“Iranian confusion or impotence?”..a thorny relationship with Iraq and al-Sadr and Qaani escape the

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[size=52]“Iranian confusion or impotence?”..a thorny relationship with Iraq and al-Sadr and Qaani escape the threads of the game[/size]

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[size=45]The American "Washington Institute" has monitored the challenges of Iran's thorny relationship with Iraq, specifically regarding the issue of Sadrist leader Muqtada al-Sadr, noting that Tehran has begun to take a position of "non-interference" in Iraqi politics in the hope that internal divisions will benefit Iran, while there is a risk that they will cause Iraqi chaos threatens US efforts to secure some stability in global energy markets.[/size]
[size=45]The American report, translated by Shafak News Agency, considered; Iran is still looking with great fear at the step of Sadr’s withdrawal from the political process” and the recent dangerous security events, while its allies stumble in the coordination framework in forming the new government, adding that Iran’s fears are growing that the current Shiite conflict between Sadr and the framework forces will re-establish Forming the Shiite equation, in a way that is not commensurate with the Iranian role and its goals.[/size]
[size=45]The report stated; “The main problem that Iran faces in Iraq, specifically at the level of the restoration of the Shiite house, and the preservation of the Shiite-Shiite consensus within the ceiling of Iranian interests, stems primarily from several reasons, the most important of which is the failure of the Quds Force commander, Ismail Qaani, to fill the void left by Qassem. Soleimani,” noting that Qaani’s assumption of command of the Quds Force revealed that the Iranian regime was not ready to deal with an issue the size of Soleimani’s assassination, or even in determining Iran’s strategic priorities in Iraq after his assassination.[/size]
[size=45]The report spoke of Qaani's lack of a clear vision and perception of the Iraqi situation, with its interactions, currents and fluctuations, in addition to the lack of a supportive personality in Iraq, as was the case with the commander of the Popular Mobilization Forces, Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, and the role he played alongside Soleimani. In addition to the multiple roles of Iranian institutions operating in Iraq and their rivalry with the Revolutionary Guards, adding that they are variables that were reflected in one way or another on the role of Qaani first, and the Revolutionary Guards second, in how to manage the Shiite-Shiite conflict in Iraq.[/size]
[size=45]The report continued; This may explain Qaani's failure, through his repeated visits to Iraq, to ​​discourage Sadr from his steps, adding that Tehran recently chose to monitor the Iraqi situation, without directly interfering in it, because of the strong reactions shown by Sadr and his movement against the Iranian role, and the anti-Iranian slogans that followed. To Iran, it was raised by the October demonstrators in their recent protests in Baghdad earlier this month.[/size]
[size=45]In addition, the political disintegration witnessed by the pro-Iranian groups, and the multiplicity of discourses within the Shiite coordination framework, whether after al-Sadr withdrew from the political process, or after his sit-in was broken up inside the Green Zone, all indicate that Iran is no longer able to control the course of the current conflict, Not only between the chest and the frame, but also inside the frame.[/size]
[size=45]The report indicated that despite the success of al-Sadr in changing the rules of the political game, he still does not have the upper hand in Iraq so far. He pointed out, in this context, to the Shiite religious authority Kazem Al-Haeri's announcement of his retirement from the reference and traditional work, noting that the move could be interpreted as a great insult to Al-Sadr, who had previously been a student of Al-Hairi.[/size]
[size=45]The report also pointed to the escalation of doubts about the religious competence of Sadr and his leadership qualities, after the decision of Al-Hairi, and that Iran is trying to move forward with the project of Shiite internationalism or Shiite centralism linked to Qom and not Najaf, noting that the rise of an Iraqi Shiite cleric such as Al-Haeri urged his followers to support the guide The Iranian Republic, Ali Khamenei, undoubtedly serves Iran’s interest, and gives it hope to put an end to the historical Shiite conflict between the two marja’iyas of Qom and Najaf, and then reshape the Shiite world according to the Iranian centralism that recognizes Wilayat al-Faqih.[/size]
[size=45]The report continued; That al-Sadr's camp is still resisting, and that al-Sadr showed a strong reaction to the Iranian attempt to marginalize the al-Sadr family, and their centrality within the Iraqi Shiite house.[/size]
[size=45]He added that al-Sadr was trying to extract Iranian recognition of the centrality of Shiite representation, and he had hoped that Iran would resort to it after the assassination of Soleimani to manage the Iraqi situation, but Iran instead resorted to other local leaders, in addition to activating the role of Lebanese Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah inside Iraq.[/size]
[size=45]In addition, the report pointed out that Al-Sadr believes that the duality of “Qom and Najaf” must be preserved, and that Iran should not change this equation, and perhaps this is what explains his saying after al-Haeri’s retirement, that the Shiite authority is in Najaf, not Qom.[/size]
[size=45]However, the report stated that Iran is keen to sit on the sidelines and content itself with watching, at least for the time being, as despite Qaani's ineffectiveness and Iran's apparent inability to control Sadr or its allies in the framework, the current dynamics in Iraq, still lead One way or another, the Iraqi Shiite political community has been reshaped in favor of Iran. He added that Tehran is still betting on letting the internal Iraqi conflict take shape without exercising its influence on it.[/size]
[size=45]In addition, the report considered that Tehran could still use al-Sadr as a source of power in Iraq, especially if the Shiite situation was exposed to a common external threat. Iraq, within the framework that makes al-Sadr a partner and not a follower of Iran.[/size]
[size=45]International arena[/size]
[size=45]The report concluded by noting that these events in Iraq have many repercussions on US policy, especially with regard to oil supplies and nuclear talks, and made it clear that the administration of US President Joe Biden is facing a double danger from the crisis situation in Iraq; First, the chaos in Iraq could cause major fluctuations in oil supplies, which could undermine efforts to calm the US crude oil market ahead of the US mid-term congressional elections next November.[/size]
[size=45]The report continued; Most importantly, the faltering of al-Sadr’s movements may contribute to strengthening Iran’s power, at a sensitive geopolitical moment the United States is going through in Iraq and the Middle East, as the political situation in Baghdad could lead, in the short term, to an increase in Iranian influence, if The formation of a strong framework government that withdraws the pressure cards from the hand of al-Sadr.[/size]
[size=45]In the long term, this could encourage Iran to adopt a more aggressive approach to nuclear negotiations with the United States.[/size]
[size=45]The report concluded by saying; Iran seems not in a hurry to form a new government in Iraq, as it is awaiting the results of the nuclear negotiations with the United States. Their failure, or their continued stumbling, as is likely at the present time, will lead to the possibility of Iran using the Iraqi arena against the United States and its allies in the region. The option of political chaos may lead to stopping the flows of Iraqi oil to the global market, which would be perfectly suitable for Iran, because the rise in prices will provide an opportunity to export large quantities of oil supplies restricted due to US sanctions, to compensate for the global need, which the United States fears at the present time. The Iraqi Shiite house is still disintegrated, and the reasons for its internal explosion are still present.[/size]
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