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Established in 2006 as a Community of Reality

Welcome to the Neno's Place!

Neno's Place Established in 2006 as a Community of Reality


Neno

I can be reached by phone or text 8am-7pm cst 972-768-9772 or, once joining the board I can be reached by a (PM) Private Message.

Established in 2006 as a Community of Reality

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    Oil in 2023: 5 reasons for the fall and 7 for the rise.. Who will prevail in the end?

    Rocky
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    Oil in 2023: 5 reasons for the fall and 7 for the rise.. Who will prevail in the end? Empty Oil in 2023: 5 reasons for the fall and 7 for the rise.. Who will prevail in the end?

    Post by Rocky Thu 29 Dec 2022, 5:39 am

    Oil in 2023: 5 reasons for the fall and 7 for the rise.. Who will prevail in the end?

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    Economy News-Baghdad
    Major institutions have lowered their oil price forecasts for 2023
    China ending the zero-COVID policy is one of the main factors that could lead to higher prices
    It's time to know the oil market outlook for 2023, keeping in mind the usual rules: less predictions and more guidance on what to look for.
    We've already seen major institutions cut their oil price forecasts for 2023. For example, Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) changed its forecast for the price of Brent crude in Q1 and Q2 of 2023 to $90, $95 per barrel, instead of $115, $105 per barrel. , Straight.
    In November, Goldman Sachs said Brent would average $110 a barrel in 2023, but the bank now thinks it will average just $98 a barrel. Goldman's forecast is on the higher side of the forecast for the average Brent crude price - the EIA forecast is currently at $92 per barrel, while JP Morgan (NYSE:JPM) forecasts come in at $90 per barrel (down from the previous forecast of $98).
    Traders should keep in mind that all price forecasts from banks and international organizations will be revised as the year progresses. With that in mind, here's a look at some of the issues that could be the biggest drivers of oil prices in 2023.
    Factors that may lead to higher oil prices in 2023
    China ending the zero covid policy
    China has already started winding down its restrictive coronavirus policies, but there seems to be a great deal of reluctance to return to economic normality. Oil demand is likely to pick up by the second half of the year and that could push up global oil prices at that time.
    The United States replenishes the Strategic Petroleum Reserve
    After selling off record amounts of oil from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the White House is now looking to replenish it. The government wants to snap up a deal, but at $65 to $70 a barrel this could be a good deal for many oil companies who fear lower prices in 2023. Given how much oil the government wants to buy, that could be an additional source of demand that could Helps raise prices in general.
    Stability or decline in US oil production
    The Energy Information Administration (EIA) still expects oil production to reach 12.34 million barrels per day in 2023, but many oil companies indicate that they are unlikely to produce more oil than they do now.
    Given supply chain constraints, regulatory uncertainty, a tough labor market, and pressure from shareholders to pay dividends instead of investing in new production, it is possible that we could see U.S. oil production capacity flat or even decline in the same timing as global oil demand increases. This would raise oil prices.
    Sanctions imposed on Russian petroleum products transported by sea
    These sanctions will come into force in February and will likely cause at least a short-term increase in petrol prices in Europe. However, as more Russian crude is shipped to China, Turkey and Indonesia for refining, the prices of petroleum products should fall as there are no US or European sanctions on petroleum products derived from Russian crude oil outside of Russia.
    OPEC+ cut or maintain production quotas
    OPEC+ may try to raise oil prices by lowering production quotas in 2023 or by keeping production quotas the same in the face of rising oil demand.
    Further inflation / devaluation of the US dollar
    Oil is priced in dollars, and if the value of the US dollar declines relative to foreign currencies, oil producers will need to sell their oil at higher prices in order to generate the same revenue in their currency.
    Unexpected natural disaster or war
    For example, these natural changes could include a very cold winter, a nuclear disaster, or a hurricane. Geopolitical issues may include Chinese encroachment on Taiwan or the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East.
    Factors that may lead to lower oil prices in 2023
    global recession
    Many economists believe that we are about to enter a global recession, and there are indications that Europe and the United States will enter a recession in 2023. In general, the demand for oil will decrease, and therefore oil prices will decline during a recession. However, demand for gasoline and distillates remains strong, which contradicts other signs of an impending recession.
    OPEC + increases production
    In a recession, OPEC+ could increase production in order to ease the economic burden on struggling economies. However, at this point, only Saudi Arabia, Iraq and the UAE have the capacity to increase their production, so any increase in production will be relatively muted.
    Chinese demand for oil is lower than expected
    China's economic reopening may not go as planned, in which case, China's oil demand may increase more gradually than expected, putting less pressure on global oil supplies. This could push prices down or at least prevent them from rising.
    Russia and the European Union are reconciling their differences and resuming energy trade between them
    The challenges of living without Russian oil and gas could be very difficult for the European Union. policy makers. They may have to resolve their differences with Russia in 2023 and resume buying cheap Russian natural gas and more accessible oil. This will lead to lower oil prices in 2023.
    The nuclear deal between the United States and Iran ends oil sanctions
    Negotiating a nuclear deal with Iran is not a top priority for the White House right now, but it could become a foreign policy high point in 2023.
    Under pressure, the Biden administration may try to reach a new nuclear deal with Iran and end sanctions on its oil industry. If that happens, re-entering Iranian oil trading into the global market would drive down prices.

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    Added 12/29/2022 - 11:09 AM
    Updated 12/29/2022 - 2:36 PM


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