The fragile truce threatens the Sudanese-Biden meeting.. What do the two parties want on April 15?

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[size=52]The fragile truce threatens the Sudanese-Biden meeting.. What do the two parties want on April 15?[/size]

[size=45]On the 15th of this month, Monday, the clock will be set on the date of Iraqi Prime Minister Muhammad Shiaa Al-Sudani’s meeting with US President Joe Biden, at the White House in Washington, D.C., a long-prepared visit.[/size]
[size=45]It comes at a moment when the two countries are renegotiating their turbulent strategic relationship within a few months. Several files are on the table for bilateral talks between Sudanese and Biden, perhaps the most prominent of which is the “fragile” factional truce with the American forces in Iraq, in addition to the file of the presence of these forces, in addition to other controversial files, such as the flow of the American dollar to Iraq. The “Al-Qarn” website, an independent international research center, responded in an article to several questions about Sudanese’s visit to Washington, the files that will be discussed, and what the two parties want from these talks, which come at a time when the strategic relationship between the two countries is going through a sensitive moment.[/size]
[size=45]why now?[/size]
[size=45]According to the International Research Center, Al-Sudani had been keen on this meeting for more than a year, and its date was finally set after the White House stipulated it on the coordination framework (the coalition that formed the current Iraqi government). The center added that Biden is keen to avoid any increase in hostilities in the elections, at a time when Sudanese is trying to secure an agreement on the withdrawal of American forces before there is a possible change in the White House administration.[/size]
[size=45]The fate of the military relationship?[/size]
[size=45]There are relatively few US forces in Iraq, at this point there are about 2,500 fighters on an advise and assist mission against ISIS. However, the United States has plenty of assets in Iraq and neighboring countries that it has used to target Iraqi armed factions allied with Iran. The most controversial part of the relationship, according to the Century Center, is that the United States is acting without authorization in Iraq, even when responding to attacks against American forces.[/size]
[size=45]How much does America spend on Iraq?[/size]
[size=45]According to the center, the latest defense budget request for Iraq is $500 million for 2025, but when you add the State Department budget, aid activities, and indirect contributions through the United Nations and other international organizations, the true total annual amount the United States spends in or on Iraq , exceeding one billion dollars annually.[/size]
[size=45]Withdrawal or stay?[/size]
[size=45]So far, nothing has been announced about the future of US forces in Iraq, and recent comments from US administration officials indicate that the withdrawal “will take some time” and must be done “in an organized manner,” but negotiations will continue for a while. But Biden is unlikely to want to announce the withdrawal date, and does not want to appear as if he was forced to leave Iraq, at a time when the International Studies Center has suggested ending the American military mission in Iraq over a period of two years, if Biden wins the upcoming elections.[/size]
[size=45]What does Biden want from Sudanese?[/size]
[size=45]Overall, Biden does not want Iraq to be a headache for him on his way to a second term, and he believes that Al-Sudani may be able to help with that.[/size]
[size=45]Specifically, Biden wants a guarantee that the Iraqi government will prevent attacks by Iraqi factions against American forces and facilities inside Iraq and even Syria.[/size]
[size=45]According to the International Center, this guarantee is Biden's priority, and all other issues are secondary, such as preventing Iran from accessing the dollar in Iraq, and encouraging better relations between Baghdad and Erbil to prevent the disintegration of the Kurdistan Regional Government.[/size]
[size=45]What is the future of dollar flows?[/size]
[size=45]All revenues from Iraqi oil sales, which amount to more than $100 billion annually, are held in the Iraqi government’s account at the Federal Reserve Bank in New York, and the Iraqi Central Bank then transfers the dollars the government needs, some in cash, to Baghdad for distribution by the Ministry of Defense. Finance. The Biden administration has restricted these transfers in the past 18 months because it says the Iraqi financial system is too open to money laundering and illicit flows of dollars to Iran and other countries and individuals and entities subject to sanctions.[/size]
[size=45]The Iraqi government responded by suspending the licenses of some banks, pressing for documentation and review of dollar transactions, limiting cash transactions, and limiting the amount of dollars that banks provide for withdrawal, according to the International Studies Center.[/size]
[size=45]What does Sudanese want from Biden?[/size]
[size=45]As for Al-Sudani, according to the center, he wants two things in particular from Biden. The first is an indication of when the withdrawal of forces can begin, and some announcements that herald the end of the American military mission in Iraq.[/size]
[size=45]The presence of American forces is a domestic political responsibility for Sudanese, and he needs to show that he has made progress, through negotiations, toward preventing Iraqi factions from attacking American interests in Iraq. As for the second matter, Al-Sudani wants to avoid any further American action in Iraq, whether that is sanctions against Iraqi leaders and officials, pressure on Iraqi banks and financial activity, or air strikes against armed groups without permission from the Iraqi government.[/size]
[size=45]Al-Sudani also has a wish list that includes more American investment in Iraq and deals in arms sales, but it is unlikely to make it on the agenda this time, according to the “Al-Qarn” Center for International Studies and Research.[/size]
[size=45]What are the common interests?[/size]
[size=45]Iraq relies primarily on the United States for weapons maintenance and logistics, intelligence sharing, and access to dollars for its economy, and needs to maintain a positive relationship with the United States for its security, studies say.[/size]
[size=45]As for the needs of the United States from Iraq, they are not urgent, but Washington wants to prevent further empowerment of Iran in Iraq, and keeping American forces is considered a form of deterrence. Without American forces there, Washington is concerned that Iraq could suffer either from a security vacuum or – leading to the rise of an insurgency that spills over into the region – or Baghdad could become more militant and more aligned with Tehran, threatening American interests in the Middle East, according to the International Studies Center.[/size]
[size=45]What are the biggest obstacles?[/size]
[size=45]According to the “Al-Qarn” Center for International Studies, the biggest obstacle to US-Iraqi relations is a circular problem represented by Baghdad’s inability to prevent attacks against American facilities, and the United States’ military action on Iraqi territory in violation of Iraq’s sovereignty, so the presence of these forces will be a point. Disagreement until it is resolved. The current situation is unsustainable, and Washington understands this and is trying to find a solution on its own terms and timing.[/size]
[size=45]What are the risks of the meeting?[/size]
[size=45]Perhaps the most obvious danger, according to the International Center, is the possibility that the period preceding the Sudanese and Biden meeting will witness some kind of attack on American forces and installations inside Iraq, and possible American retaliation, which may lead to the visit being postponed or cancelled.[/size]
[size=45]However, if Al-Sudani returns from the meeting without any progress to show the withdrawal of forces, it will give his critics in Iraq more incentive to dismiss him or prevent him from assuming a second term in office, according to the center.[/size]
[size=45]Sudanese failure in this file will also lead to more attacks by armed groups against the United States, and there may be military actions that go further than before and seriously harm the bilateral relationship.[/size]
[size=45]As for Biden, any kind of concessions to the Sudanese could cause a negative reaction in Congress, which could prevent him from obtaining a second term, according to the “Al-Qarn” International Center.[/size]
[size=45]The Gaza war and the Sudanese-Biden relationship?[/size]
[size=45]The Gaza war adds more risks. According to the International Center, Al-Sudani wants the United States to distance itself from Israeli measures and stop providing support to Israel, which will make the United States less of a target in Iraq and Syria. While Biden undoubtedly prefers to focus on how to improve the bilateral relationship between Baghdad and Washington, he does not want Iraq to be drawn into other conflicts, least of all the Israel-Hamas war.[/size]
[size=45]But the major escalation in the Gaza war, especially its spread in Lebanon and Syria, would bring enormous risks to Iraq, and it may not be in the hands of either leader to prevent further conflict, according to the “Al-Qarn” International Center for Studies.[/size]
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