
The report pointed out that Iraq refuses to recognize Israel as a state, and has, in addition, issued laws criminalizing any relations with this state, noting that this long-standing hostility forms the background through which Iraq's current position on the war between Hamas and Israel is formulated.
The report talked about conflicting positions in Iraq since the attack of last October 7, as the government’s official position revolves around diplomatic efforts to end the conflict, calling for the establishment of a Palestinian state, and opening humanitarian corridors for the residents of Gaza, while it pointed to the position of Parliament Speaker Muhammad al-Halbousi, who called for To hold an Arab parliamentary summit in Baghdad, which highlights Iraq's proactive approach in dealing with regional conflicts. The report also mentioned the Iraqi government’s statement on the first day of the war, in which it affirmed its commitment to the Palestinian cause, and held Israel responsible for the consequences of the attack, considering it “a natural result of the systematic oppression to which the Palestinians have been subjected for a long time at the hands of the Zionist occupying authority.”
In addition, Iraqi Prime Minister Muhammad Shiaa Al-Sudani took important diplomatic steps by making phone calls with Arab and regional leaders, and received a phone call from US President Joe Biden on October 16, which reflects Washington’s awareness of the impact of the conflict in Gaza. On the entire region and on the role of Iraq.
Challenges of Iraqi-American relations
After the report indicated that tensions between the United States and many Iraqi armed groups allied with Iran and involved in the political process, many of which participated in attacks on American interests in Iraq and Syria during the past 7 years, the report said that since Sudanese assumed the presidency of the government, they had declined. These tensions are noticeable, for reasons including the majority of these groups aligning with the Sudanese coalition to form a government, which required a temporary truce with the United States.
However, the report said that the conflict in Gaza exacerbates the complexity of Iraq’s relationship with the United States, especially since armed groups have resumed attacks with missiles and drones on American interests in Iraq, adding that this threat is expected to worsen as long as the Israel-Hamas war continues, while many Pro-Iranian Iraqi militia leaders, including prominent figures such as Hadi al-Amiri and groups such as Kataib Hezbollah, issued statements praising the Hamas attack and threatened US interests in Iraq if Washington intervened on behalf of Israel.
In addition to these, the report said that the influential cleric, Mr. Muqtada al-Sadr, called on the government to officially end the American mission in Iraq and close the embassy, but he refused to resort to violence against American diplomats. He also warned that he was considering taking other measures if the Iraqi government did not respond. For his demands.
Although the report considered that these positions are partly linked to internal competition, between the pro-Iranian camps and the Sadr bloc, it stressed that the Palestinian issue remains a sensitive and popular issue, and enjoys the support of most political figures.
The report considered that one of the examples that highlights the importance of the relationship between the United States and Iraq is that Washington remains a crucial partner for Iraq in the war against ISIS, and that the Iraqi economy depends greatly on its relations with the United States, as the Central Bank of Iraq depends on the policies of the Federal Reserve. The US in order to obtain its foreign currency reserves amounting to 100 billion dollars.
The report also mentioned that there is another element that must be taken into consideration, which is related to how Washington granted Iraq specific exemptions from sanctions for the electricity sector and allowed it to establish trade relations with Tehran, despite the US sanctions on Iran.
Iraq's stability is at stake
In the context of all of this, the report said that the visit of US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken to Baghdad on November 5 reflects great importance because Iraq was and will continue to be affected by the Gaza war, noting that Iraq is considered the only country in the region that hosts thousands of American soldiers and armed groups. Historically opposed to the United States and loyal to Iran, which confirms the image of Iraq's exceptional and unstable role in the broader geopolitical scene.
After the report stated that Al-Sudani faces a difficult dilemma, he explained that he must achieve a delicate balance between the interests of the United States and the armed groups that work as partners within his government while enjoying great political influence over it, adding that Al-Sudani’s failure to meet the demands of the various active parties inside Iraq is not an option. .
The report believed that such failure could lead to his removal from his position, which would create political and security instability in the country and further complicate the fragile situation, which constitutes a threat to relations between the United States, Iraq, and the broader Middle East, as it will become difficult for the Sudanese to succeed in achieving... Balancing the demands of influential militias, while at the same time maintaining the relationship with the United States.
The report concluded by saying that this delicate situation underscores the importance of Blinken’s visit in order to deal with the complex dynamics and enhance stability in the region, adding that Al-Sudani also realizes the value of relations with the United States, and therefore he expressed his support for the continued presence of American forces in Iraq.
But the report concluded by saying that with the escalation of the war in Gaza, Sudanese may lose control and be exposed to enormous pressure from within his coalition and from his rivals such as Al-Sadr, adding that in light of this environment full of dangers, the peaceful diplomatic solution remains the wisest method to avoid further unrest and expansion. The conflict spreads to the wider region.
[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]
[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]
2023-11-10 02:02
Share
Font
Shafaq News/ The American “Atlantic Council” Institute considered that geopolitical and local factors are converging in Iraq, which faces the challenge of achieving a high-risk balance, bearing the consequences of its relationship with the United States and regional stability, warning that Iraq is at a crossroads in the heart of the Middle East in light of the dynamics The complex conflict between Israel and Hamas.
After the American report, translated by Shafaq News Agency, indicated that Iraq is trying to navigate the complex relations between its Shiite militias and the United States, it stated that Iraq is the only Arab country that has refused to sign an armistice agreement with Israel since the Arab-Israeli War in 1948, This means that Iraq is technically at war with Israel, which is a historical enmity that greatly affects its position in the current war.
The report pointed out that Iraq refuses to recognize Israel as a state, and has, in addition, issued laws criminalizing any relations with this state, noting that this long-standing hostility forms the background through which Iraq's current position on the war between Hamas and Israel is formulated.
The report talked about conflicting positions in Iraq since the attack of last October 7, as the government’s official position revolves around diplomatic efforts to end the conflict, calling for the establishment of a Palestinian state, and opening humanitarian corridors for the residents of Gaza, while it pointed to the position of Parliament Speaker Muhammad al-Halbousi, who called for To hold an Arab parliamentary summit in Baghdad, which highlights Iraq's proactive approach in dealing with regional conflicts. The report also mentioned the Iraqi government’s statement on the first day of the war, in which it affirmed its commitment to the Palestinian cause, and held Israel responsible for the consequences of the attack, considering it “a natural result of the systematic oppression to which the Palestinians have been subjected for a long time at the hands of the Zionist occupying authority.”
In addition, Iraqi Prime Minister Muhammad Shiaa Al-Sudani took important diplomatic steps by making phone calls with Arab and regional leaders, and received a phone call from US President Joe Biden on October 16, which reflects Washington’s awareness of the impact of the conflict in Gaza. On the entire region and on the role of Iraq.
Challenges of Iraqi-American relations
After the report indicated that tensions between the United States and many Iraqi armed groups allied with Iran and involved in the political process, many of which participated in attacks on American interests in Iraq and Syria during the past 7 years, the report said that since Sudanese assumed the presidency of the government, they had declined. These tensions are noticeable, for reasons including the majority of these groups aligning with the Sudanese coalition to form a government, which required a temporary truce with the United States.
However, the report said that the conflict in Gaza exacerbates the complexity of Iraq’s relationship with the United States, especially since armed groups have resumed attacks with missiles and drones on American interests in Iraq, adding that this threat is expected to worsen as long as the Israel-Hamas war continues, while many Pro-Iranian Iraqi militia leaders, including prominent figures such as Hadi al-Amiri and groups such as Kataib Hezbollah, issued statements praising the Hamas attack and threatened US interests in Iraq if Washington intervened on behalf of Israel.
In addition to these, the report said that the influential cleric, Mr. Muqtada al-Sadr, called on the government to officially end the American mission in Iraq and close the embassy, but he refused to resort to violence against American diplomats. He also warned that he was considering taking other measures if the Iraqi government did not respond. For his demands.
Although the report considered that these positions are partly linked to internal competition, between the pro-Iranian camps and the Sadr bloc, it stressed that the Palestinian issue remains a sensitive and popular issue, and enjoys the support of most political figures.
The report considered that one of the examples that highlights the importance of the relationship between the United States and Iraq is that Washington remains a crucial partner for Iraq in the war against ISIS, and that the Iraqi economy depends greatly on its relations with the United States, as the Central Bank of Iraq depends on the policies of the Federal Reserve. The US in order to obtain its foreign currency reserves amounting to 100 billion dollars.
The report also mentioned that there is another element that must be taken into consideration, which is related to how Washington granted Iraq specific exemptions from sanctions for the electricity sector and allowed it to establish trade relations with Tehran, despite the US sanctions on Iran.
Iraq's stability is at stake
In the context of all of this, the report said that the visit of US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken to Baghdad on November 5 reflects great importance because Iraq was and will continue to be affected by the Gaza war, noting that Iraq is considered the only country in the region that hosts thousands of American soldiers and armed groups. Historically opposed to the United States and loyal to Iran, which confirms the image of Iraq's exceptional and unstable role in the broader geopolitical scene.
After the report stated that Al-Sudani faces a difficult dilemma, he explained that he must achieve a delicate balance between the interests of the United States and the armed groups that work as partners within his government while enjoying great political influence over it, adding that Al-Sudani’s failure to meet the demands of the various active parties inside Iraq is not an option. .
The report believed that such failure could lead to his removal from his position, which would create political and security instability in the country and further complicate the fragile situation, which constitutes a threat to relations between the United States, Iraq, and the broader Middle East, as it will become difficult for the Sudanese to succeed in achieving... Balancing the demands of influential militias, while at the same time maintaining the relationship with the United States.
The report concluded by saying that this delicate situation underscores the importance of Blinken’s visit in order to deal with the complex dynamics and enhance stability in the region, adding that Al-Sudani also realizes the value of relations with the United States, and therefore he expressed his support for the continued presence of American forces in Iraq.
But the report concluded by saying that with the escalation of the war in Gaza, Sudanese may lose control and be exposed to enormous pressure from within his coalition and from his rivals such as Al-Sadr, adding that in light of this environment full of dangers, the peaceful diplomatic solution remains the wisest method to avoid further unrest and expansion. The conflict spreads to the wider region.
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