Edmonton Oilers

G69 Oilers vs Stars: It's Not All Panic
March 14, 2017, 3:20 PM ET [56 Comments]
Matt Henderson
Edmonton Oilers Blogger • RSS • Archive • CONTACT
It’s not panic. It’s very real concern. The Oilers are playing very inconsistently and failing to capitalize on the games they actually do play well in. They weren’t very good against Montreal, but they were winning with about 6 minutes to go and somehow lost the game 4-1. As well as they played in the final 2 periods against the Penguins, that’s how awful they were against Julien’s Habs.

The Oilers aren’t in a free fall, per se, but Anaheim has a better record in their last 10 games and the Flames are in a franchise high 10 game winning streak. Of course nobody ever expects a 10 game winning streak so we didn’t foresee the Flames overtaking the Oilers in the standings, but now Edmonton is in the top wildcard spot instead of 2nd in the Pacific Division. If the playoffs started today, they would be taking on the San Jose Sharks.

This was not part of the plan.

Even with a win tonight, the Oilers would not leapfrog either of the clubs ahead of them. St Louis is breathing down Edmonton’s neck, just 2 points behind them. The Kings are 7 points back of Edmonton and the Oil will play them 3 more times before the regular season comes to a close. That series could be the one that seals the playoff hopes for either team.

Part of me, as an Oiler fan, is broken. I’m damaged in the way that makes an abused animal cower when someone reaches towards it. I’m waiting for the bottom to drop out and for this whole thing to collapse. So I hoped this sense of dread was driven entirely by that scarred psychology. Maybe the Oilers have been playing well but getting unlucky. Maybe this is just a little PDO (shooting + save percentage) dip that is part of the natural ebb and flow of the season.

Nope.

The Oilers have a rolling PDO (25 games) over the 100 “average” since the end of January. This isn’t a team getting some bad bounces. Fearing the worst, I went to look at the rolling Fenwick For percentage. This is where the team stands right now in terms of unblocked shot attempt percentage 5v5. It should give us an idea of how the Oilers are really faring. From here, the Oilers go from being a legitimately well performing team to one that is again just average in late January.

At the time of the season when teams start to play with rabid desperation, the Oilers have taken their foot off the gas pedal. What we’re feeling isn’t just some Chicken Little sky falling paranoia. The other teams in the Pacific got better at the trade deadline. The Oilers refused to address key areas of concern. The team is legitimately not performing as well as it had in previous months.

There’s another thing that is potentially happening that causes me a fair amount of concern. There’s this idea permeating down from the top of the organization that we should be happy with where we’re at. It starts with Chiarelli and looks like it has trickled down to the team. Chiarelli said he was happy with his team and didn’t “Go For It”. He added Desharnais for Davidson, a move that doesn’t look bad at all to me, but didn’t touch the defense or the lack of secondary offense from the wings.

There’s very much a “We’re just happy to be here. This isn’t our year anyway.” sort of feeling about this team despite the fact that they were top 10 in most major statistical categories for over half the season. After the game against the Habs Nugent-Hopkins had this to say, “At the start of the year if you asked us if we’d be in this spot… I’d take it after five years not even being close.”

What kind of garbage is that? They blew a lead with 6 minutes to go to lose in regulation by 3 goals while dropping like a stone in the standings and THAT was the post-game comment. So help me God, I love Ryan Nugent-Hopkins as much as any man can love a human being he’s never met just for playing a game, but where is the fire? Where is the desperation? Where is the anger???

Those comments from Nuge just smack of a player who is just happy to be there and that makes me really upset, because in case nobody noticed, they aren’t there yet. The Oilers have not locked down a playoff spot, as likely as they will be to make it in. They shouldn’t be losing games and talking about how low their damned expectations were for the year. Good grief.

Be better.

LINEUP

Benning in for Gryba, Slepyshev in for Pakarinen.

Maroon McDavid Draisiatl
Lucic RNH Eberle
Pouliot Desharnais Kassian
Hendricks Letestu Slepyshev

Klefbom Larsson
Sekera Russell
Nurse Benning

Talbot
Brossoit

OILERS KEYS TO THE GAME

1) Secret Agent Russell. Which Kris Russell are we getting tonight? That’s the question I have. Do we get the one that shows up every 15 games or so? – The one that showed up against Pittsburg? Because that player can skate, he activates offensively, he makes good decisions with the puck, and he can help the Oilers win this game. Or, do we get the other guy. The guy who plays in his own end of the ice all the time. The guy whose idea of a breakout pass is standing behind the net and ringing the puck around the glass. The guy who allows zone entries to happen completely uncontested? Because I’m pretty much tired of seeing that guy, and the fact that Russell’s high end is so much better than that makes me crazy when I watch him play. He needs to be skating. He needs to be more than an obstacle thrown in the way of an opposition shot.

2) Goodbye Ales? Ales Hemsky is returning to Edmonton. He’s missed the majority of the season with injury and while he’s only 33 years old, his body is breaking down more and more. Is it possible that we may not see him around much longer? He’s only appeared in 6 games this year, adding 2 assists over his last 2 games. For a long time he was the only reason to watch the Oilers. In his prime he could skate with the puck like very few in the league. He was Edmonton’s plan to move the disc up the ice. It was him then not many others. I will always remember the goal after the Patrick Stefan empty net gaffe but when I think of Hemsky, I think of him skating circles in the offensive zone. He could start at the right point, go behind the net, then circle out to the high slot. That’s vintage Ales. He’s 8th All-Time in Oiler scoring. Is this goodbye or am I reading too much into his constant injury woes?

3) Say Again? The Stars are not where they want to be in the standings, but Tyler Seguin is as offensively dangerous as expected. He’s a hair under a point per game at 68GP, 23-44-67. He’s certainly scored more in the past, but taking him lightly would be a mistake. What the Oilers will want to do, however, is keep themselves out of the penalty box. Tyler Seguin is 41st among NHL forwards in Points per 60 minutes 5v5 at 2.18 P/60 (minimum 200 mins), but jumps to 9th during the 5v4 PP at 6.79 P/60 (minimum 100 mins). He’s a great player who can create offense and finish plays at any time, but the Oilers can take away his most effective minutes by playing a smart game. If things go off the rails, that benefits the Stars a great deal.