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Established in 2006 as a Community of Reality

Welcome to the Neno's Place!

Neno's Place Established in 2006 as a Community of Reality


Neno

I can be reached by phone or text 8am-7pm cst 972-768-9772 or, once joining the board I can be reached by a (PM) Private Message.

Established in 2006 as a Community of Reality

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Established in 2006 as a Community of Reality

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    Moody's warns of the impact of the conflict between Israel and Hamas on Iraq

    Rocky
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    • Post n°1

    Moody's warns of the impact of the conflict between Israel and Hamas on Iraq Empty Moody's warns of the impact of the conflict between Israel and Hamas on Iraq

    Post by Rocky Sat 25 Nov 2023, 4:13 am

    Moody's warns of the impact of the conflict between Israel and Hamas on Iraq



    2023-11-24 22:58
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    Shafaq News/ Moody's credit rating agency maintained Iraq's CAA1 rating, warning that the escalation of the conflict between Israel and Hamas and the intervention of Iran and the United States may have fundamental repercussions on Iraq, if the war expands.
    The agency said that the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas remains primarily focused in Gaza. But its regional escalation, which is a “scenario with little possibility of being achieved,” will have economic repercussions for Iraq.
    The agency notes that any escalation in tensions in the Gulf would threaten to disrupt maritime transport routes through the Strait of Hormuz, which Iraq depends on for most of its oil exports.
    It maintained Iraq's rating at "CAA1" with a stable outlook, and said that the rating reflects Iraq's financial and external dependence on hydrocarbons, which leads to its significant exposure to oil price fluctuations and the risks of transitioning away from carbon.
    However, the agency says that Iraq's low reliance on external financing and the buffer provided by the recovery in foreign exchange reserves underscore a range of mitigating factors even if this scenario plays out.
    Iraq, which is rich in oil, suffers from deterioration in its infrastructure and roads as a result of decades of wars and the spread of corruption.
    Iraqi Prime Minister Muhammad Shiaa Al-Sudani confirms that one of his government's priorities is to rehabilitate the transportation and road infrastructure, as well as the dilapidated electricity sector.
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    • Post n°2

    Moody's warns of the impact of the conflict between Israel and Hamas on Iraq Empty These risks were expected by Moody's to the Iraqi economy due to the war in Gaza

    Post by Rocky Sat 25 Nov 2023, 4:45 am

    [size=47]These risks were expected by Moody's to the Iraqi economy due to the war in Gaza[/size]


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    November 25, 2023
    Revenues are based on oil in Iraq (Getty)
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    Moody's credit rating agency maintained Iraq's rating at CAA1, with a stable outlook. The agency said in a statement today that the classification reflects Iraq's financial and external dependence on hydrocarbons, which may lead to it being affected by fluctuations in [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] and the risks of transitioning away from carbon.
    Moody's said that [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] between Israel and Hamas" remains primarily focused in Gaza. Regional escalation of the conflict with the participation of Iran and the United States, a scenario that Moody's considers a low possibility at this stage, will have material repercussions for Iraq, through a number of channels.
    More importantly, any escalation of tensions in the Gulf would threaten to disrupt [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] through the Strait of Hormuz, on which Iraq depends for most of its oil exports.
    She said that oil's dominance of government revenues and exports would imply immediate and significant pressures on public finances and liquidity, with the overall impact depending on how long this disruption lasts. However, Iraq's low reliance on external financing and the buffers provided by rebounding foreign exchange reserves underscore a range of mitigating factors even in this scenario.
    In details,  Moody's confirmed that the rating reflects  Iraq's economic, financial and external dependence on the oil and gas sector, which leads to significant exposure to oil price fluctuations and the risks of the carbon transition. Very weak institutions and governance constrain the effectiveness of policies, the government's ability to respond to domestic and external shocks, and the competitiveness of the economy.
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    The agency's report on its website pointed out that the deep political division, Iraq's vulnerability to geopolitical tensions, and the increasing social pressures resulting from high youth unemployment rates and insufficient access to basic services, are all factors that expose Iraq to the risks of political events.
    The rise in global oil prices led to a major shift in Iraq's financial and external accounts, which supported the reduction of public debt and a noticeable recovery in the position of foreign exchange reserves at the Central Bank of Iraq to record levels. However, an expansionary three-year budget and limited reform will support a steady and renewed deterioration in fiscal metrics, further entrenching Iraq's structural vulnerabilities.
    Iraq's local and foreign currency ceilings remain unchanged, with the economy highly dependent on a single source of revenue, very high political risks and highly unpredictable institutions.
    The report said that Iraq's exceptionally high share of oil revenues in total government revenues (about 90%) supports the high sensitivity of the government's financial accounts to developments in global oil prices and oil production. In the absence of any stabilizing factors, the financial situation and liquidity fluctuate along with oil prices.
    According to Moody's, Iraq remains one of the oil and gas producers most exposed to the risks of the carbon transition due to the dominance of oil in government revenues and exports, in addition to limited capacity to adapt, and as a result of institutional, social and political obstacles to reform.
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    Iraq also remains among the countries with the lowest scores on corruption indicators, ranking 157 out of 180 countries surveyed in Transparency International's 2022 Corruption Perceptions Index. Weak public financial management means that the government is vulnerable to fiscal pressures, especially in times of oil price shocks (such as those seen in 2015-16 and 2020), when government revenues weaken and access to external financing is restricted.
    Domestic political and social tensions affect policy effectiveness and public finance outcomes, and progress is likely to remain limited in efforts to diversify the economy, enhance non-oil revenue collection, and address deficiencies in public financial management.
    The new government's agenda focuses on reducing corruption, enhancing economic opportunities, and improving public services. Although these policy areas are considered key to social and economic outcomes in Iraq, according to Moody's, the government's ability to pass structural reforms through a large, but unwieldy, parliamentary coalition is highly uncertain.
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