Three dangers troubling 60% of the world’s economy .. Emerging markets are threatened in 2020
12:03 - 21/12/2019
Information / follow-up ..
Despite the apparent signs that it is about to end the year 2019 strongly, many analysts point out that emerging markets face many risks, from the repercussions of the trade war, through slowing growth, and ending with the potential impact of the US elections on global markets.
In addition to these risks, there are problems, which face each country separately, such as the high pace of bankruptcy in the Chinese domestic bond market, slowing economic growth in India, and the severity of the electricity shortage crisis in South Africa.
Bloomberg News reports that there are several different perceptions about the outlook for emerging markets, which represent about 60 per cent of the global economy, which is reflected in the difference in the outlook for these markets. The Swiss banking group UBS believes that the higher assets Risks in emerging markets will post slight returns during 2020, while US investment banks Goldman Sachs and J.J. P. Morgan Chase, “a brighter picture of stock markets in developing countries over the next year, as Morgan Stanley sees emerging market bonds likely to rise over the next year.
According to the "German", the value of stock markets in the world increased throughout this year by about three trillion dollars, while fluctuations in currency rates fell to their lowest levels in five years, and differences between the yield on bonds fell to the lowest level in nearly three years.
HSBC Holdings, which was adopting an optimistic view of 2019 earlier, stresses that the next will be more difficult.
"With the progress towards 2020, conditions do not go in one direction for the currencies of emerging markets, so that they form a broad recovery case ... it will be another disappointing year," said Hong Kong analysts, including Paul McKill and Joe Wang, who live in Hong Kong.
As was the case this year, investors in emerging markets will follow how relations between the United States and China develop during the new year, with many doubts about the possibility that the "stage 1" agreement announced this month will lead to significant progress on the deeper problems between The two countries, such as the US dissatisfaction with the huge industrial support network that Beijing provides to Chinese companies.
Any indication of increased tension between the two countries would negatively affect financial assets in developing countries, not just the Chinese yuan.
Bank of America says, "The outcome of the US-China trade war is fundamental to the outlook for emerging markets in 2020."
Jerome Powell, president of the US Federal Reserve, revived emerging market assets last week when he alluded to the board's intention to halt the increase in US interest rates until at least 2021.
If this happens, the dollar will not rise, and it will ensure the continued flow of capital to emerging markets.
On the other hand, if inflation rates rise unexpectedly, the Reserve Board and the main central banks in the world may have to increase interest rates and reduce the difference in the yield on the bonds of developed and emerging countries, so investors get an additional return when they buy dollar bonds issued by emerging countries instead of US Treasury bonds.
According to JPMorgan data, US bonds fell to their lowest levels since April 2018, taking the difference in the yield on emerging country bonds and US bonds to less than 300 basis points this month.
The International Monetary Fund believes that emerging economies will achieve a growth rate of 4.6 per cent over the next year, or nearly three times the growth rate of developed economies, and slowing growth in China and India will harm emerging economies as a whole, according to estimates by the American "Citigroup".
"The potential growth rates for emerging markets are going down ... and this raises questions about asset prices, especially foreign currencies," said analysts David Lubin in London and Dirk Willer in New York. In contrast, Goldman Sachs expects that Brazil, Mexico, Russia, South Africa and other emerging countries will have room for movement in terms of easing monetary policy, at least in the short term, to boost growth, which is good news for emerging markets as a whole.
This will further boost corporate earnings, and the rising stock will help achieve a return on investment of 11 per cent in 2020, the American investment bank says.
Goldman Sachs analysts, including Andrew Tilton, indicate that "many central banks in emerging markets can cut rates again in the coming months, although the number of banks ready to cut will decline over time."
The phenomenon of seeking higher returns may continue during the next year, especially with the continued low interest in advanced economies, but the decline in the return on bonds in the local currency during the current year means the possibility of declining attractiveness of emerging markets for hot moving capital.
The average rate of return on domestic bonds in developing countries fell to 4.2 percent, the lowest level in more than ten years, according to "Bloomberg Barclays Indicators."
Despite this, French Societe Generale bank analysts say investors are still betting on hot money to invest in some of the more risky currencies.
And the primaries to choose the Democratic candidate to run in the US presidential elections scheduled for next November 3 could leave their impact on the global markets, where most analysts believe that it is still too early to say whether emerging market assets will benefit from re-election. Donald Trump for a second term, or from another candidate's victory.
Societe Generale analysts, including Jason Dow in Singapore, ask: “Will Trump's victory in a second presidential term, or a Democratic candidate’s victory in the presidency, be good or bad news for financial markets?” This question will remain open, but there will be an impact on economic policy or confidence Before and after the elections. ”End / 25
Today at 11:57 am by wciappetta
» Al-Sudani: The world today is witnessing crises whose impact has been reflected in the global econo
Today at 9:50 am by Rocky
» The Federal Court responds to an inquiry by Al-Sudani regarding the powers of the provincial council
Today at 9:40 am by Rocky
» Among them are the Iraqis... a list of the most sought-after immigrants to America
Today at 9:38 am by Rocky
» An expert talks about the "biggest barrier" and the positives of merging Iraqi and Arab banks
Today at 9:29 am by Rocky
» The House of Representatives adjourns its session
Today at 9:24 am by Rocky
» Parliamentary demands to expedite the legislation of the Eid al-Ghadir holiday law (documents)
Today at 9:23 am by Rocky
» Parliament adds the paragraph “Electing the Speaker of the House of Representatives” to its agenda
Today at 9:21 am by Rocky
» Alsumaria publishes the text of the law against prostitution and homosexuality
Today at 9:20 am by Rocky
» A parliamentarian reveals the reason for the failure of the Speaker of Parliament to pass during tod
Today at 9:19 am by Rocky
» utube MM&C 4/24/24 Support - USA- Turkey - Timing- Currency Value - Tabled
Today at 8:51 am by Rocky
» utube MM&C 4/26/24 Iraqi Dinar - US Treasury Exchange Rates- Focus - Banking Partnerships - Rate C
Today at 8:49 am by Rocky
» Al-Sudani: The government has launched many strategies and initiatives that will improve the reality
Today at 8:42 am by Rocky
» International Business: Iraq has made progress in supporting businesses through investment and priva
Today at 8:33 am by Rocky
» Association of Banks: Iraq is witnessing great development in the transition to electronic governmen
Today at 8:25 am by Rocky
» The House of Representatives votes to add an item to its agenda (election of the Speaker of the Hous
Today at 8:22 am by Rocky
» Parliamentary integrity: Combating corruption requires parliamentary legislation
Today at 8:15 am by Rocky
» Al-Karaawi: America is trying to restrict Iraq
Today at 8:13 am by Rocky
» The State of Law coalition moves to form the local government in Diyala
Today at 8:12 am by Rocky
» The Sudanese and his battle against corruption.. Where is the fault with the government or with the
Today at 8:11 am by Rocky
» Prime Minister's Advisor: We will see the dollar fall on the black market soon
Today at 8:09 am by Rocky
» The Sunni blocs are resolute. The presidency of the Council is ours, away from Al-Halbousi
Today at 8:08 am by Rocky
» Al-Sudani discusses with a workers’ organization his government’s steps in this field
Today at 7:58 am by Rocky
» Parliament holds its session in the presence of 170 deputies
Today at 7:57 am by Rocky
» In the presence of Nechirvan Barzani and Al-Sudani... the State Administration Coalition holds an “i
Today at 7:55 am by Rocky
» The UAE company ADNOC resorts to Iraqi oil. Find out the reasons
Today at 7:53 am by Rocky
» The Iraqi Parliament votes to add an item to elect a president to its agenda
Today at 7:52 am by Rocky
» The Federal Court responds to an inquiry by Al-Sudani regarding the powers of the provincial council
Today at 7:51 am by Rocky
» Al-Sudani: It is necessary to attract women to work as a productive energy that cannot be disrupted
Today at 7:47 am by Rocky
» Zebari regarding targeting the Kormor field: a systematic attack on the economy of Kurdistan
Today at 7:46 am by Rocky
» Saudi Arabia tops, and this is Iraq's rank... a list of major suppliers of crude oil to South Korea
Today at 7:45 am by Rocky
» With a value of 125 million dollars.. Iraq is at the forefront of countries importing Iranian textil
Today at 7:44 am by Rocky
» More than a billion dollars in sales from the Iraqi Central Bank within a week
Today at 7:43 am by Rocky
» Al-Sudani stresses the need for the expertise of the International Labor Organization to legislate a
Today at 7:29 am by Rocky
» Including the return of 21 wanted persons.. The Iraq Money Recovery Fund counts its achievements in
Today at 7:27 am by Rocky
» The path to development is the criterion between true patriotism and political clowning.
Today at 7:25 am by Rocky
» The file of the Presidency of Parliament is on the state administration table... this evening
Today at 7:22 am by Rocky
» Director General of the International Labor Organization: Many challenges in the world of work and t
Today at 7:20 am by Rocky
» Al-Sudani: The world is witnessing crises that reflect negatively on the Arab and international peop
Today at 7:11 am by Rocky
» Prime Minister: Our government has provided great support for the success of the activities, program
Today at 7:08 am by Rocky
» Al-Asadi: Iraq places the social protection file among its priorities
Today at 7:07 am by Rocky
» Al-Sudani: Iraq is one of the first countries in the region to join the International Labor Organiza
Today at 7:05 am by Rocky
» In the presence of Al-Sudani and Barzani, the State Administration Coalition holds an “important” me
Today at 7:03 am by Rocky
» Appreciating the presence of Al-Sudani... Director General of the Arab Labor Organization: Here from
Today at 5:29 am by Rocky
» Prime Minister: Our government has provided great support for the success of the activities, program
Today at 5:28 am by Rocky
» Al-Sudani: The world is witnessing crises that reflect negatively on the Arab and international peop
Today at 5:24 am by Rocky
» The Parliamentary Development Institute organizes a workshop on the political role of the representa
Today at 5:22 am by Rocky
» With Arab and international participation. Tomorrow will be the start of the Fourth Baghdad Internat
Today at 5:21 am by Rocky
» OPEC Secretary General: The end of oil is not on the horizon
Today at 5:19 am by Rocky
» Closing a number of unlicensed offices and companies south of Baghdad
Today at 5:16 am by Rocky
» Repercussions of the bombing...intensive government movements to resume work in the “Kormor” field
Today at 5:15 am by Rocky
» In the presence of Al-Sudani...the opening of the Arab Labor Conference in its 50th session in Baghd
Today at 5:14 am by Rocky
» Al-Sudani: We are working on drawing future visions regarding the “green and digital” economic secto
Today at 5:13 am by Rocky
» Barzani after the Kormor attack: We are ready to coordinate with Baghdad to put an end to these atta
Today at 5:10 am by Rocky
» Al-Sudani directs the formation of an investigative committee into the circumstances of the Kormo fi
Today at 5:08 am by Rocky
» Bismayah is confused about the new electronic portal.. What about the landlord and the subcontracts?
Today at 5:07 am by Rocky
» Kurdistan Government: Loss of 2,500 megawatts of electricity due to targeting the Kormor field
Today at 5:06 am by Rocky
» Crisis in Kurdistan: 12-hour daily power outage and complaints of “confusion”
Today at 5:05 am by Rocky
» The Supreme Anti-Corruption Commission demands Nineveh for the contracts concluded by “Najm Al-Jubou
Today at 5:04 am by Rocky
» Al-Khanjar, Al-Samarrai, and Abu Mazen are hosted by Shaalan Al-Karim to discuss accelerating the se
Today at 5:03 am by Rocky
» Iraq asks the countries of the world to respond to its requests to extradite wanted persons: We have
Today at 5:02 am by Rocky
» “It is coming soon.” The Sudanese advisor sets the date for the referral of the Baghdad metro and th
Today at 5:01 am by Rocky
» Al-Mubarqa: Iraq reserves its full right to respond to the Australian behavior
Today at 5:00 am by Rocky
» Dollar exchange rates on Iraqi stock exchanges... recorded a decline, and this is the list
Today at 4:58 am by Rocky
» Mr. Al-Sadr supports the position of American university students
Today at 4:56 am by Rocky
» Iraqis are ranked 7th in the Arab world on the list of those most seeking immigration to America. He
Today at 4:55 am by Rocky
» Soon.. 3 new hospitals will open in Baghdad
Today at 4:52 am by Rocky
» Sponsored by Al-Sudani...the opening of the Arab Labor Conference in its fiftieth session in Baghdad
Today at 4:51 am by Rocky
» Al-Shammari chairs a meeting at the controlling headquarters to review the results of the security o
Today at 4:49 am by Rocky
» Arab Labor Organization: We commend Iraq's interest in the Arab Labor Conference
Today at 4:48 am by Rocky
» Al-Sudani: The development road project will provide many job opportunities
Today at 4:47 am by Rocky
» Sudanese advisor criticizes Kuwaiti analyzes regarding the development road project
Yesterday at 2:21 pm by Rocky
» Al-Mandalawi stresses the need to strengthen economic and trade cooperation between Iraq and Poland
Yesterday at 2:04 pm by Rocky
» Power maneuvers: America provides defensive weapons to Kurdistan in exchange for withholding from Ba
Yesterday at 10:26 am by Rocky
» Kuwait is drilling an oil well near Umm Qasr, towards Iraqi territory
Yesterday at 10:24 am by Rocky
» In the document... the first Iraqi ministry identifies the obstacles to changing the new official wo
Yesterday at 10:22 am by Rocky
» Italian Institute: Iraq is stuck in its own crises, including Baghdad’s efforts to undermine the “au
Yesterday at 10:21 am by Rocky
» The head of the Integrity Commission announces the holding of an international Interpol conference i
Yesterday at 10:18 am by Rocky
» Planning: Iraqi companies are not efficient in conducting the population census
Yesterday at 10:14 am by Rocky
» MM&C 4/25/24 National Bank of Iraq goes live with Temenos core banking and payments
Yesterday at 8:06 am by Rocky
» A banking official indicates a "danger" to Iraq by depriving more than half of its banks of dollars
Yesterday at 7:55 am by Rocky
» With the participation of the Association of Private Banks, investment opportunities are on the tabl
Yesterday at 7:45 am by Rocky
» Within a month... an Iranian border crossing recorded a noticeable increase in exports of goods to I
Yesterday at 7:44 am by Rocky
» The Association of Private Banks appreciates the efforts of the government and the Central Bank to c
Yesterday at 7:43 am by Rocky
» Al-Maliki's coalition presents a third candidate for the position of governor of Diyala
Yesterday at 6:57 am by Rocky
» Arab gathering: The Kirkuk problem is getting complicated and the Sudanese must intervene
Yesterday at 6:56 am by Rocky
» Next week.. a Kurdish delegation will visit Baghdad to meet with the Minister of Finance
Yesterday at 6:54 am by Rocky
» Under the pretext of salaries... Al-Party refrains from handing over port revenues to Baghdad
Yesterday at 6:53 am by Rocky
» Association of Banks: For the first time, we are witnessing a clear targeting of depriving half of t
Yesterday at 6:51 am by Rocky
» Parliament does not know the reason for the delay in sending the 2024 budget schedules: Voting takes
Yesterday at 6:49 am by Rocky
» Applicants for the 2024 Hajj are demanding that the Central Bank secure the dollar for them through
Yesterday at 5:09 am by Rocky
» Governmental and private banks will showcase their services tomorrow during Financial Inclusion Week
Yesterday at 5:08 am by Rocky
» Iraq's oil exports rise despite OPEC+ cuts
Yesterday at 5:06 am by Rocky
» A study explodes a "surprise"... Iraq is among the countries that export oil to "Israel": How is the
Yesterday at 5:04 am by Rocky
» Al-Araji emphasizes working to strengthen national identity
Yesterday at 5:02 am by Rocky
» Al-Sudani visits Saudi Arabia to participate in the World Economic Forum in Riyadh
Yesterday at 5:01 am by Rocky
» Iraq is talking about producing one million additional liters of gasoline
Yesterday at 4:59 am by Rocky
» The Council of Ministers approves the implementation of the Baghdad Metro project
Yesterday at 4:56 am by Rocky
» Minister of Commerce: We formed a joint economic committee with Türkiye
Yesterday at 4:55 am by Rocky