Glut of oil worldwide will limit price gains .. and imports of Iranian oil from Asia to rise to 13%
Reuters / Tehran
Showed a poll conducted by Reuters and published its results, on Tuesday, are likely to limit the glut of world oil supply of crude price gains in the current year despite a series of cases of unexpected production downtime and shrinking US shale oil production.
And caused forest fires in Canada and political unrest in Venezuela and the disruption of supply in Nigeria and Libya stopped production of nearly four million barrels Aumia.oukad in order to calm the fears of oversupply and helped push oil prices to near $ 50 a barrel for the first time in seven months.
but some analysts do not expect more than the annual average oil prices for this level a lot before next year.
in the latest monthly opinion polls conducted by Reuters predicted three Thirty analysts who participated in thesurvey that the average price of Brent crude global measurement in 2016 to $ 43.60 a barrel , up $ 1.30 from last month 's forecast of his arrival to $ 42.30 a barrel. this
represents the third consecutive monthly increase in the forecast of Brent prices , which averaged about $ 39 a barrel since the beginning of the year.
However , the global oil stocks , which reached record highs , are expected to shift without achieving any gains large for some time.
the poll showed that expected to reach an average price of Brent futures to $ 56.40 a barrel in 2017 to rise to $ 64.30 in 2018.
Thomas said Pew, commodities analyst at Capital Economics said "cases of disruption of production of themain factors supporting prices at the moment. We do not believe that prices will increase significantly fromwhat it is now. "
He added , " In fact we see that prices are prone to come down in the near term if some of the stalled supplies have returned or are signs that high prices stimulate more production emerged. "
Analysts expect the participants in the Reuters poll to reach Average US crude futures to $ 42 a barrel in 2016 , up US $ 1.50 from the estimates in last month 's poll. the average US crude futures around $ 38 a barrel since the beginning of the year. analysts are agreed that predicted the failure to take important decisions in the Organization of Petroleum exporting countries meeting (OPEC) this week.
However, some analysts have expressed concern about the uncertainty surrounding the strategy of Saudi Arabia in light of competing with Iran on market share and after the appointment of the new energy Minister Khalid al - Falih.
Harry said Celinjueryan analyst at BNP Paribas "Do not expect too much of (meeting) next OPEC in light of the turmoil in the relations of producers after the Doha meeting. What upheld by the people is Saudi Arabia 'sposition and intentions in the era of the new Energy Minister Khalid al - Falih. "Through Analysts also expressed surprise at the pace at which lifted the Iran production and expect to return to the level ofproduction before the sanctions by the third quarter of this year at the latest.
He said Rahul Brithiana Director the Crisil Research , " the oil market is already saturated with excess supply of between one million and 1.5 million barrels per day. Given that Iran will likely increase production by at least 500 thousand to one million barrels per day in the near - term, despite the depreciation of the US shale production in the range of 600 thousand to 800 thousand barrels a day, the overall market will remain oversupplied anticipate continued weakness in demand growth with. "
It is expected most analysts match the supply demand in the next year , but agreed that it may take longer to get rid of surplus stocks in the market.
with imports Asia of Iranian oil rose in April by more than 13 percent compared with a year ago with Iran 'squest to regain share market lost because of international sanctions , where overwhelmed increase shipments to India and South Korea on the big drop in imports of Japan.
comes numbers are compatible with the download data obtained by Reuters earlier and confirms that Iran regain market share faster pace than expected after the lifting of the sanctions in January January.
Japan announced, on Tuesday, the official figures of its oil imports in April in the wake of statements earlier in China, India and South Korea. the imported the largest customer of Iranian oil a combined 1.3 million barrels a day last month , according to official government data and tracking data of ships.
It is expected Iran 's oil exports to Asia rise by almost 60 percent in May from a year earlier to 2.3 million barrels a day.
for several years before 2012 were Iran 's 2.5 million barrels per day of crude moved more than half of them to Asia, mainly to China , South Korea, India and Japan .
the preservation of the upward trend of exports challenge to Iran with the pursuit of rivals in the Middle East also to grab a slice of the market in light of the rise in crude prices over the past weeks.
sources in the sector ahead of OPEC meeting this week that Iraq has an additional five million barrels of crude will be released in June June to increase its market share.
the Saudi - largest oil exporter in the world additional quantities of crude with the transmission of its conflict with Iran to the oil markets.
And caused forest fires in Canada and political unrest in Venezuela and the disruption of supply in Nigeria and Libya stopped production of nearly four million barrels Aumia.oukad in order to calm the fears of oversupply and helped push oil prices to near $ 50 a barrel for the first time in seven months.
but some analysts do not expect more than the annual average oil prices for this level a lot before next year.
in the latest monthly opinion polls conducted by Reuters predicted three Thirty analysts who participated in thesurvey that the average price of Brent crude global measurement in 2016 to $ 43.60 a barrel , up $ 1.30 from last month 's forecast of his arrival to $ 42.30 a barrel. this
represents the third consecutive monthly increase in the forecast of Brent prices , which averaged about $ 39 a barrel since the beginning of the year.
However , the global oil stocks , which reached record highs , are expected to shift without achieving any gains large for some time.
the poll showed that expected to reach an average price of Brent futures to $ 56.40 a barrel in 2017 to rise to $ 64.30 in 2018.
Thomas said Pew, commodities analyst at Capital Economics said "cases of disruption of production of themain factors supporting prices at the moment. We do not believe that prices will increase significantly fromwhat it is now. "
He added , " In fact we see that prices are prone to come down in the near term if some of the stalled supplies have returned or are signs that high prices stimulate more production emerged. "
Analysts expect the participants in the Reuters poll to reach Average US crude futures to $ 42 a barrel in 2016 , up US $ 1.50 from the estimates in last month 's poll. the average US crude futures around $ 38 a barrel since the beginning of the year. analysts are agreed that predicted the failure to take important decisions in the Organization of Petroleum exporting countries meeting (OPEC) this week.
However, some analysts have expressed concern about the uncertainty surrounding the strategy of Saudi Arabia in light of competing with Iran on market share and after the appointment of the new energy Minister Khalid al - Falih.
Harry said Celinjueryan analyst at BNP Paribas "Do not expect too much of (meeting) next OPEC in light of the turmoil in the relations of producers after the Doha meeting. What upheld by the people is Saudi Arabia 'sposition and intentions in the era of the new Energy Minister Khalid al - Falih. "Through Analysts also expressed surprise at the pace at which lifted the Iran production and expect to return to the level ofproduction before the sanctions by the third quarter of this year at the latest.
He said Rahul Brithiana Director the Crisil Research , " the oil market is already saturated with excess supply of between one million and 1.5 million barrels per day. Given that Iran will likely increase production by at least 500 thousand to one million barrels per day in the near - term, despite the depreciation of the US shale production in the range of 600 thousand to 800 thousand barrels a day, the overall market will remain oversupplied anticipate continued weakness in demand growth with. "
It is expected most analysts match the supply demand in the next year , but agreed that it may take longer to get rid of surplus stocks in the market.
with imports Asia of Iranian oil rose in April by more than 13 percent compared with a year ago with Iran 'squest to regain share market lost because of international sanctions , where overwhelmed increase shipments to India and South Korea on the big drop in imports of Japan.
comes numbers are compatible with the download data obtained by Reuters earlier and confirms that Iran regain market share faster pace than expected after the lifting of the sanctions in January January.
Japan announced, on Tuesday, the official figures of its oil imports in April in the wake of statements earlier in China, India and South Korea. the imported the largest customer of Iranian oil a combined 1.3 million barrels a day last month , according to official government data and tracking data of ships.
It is expected Iran 's oil exports to Asia rise by almost 60 percent in May from a year earlier to 2.3 million barrels a day.
for several years before 2012 were Iran 's 2.5 million barrels per day of crude moved more than half of them to Asia, mainly to China , South Korea, India and Japan .
the preservation of the upward trend of exports challenge to Iran with the pursuit of rivals in the Middle East also to grab a slice of the market in light of the rise in crude prices over the past weeks.
sources in the sector ahead of OPEC meeting this week that Iraq has an additional five million barrels of crude will be released in June June to increase its market share.
the Saudi - largest oil exporter in the world additional quantities of crude with the transmission of its conflict with Iran to the oil markets.
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