Iraq after the liberation of Mosul, coalition countries and the geopolitical realities (2-3
10/26/2016 0:00
[rtl] We tried in the first article to analyze the internal Iraqi situation careful analysis, comprehensive and look at it from multiple sides, and in this second part we will try to analyze and infer the role of the international coalition and the geopolitical situation of theregion and Iraq, and in the third and fourth will try to infer the future of the popular crowd and important data for the security of Iraq.
From American perspective and the coalition countries, the liberalization of Mosul mean the end of the official entity of the Islamic State (Daesh), and that the receding Daesh will remain an important goal of the United States, especially in the lack of expansion in Lebanon, Jordan or Israel or Saudi Arabia, which regards the problem of Daesh in terms of geopolitical regional note that we as Iraqis look the problem from a national perspective and purely local, and perhaps after the liberation of Mosul, the US will turn attention toward Syria and complexity and will hold the Syrian arena to contain anticipated. Regarding the timing of the release of Mosul process, Washington is mostly just looking for the right conditions and not for a specific date, and if the US elections (especially for the Democratic Party) is going the path of naturally there will be no rush but would wait for the right moment for the Liberation of Mosul and take advantage of itsimpact on the geopolitical situation of the region. US President Obama has identified two - three years ago to destroy the existence of Daesh and what is happening now is within those parameters and contexts planned and estimated them. For the American side regarding the Iraqi political equation of how close or after the West in its relations with friends and allies in the region, lack visions agree not help the parties to strengthen their relationship in the future, and here the question comes what the nature of the expected relationship between Baghdad and Washington after the liberation of Mosul on the level of security and political cooperation The military? From the American side , it does not wait for an answer to this question , but he would work quietly (and a timetable long as their assessment and not according to the convictions of Iraqis) to push Iraq toward security and political stability, especially they know the extent of the rift created by theoccupation of Daesh and accepted by terrorism in Iraq and the importance of Iraq 'sstability relative the stability of the region.
with regard to the recent tension between Iraq and Turkey and the Turkish gross interference in Iraq, the containment of Turkey and not fight or besiege it will be theAmericans approach in dealing with the Turkish dimension in Iraq, the United States iswell aware that the political volatility in Ankara will have a direct impact on the course ofevents edit and after the liberation of Mosul, as Turkey will install its military presence and be a permanent element in the Iraqi and Syrian dialogues around Mosul and others, because that Turkey considers the threat from al PKK affect national security and thethreat from al Daesh possible containment to take advantage of it to influence the geopolitical dimension In the area. It is necessary to mention that talking about thedivision of the province connector into regions or provinces helps advocates the division of Iraq and also gives an excuse for many of the regional parties, and in particular Turkey, direct intervention. There is a real and substantial correlation between thestability in Syria and the stability of Iraq and the opposite is also, as well as the liberalization of the connector means a new beginning for Iraq after Daesh, which is thebeginning of a new Syrian position is after a local Daasha not transboundary, and theeradication of organizing Daesh terrorist from Syria may need from year to year and ahalf after the liberation of Mosul, knowing that to reach consensus in the Geneva talks on Syria will be central to the stability of Iraq after the liberation of Mosul.
regarding the geopolitical dimension to the provinces with a majority Sunni Arab in theequation, the weakness of dialogues between Iraq and neighboring countries , the Arab increased the relationship gap between them and increased conviction many Iraqis said near Iraq and the Arab countries want to have a role in the liberation of Mosul in order toensure the possibility of changing the map of Iraq at them and do not prove and stabilize the political process rules and Iraq after 2003.
mainly Sunni provincial leaders fear is not a weak influence on the decision - makers in Baghdad but only weak influence on the regional power centers and the international dimension as well, and the lack of inclusion of these sons of the provinces under one umbrella or under the command of a single leader or a single entity will prolong the challenges of these provinces and thus prolongs the Iraqi political tension. It is also necessary to be leaders of the provinces , which was liberated from Daesh unit insights into their role and their understanding of the overall Iraqi identity for Iraq after 2003.Weak adherence to these new identity (or social contract) would be counterproductive on the strength of the role of the year in building the new Iraq, especially with the success of Daesh increase in the gap between the components of Iraq. Here comes the role ofgovernment and the Iraqi leaders and the United Nations and some countries friends in the concentration of dialogues about the unification of visions between the different Iraqi parties, knowing that poor infrastructure and energy sources in areas Gharbahsadjal pursuit of some of the division of Iraq into federal units and cutters counterproductive them the results, it is necessary not to forget that their strength is in Iraq 's power as aunited cohesive.
With regard to the Kurdish dimension, the strength of post fighters Peshmerga in theliberation of Mosul would be a useful component in uniting Iraq 's unity, but Mntlgahm may depend on the extent of their ability , install what had dominated it from the land in the conflicting areas on it , and their participation dependent perhaps on sang these areas oil - powered with a note that the strength of the participation of the Kurds in theliberation of the province of Nineveh will increase their popularity in the international fora, especially in the US Congress. On the other hand we see that the National Alliance (Shiite) must have the political visions are clear and unambiguous to Iraq after Daesh order to be able to lead a dialogue with the Kurdish and Sunni Arab parties and others, Vodouh these visions can set new rules of dialogue between the various Iraqi leaders.
Kurdish differences - Kurdish will increase with the growing conviction of all Kurdish parties , the Kurdistan difficulty independence and therefore the whole Kurdish eyes will be on Washington to see the extent of freedom of movement in this regard. On the other hand the closer Washington from one of the Kurdish parties , you will see the other sides heading east or north. There is a golden opportunity for the Kurdish leadership in Iraq , anew building on a new basis of mutual benefit strategy with the central government andall the ingredients, you will be after considering coexistence and common development with the South or the continuation of their project and the loss of all Altakndqat address?
* Iraq 's ambassador in America[/rtl]
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