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Billions of losses due to the cessation of Kurdistan's oil exports: the government's inability to find another outlet
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2023-05-29 04:30
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Shafaq News/ It seems that the consequences of delaying the resumption of oil exports from the region and Kirkuk through the Turkish port of Ceyhan will negatively affect not only the Kurdistan Region, but even the general budget of Iraq, whose paragraphs indicate the export of 3,500,000 barrels per day, of which 400,000 barrels are from Kurdistan and about 80 A thousand barrels from the fields of Kirkuk.
On March 25, Turkey stopped shipping the Kurdistan Region's oil to the port of Ceyhan, after an international arbitration decision obligated Ankara to pay compensation to Baghdad, for violating the 1973 pipeline agreement by allowing the export of KRG oil without the approval of the Iraqi government.
The oil pipeline, which extends from the province of Kirkuk to the port of Ceyhan, is the only export route for the crude produced by the oil fields in northern Iraq.
The Iraqi government and the Kurdistan Regional Government signed a temporary agreement on April 4 paving the way for the resumption of oil exports, but this did not materialize after Turkey refused to re-export oil from the north through the Turkish port of Ceyhan.
Billion dollar losses per month
Oil expert, Nabil Al-Marsoumi, confirmed in an interview with Shafaq News agency, "The stoppage of oil exports through the port of Ceyhan has been more than two months, and therefore the actual losses per month are about one billion dollars, after stopping exports of more than 470,000 barrels per day."
He continued, "According to the general budget, oil exports are calculated to be around 3.5 million barrels per day, and at the present time what is currently being exported without Kurdistan oil is around 3.3 million barrels per day, which means that the difference is around 200,000 barrels, which is a loss of about half a billion dollars per month." ", stressing that "the continuation of the stop will increase the losses of Iraq."
Al-Marsoumi called for "resolving the issue of exporting through the north, which is politically and technically problematic, because the Turkish side is pressuring Iraq for several issues, including the reduction of interest on the fine set by the International Trade Court in Paris, amounting to 1.5 billion dollars, as well as the desire to obtain low oil prices as it was." The region supplies it to Turkey, or keeping the price of Iraqi oil passing through the port of Ceyhan, which was raised to two dollars a barrel after it was a dollar and 12 cents," pointing out that "Turkey is trying to put pressure on Iraq on these issues in order to delay the flow of Kurdistan oil, and the pressure to use it may increase Maybe even water releases in order to create some kind of geopolitical pressure on Iraq."
Al-Marsoumi predicted that "the final result will be that Turkey will finally acquiesce in this decision, which is to allow the export of oil through the Turkish port of Ceyhan, because the decision of the International Trade Court in Paris is a binding decision, and also the Turks are the signatories to the agreements for the passage of pipelines through their lands, and therefore refusing that will harm Turkey's reputation when it does not become a corridor." Security for the flow of energy, oil and perhaps gas.
Territory salaries
Al-Marsoumi pointed out that "the problem of salaries for the employees of the region appeared after Kurdistan's oil stopped exporting, and according to the agreement, the export is through SOMO, and its financial value is placed in a special account, but today the situation has become different, as Kurdistan cannot export oil, which generates It is very problematic because the ability of the Ministry of Oil to receive 400,000 barrels per day is limited, whether from storage or transportation.”
He added, "From a humanitarian point of view, the salaries of the region's employees are supposed to be transferred from the budget, and awaiting what the solution with Turkey will result in, because there are more than 600,000 employees without salaries who are mainly Iraqis, especially if we know that Kurdistan's ability to deal with this seems difficult if it was It is normal and the region exports its oil, it would have been possible to cover these salaries."
Technical problems
"The Turkish side says that there are "technical problems" that impede the resumption of his work," Farhad Aladdin, advisor to the Iraqi prime minister for foreign relations, said in press statements followed by Shafaq News Agency, noting at the same time that "the Turkish run-off elections may be obsessing the interests of Turkish officials in present time".
He added, "The Turkish side initially asked to negotiate a fine approved by the court, estimated at $1.5 billion, but later they told us that the process of stopping the oil through Ceyhan pipelines was due to technical problems."
Türkiye's conditions behind the ban
"The effect of stopping the region's exports depends on the procedures of the Ministry of Oil, because it is assumed that there are additional quantities of oil that we cannot sell because of the OPEC agreements, so if the ministry uses them, we will not be affected much by this stop," oil expert Hamza Al-Jawahiri said in an interview with Shafaq News agency.
He pointed out that "Turkey claims that there are technical reasons behind its refusal so far to allow oil to be exported from the north through the Turkish port of Ceyhan, but that there may be political pressure on the Iraqi government in order to grant Turkey some concessions because there is a fine of one billion and 500 million dollars on the latter, and therefore the The purpose of the ban is still unknown.
He stressed that "the main reason for not resuming the export of Kurdistan's oil through the port of Ceyhan is the presence of a set of conditions for Turkey."
And the Minister of Finance and Economy in the Kurdistan Regional Government, Awat Sheikh Janab, announced the inability of the regional government to pay the salaries of employees for the month of April, due to the suspension of oil exports.
Iraq asked Turkey this month to resume pipeline flows and loading operations at Ceyhan on May 13.
Waiting for a reply
Iraqi Oil Minister Hayan Abdul-Ghani said that in the "coming soon" days, the resumption of oil exports from the Kurdistan Region will be announced.
And Abdul-Ghani indicated that "the Iraqi government has reached the final stages of implementing the agreement with Erbil regarding the resumption of oil exports from the Kurdistan Region," pointing out that "the oil marketing company that undertook the process of receiving and exporting oil from the region is now in the process of signing contracts with companies that buy oil." ".
Iraqi Oil Minister Hayan Abdul-Ghani confirmed that Baghdad "is still awaiting a final response from Turkey before resuming oil exports from the Kurdistan Region of Iraq through the Turkish port of Ceyhan, after the latter informed Iraq that a technical team is working to assess whether the pipeline has been damaged as a result." The devastating earthquake in February.
The issue is political
An oil official said in an interview with Shafaq News agency that the issue is more political than technical, "expecting" the resumption of exports to Turkish Ceyhan after the completion of the Turkish elections.
The official, who preferred not to be named, added that "Botas itself does not know when the resumption of oil exports will be approved," stressing that "the latter has not yet received instructions from the Turkish authorities."
Visit to Turkey
An official in the Kurdistan Regional Government of Iraq revealed this May that a joint delegation from the Iraqi Ministry of Oil and the Ministry of Natural Resources in the Government of Kurdistan will visit the Turkish capital, Ankara, to discuss the issue of resuming oil exports through the Turkish port of Ceyhan after it was stopped more than a month ago, following a decision international judicial.
[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]
[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]
2023-05-29 04:30
Share
Font
Shafaq News/ It seems that the consequences of delaying the resumption of oil exports from the region and Kirkuk through the Turkish port of Ceyhan will negatively affect not only the Kurdistan Region, but even the general budget of Iraq, whose paragraphs indicate the export of 3,500,000 barrels per day, of which 400,000 barrels are from Kurdistan and about 80 A thousand barrels from the fields of Kirkuk.
On March 25, Turkey stopped shipping the Kurdistan Region's oil to the port of Ceyhan, after an international arbitration decision obligated Ankara to pay compensation to Baghdad, for violating the 1973 pipeline agreement by allowing the export of KRG oil without the approval of the Iraqi government.
The oil pipeline, which extends from the province of Kirkuk to the port of Ceyhan, is the only export route for the crude produced by the oil fields in northern Iraq.
The Iraqi government and the Kurdistan Regional Government signed a temporary agreement on April 4 paving the way for the resumption of oil exports, but this did not materialize after Turkey refused to re-export oil from the north through the Turkish port of Ceyhan.
Billion dollar losses per month
Oil expert, Nabil Al-Marsoumi, confirmed in an interview with Shafaq News agency, "The stoppage of oil exports through the port of Ceyhan has been more than two months, and therefore the actual losses per month are about one billion dollars, after stopping exports of more than 470,000 barrels per day."
He continued, "According to the general budget, oil exports are calculated to be around 3.5 million barrels per day, and at the present time what is currently being exported without Kurdistan oil is around 3.3 million barrels per day, which means that the difference is around 200,000 barrels, which is a loss of about half a billion dollars per month." ", stressing that "the continuation of the stop will increase the losses of Iraq."
Al-Marsoumi called for "resolving the issue of exporting through the north, which is politically and technically problematic, because the Turkish side is pressuring Iraq for several issues, including the reduction of interest on the fine set by the International Trade Court in Paris, amounting to 1.5 billion dollars, as well as the desire to obtain low oil prices as it was." The region supplies it to Turkey, or keeping the price of Iraqi oil passing through the port of Ceyhan, which was raised to two dollars a barrel after it was a dollar and 12 cents," pointing out that "Turkey is trying to put pressure on Iraq on these issues in order to delay the flow of Kurdistan oil, and the pressure to use it may increase Maybe even water releases in order to create some kind of geopolitical pressure on Iraq."
Al-Marsoumi predicted that "the final result will be that Turkey will finally acquiesce in this decision, which is to allow the export of oil through the Turkish port of Ceyhan, because the decision of the International Trade Court in Paris is a binding decision, and also the Turks are the signatories to the agreements for the passage of pipelines through their lands, and therefore refusing that will harm Turkey's reputation when it does not become a corridor." Security for the flow of energy, oil and perhaps gas.
Territory salaries
Al-Marsoumi pointed out that "the problem of salaries for the employees of the region appeared after Kurdistan's oil stopped exporting, and according to the agreement, the export is through SOMO, and its financial value is placed in a special account, but today the situation has become different, as Kurdistan cannot export oil, which generates It is very problematic because the ability of the Ministry of Oil to receive 400,000 barrels per day is limited, whether from storage or transportation.”
He added, "From a humanitarian point of view, the salaries of the region's employees are supposed to be transferred from the budget, and awaiting what the solution with Turkey will result in, because there are more than 600,000 employees without salaries who are mainly Iraqis, especially if we know that Kurdistan's ability to deal with this seems difficult if it was It is normal and the region exports its oil, it would have been possible to cover these salaries."
Technical problems
"The Turkish side says that there are "technical problems" that impede the resumption of his work," Farhad Aladdin, advisor to the Iraqi prime minister for foreign relations, said in press statements followed by Shafaq News Agency, noting at the same time that "the Turkish run-off elections may be obsessing the interests of Turkish officials in present time".
He added, "The Turkish side initially asked to negotiate a fine approved by the court, estimated at $1.5 billion, but later they told us that the process of stopping the oil through Ceyhan pipelines was due to technical problems."
Türkiye's conditions behind the ban
"The effect of stopping the region's exports depends on the procedures of the Ministry of Oil, because it is assumed that there are additional quantities of oil that we cannot sell because of the OPEC agreements, so if the ministry uses them, we will not be affected much by this stop," oil expert Hamza Al-Jawahiri said in an interview with Shafaq News agency.
He pointed out that "Turkey claims that there are technical reasons behind its refusal so far to allow oil to be exported from the north through the Turkish port of Ceyhan, but that there may be political pressure on the Iraqi government in order to grant Turkey some concessions because there is a fine of one billion and 500 million dollars on the latter, and therefore the The purpose of the ban is still unknown.
He stressed that "the main reason for not resuming the export of Kurdistan's oil through the port of Ceyhan is the presence of a set of conditions for Turkey."
And the Minister of Finance and Economy in the Kurdistan Regional Government, Awat Sheikh Janab, announced the inability of the regional government to pay the salaries of employees for the month of April, due to the suspension of oil exports.
Iraq asked Turkey this month to resume pipeline flows and loading operations at Ceyhan on May 13.
Waiting for a reply
Iraqi Oil Minister Hayan Abdul-Ghani said that in the "coming soon" days, the resumption of oil exports from the Kurdistan Region will be announced.
And Abdul-Ghani indicated that "the Iraqi government has reached the final stages of implementing the agreement with Erbil regarding the resumption of oil exports from the Kurdistan Region," pointing out that "the oil marketing company that undertook the process of receiving and exporting oil from the region is now in the process of signing contracts with companies that buy oil." ".
Iraqi Oil Minister Hayan Abdul-Ghani confirmed that Baghdad "is still awaiting a final response from Turkey before resuming oil exports from the Kurdistan Region of Iraq through the Turkish port of Ceyhan, after the latter informed Iraq that a technical team is working to assess whether the pipeline has been damaged as a result." The devastating earthquake in February.
The issue is political
An oil official said in an interview with Shafaq News agency that the issue is more political than technical, "expecting" the resumption of exports to Turkish Ceyhan after the completion of the Turkish elections.
The official, who preferred not to be named, added that "Botas itself does not know when the resumption of oil exports will be approved," stressing that "the latter has not yet received instructions from the Turkish authorities."
Visit to Turkey
An official in the Kurdistan Regional Government of Iraq revealed this May that a joint delegation from the Iraqi Ministry of Oil and the Ministry of Natural Resources in the Government of Kurdistan will visit the Turkish capital, Ankara, to discuss the issue of resuming oil exports through the Turkish port of Ceyhan after it was stopped more than a month ago, following a decision international judicial.
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