The budget to last-minute settlements and determine the fate of the government and al-Halbousi

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[size=52]The budget to last-minute settlements and determine the fate of the government and al-Halbousi[/size]

[size=45]Baghdad / Tamim Al-Hassan[/size]
[size=45]It is believed that passing the budget, which is still in the hands of the Finance Committee in Parliament, will be a turning point for the last 6 months.[/size]
[size=45]Two fundamental variables that may explode after the approval of the budget are related to government policy and the form of party alliances.[/size]
[size=45]Shiites are worried about the intentions of Prime Minister Muhammad al-Sudani, if he is granted a budget for 3 years, then he will be freed from the restrictions of political forces and pass his idea of ​​​​ministerial change.[/size]
[size=45]Sunnis are also concerned that passing the budget may lead to the implementation of promises to replace Muhammad al-Halbousi, Speaker of Parliament, and to change the map of alliances within the parliament.[/size]
[size=45]Until now, the two parties seem calm and have sought in the last two days to send signals of agreement, while a former deputy describes what is happening as “fire under the ashes.”[/size]
[size=45]There are only days left for the dominant forces in parliament, and it is expected that the budget will be passed on the last day of this week, when they will have to face their fears.[/size]
[size=45]It is likely that the budget approval session - which has not been determined on any day so far - will witness settlements or last-minute agreements between the main forces in Parliament.[/size]
[size=45]Caveats are still hovering until this moment about the largest budget in the history of budgets after 2003 and the largest in terms of deficit.[/size]
[size=45]There are fears that seem realistic, according to deputies and experts, about the drop in the price of a barrel of oil, the imposition of taxes, and the bridging of the deficit.[/size]
[size=45]Finance Minister Taif Sami believes that amendments can be made to the budget in the next two years, 2024 and 2025, because the amendments now mean returning from scratch.[/size]
[size=45]Sami said during an interview with a number of media outlets yesterday that "the budget law will be approved for three years."[/size]
[size=45]And she indicated that “the budget for the current year is the basis, and it is possible to amend it in the other two years (2024 and 2025), by the Ministers of Finance and Planning, and submitting it to the Council of Ministers for consideration and sending it to the House of Representatives for ratification.”[/size]
[size=45]The government's presentation of a budget for the next 3 years for the first time sparked disagreements within the coordination framework, which supposedly discussed the budget for long hours before sending it to parliament.[/size]
[size=45]According to what is being circulated, some wings of the "framework" are reluctant to grant al-Sudani a budget for more than a year, for fear of powering him over Parliament.[/size]
[size=45]And the absence of guarantees in the use of budget funds amounting to 200 trillion dinars in the electoral campaign by the prime minister.[/size]
[size=45]It is also feared, according to what the political circles say, that passing the budget will prompt the Sudanese to carry out the ministerial reshuffle, which he speaks of and which the leaders of the “framework” deny.[/size]
[size=45]Last week, Al-Sudani hinted at an economic conference held in Baghdad that he might delay the government reshuffle because the ministers did not obtain the budget.[/size]
[size=45]On the other hand, the Sunni forces are waiting for the budget to be passed to replace Muhammad al-Halbousi, Speaker of Parliament, and to make adjustments to alliances, according to Haider al-Mulla, a leader in the Azm coalition, al-Halbousi's rival.[/size]
[size=45]Rahim al-Darraji, the former deputy, describes the atmosphere of relative calm among the political forces, after a series of objections to the budget, as "fire under the ashes."[/size]
[size=45]And the large blocs have tried in recent days to show an atmosphere of consensus until the budget is approved, such as holding meetings between the opponents and making pledges to implement the demands of the Sunnis.[/size]
[size=45]Al-Darraji said in an interview with (Al-Mada): “The disputes are continuing, and there is no guarantee yet that the budget will pass for 3 years.”[/size]
[size=45]He adds, "The parties may delay the day of the voting session until midnight, as happened with the recent election law, and at that time political deals and settlements will be concluded."[/size]
[size=45]Hussein Moanis, a deputy and leader in Kata’ib Hezbollah, had previously claimed that there were two copies of the budget, one announced and the second that would appear at the decisive time when voting.[/size]
[size=45]In turn, Aref Al-Hamami, a member of the Legal Committee in Parliament, told (Al-Mada): “Until now, there is no major political problem that could prevent the passage of the budget.”[/size]
[size=45]But al-Hamami, a member of the State of Law led by Nuri al-Maliki is expected to «pass the budget on the current May 20».[/size]
[size=45]The Deputy Speaker of Parliament, Shakhwan Abdullah, announced that the federal budget law would be voted on this week, without specifying the day.[/size]
[size=45]Abdullah said in a statement yesterday that «the Finance Committee is scheduled to complete its final report on the draft federal budget law for the years 2023, 2024 and 2025».[/size]
[size=45]He added, “The federal budget law will be voted on this week,” noting that “the House of Representatives will hold a special session to approve and approve the general budget, because it is an important law and citizens in all governorates of Iraq are waiting for it.”[/size]
[size=45]The State Administration Coalition, which includes the main forces in Parliament, had announced May 17 (the day after tomorrow, Wednesday) as the initial date for voting on the budget.[/size]
[size=45]Until now, the budget is still on the table for the Finance Committee's discussions, and Aref Al-Hamami, the deputy for Dhi Qar, says, "The province's deputies have an appointment from the Finance Committee to discuss the budget in a few days."[/size]
[size=45]Yesterday, the committee announced in a statement that it would host 3 ministers to discuss the requirements and obligations of their ministries in the new budget.[/size]
[size=45]"The committee is hosting today the ministers of electricity, health and defense," said the head of the Parliamentary Finance Committee, Atwan Al-Atwani, in the statement.[/size]
[size=45]And the committee had previously announced, last Saturday, in a statement, the completion of the discussion of the items of the 2023 general budget, in preparation for sending its final report to the Presidency of Parliament.[/size]
[size=45]The committee revealed in the statement that “transfers” were made in the budget allocations, without addressing the reduction of the deficit.[/size]
[size=45]Numbers and warnings[/size]
[size=45]The draft budget carries huge figures on the expenditures of the ministries, as 80% of the budget funds go to only 6 ministries, namely: Finance, Electricity, Health, Interior, and Defense, according to Kamal Kocher, a member of the Finance Committee.[/size]
[size=45]At a time when Nabil Al-Marsoumi, a professor of economics at Al-Maqel University in Basra, warns of Iraq's exposure to a "major financial and economic impasse, the features of which will begin next year" because of the financial burdens in the budget.[/size]
[size=45]And among what the decree revealed about those burdens, which totaled 130.660 trillion dinars, is that the salaries of employees on fixed staff = 59.814 trillion dinars, and the salaries of self-financing = 2.102, social welfare = 27.941 trillion dinars.[/size]
[size=45]In addition to the internal and external debt servicing installments = 18.962 trillion dinars, the expenses of oil licensing contracts with the expenses of transporting Kurdistan oil = 15 trillion dinars.[/size]
[size=45]As for the import of gas and electricity, it amounts to 4.841 trillion dinars, and electricity wages for the local investor = 2 trillion dinars.[/size]
[size=45]In addition, the expenses of the provincial council elections in the budget amounted to 345 billion dinars, after which the salaries of council members and the salaries of their protections, as well as expenses for fuel, cars, and others, will follow, according to what Al-Marsoumi says.[/size]
[size=45]Other warnings are issued against imposing new taxes to bridge the deficit of more than 60 trillion dinars, such as raising the price of a liter of gasoline.[/size]
[size=45]Members of the Finance Committee say that the decline in oil prices may lead to charging Iraq between 6 to 9 trillion dinars as an additional deficit.[/size]
[size=45]Oil experts such as Hamza Al-Jawahiry believe that it is better to set the price of a barrel of oil in the budget at 45 dollars instead of 70 for fear of a drop in prices.[/size]
[size=45]Al-Jawahiri warns that the western world has a main goal, which is to reduce oil prices globally, noting that that country cannot bear the price of a barrel more than 60 dollars because of the Ukrainian war.[/size]
[size=45]Unlike Al-Jawahiri, the Minister of Finance expects the price of a barrel of oil to rise to 83 dollars. "We seek not to lend from the central bank in the event that the oil price rises," says Taif Sami in the recent press conference.[/size]
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