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Did the OPEC + plan fail?.. Experts talk about the reason for the drop in oil prices
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Economy News-Baghdad
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Added 04/27/2023 - 4:15 PM
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Economy News-Baghdad
Weeks after Saudi Arabia and 8 countries in the OPEC + coalition decided to voluntarily cut production, starting next May, oil prices witnessed a significant decline and hovered around $82 a barrel.
Accordingly, some reports indicated that the main goal of the decision of some of the largest oil producers in the world is to raise prices, and it seems that the sudden decision of the coalition did not bear fruit, claiming that the announcement of production cuts failed to ignite crude prices.
On April 2 (2023), prominent members of the OPEC + alliance announced a production cut of 1.6 million barrels per day, starting from May to the end of this year.
As a result of the decision, analysts expected crude oil prices to rise to $100 during the current quarter, but things have not gone as the OPEC+ producers had hoped so far, according to a report published by Bloomberg.
Brent crude is hovering around $82 a barrel at the present time, but oil prices at the end of March, i.e. the last day before Saudi Arabia and 8 countries from the OPEC + coalition announced the decision to cut voluntary production, below the level of $80, and the jump of $2 a barrel, were not Big payoff for cutting production by a factor of two.
On the other hand, the International Energy Agency warned OPEC of high oil prices, and in its opinion the move to cut production may harm the global economy and accelerate the shift away from fossil fuels to clean energy.
The Director of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Birol, said that the intervention may adversely affect the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, explaining that the rise in oil prices may lead to a decline in demand for fuel, and push consumers towards renewable electricity and other clean energy sources.
Birol highlighted - during an interview with Bloomberg - the attempt of oil producers to raise prices, warning OPEC that any action will accelerate the spread of electric cars.
Birol believes that the intervention of OPEC + was not beneficial to the recovery of the global economy, especially in global markets, adding that the global economy is going through a critical stage, and the last thing the world needs now is higher oil prices, and upward pressures on the inflation rate.
On the other hand, there is another opinion that says that OPEC +'s main goal was not to raise oil prices, but rather the real goal is to prevent its prices from falling from the levels at the time of the announcement of the decision (the level of 70 to 72 dollars), and to confront the continuous speculations in the energy markets, as well as to ensure Market stability.
Experts explained - in statements to the specialized energy platform - that there are many reasons that led to the recent decline in oil prices.
What is the real goal of the decision of some OPEC + countries?
The advisor and expert in the field of energy in the Sultanate of Oman, former Director General of Marketing at the Omani Ministry of Energy and Minerals, Ali bin Abdullah Al Riyami, believes that the recent cut was voluntary and sovereign by the countries that participated in the cut without interference from OPEC or OPEC +.
Al-Riyami explained that the decision was linked to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, because the participating countries are part of the signatories to the OPEC + agreement, and they are the Sultanate of Oman, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the Emirates, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Gabon.
Al-Riyami said - in exclusive statements to the specialized energy platform -: "I am sure that these countries coordinated among themselves before making this decision, and determined the quantities."
What is the real motive behind the voluntary OPEC+ cut and its impact on oil prices?
Advisor and expert in the field of energy in the Sultanate of Oman, formerly Director General of Marketing at the Omani Ministry of Energy and Minerals, Ali bin Abdullah Al Riyami
And he continued: "In the end, it is a preemptive step by these countries, amid concerns about the growth of the global economy, and the entry of large economies into recession. This concern still exists, in addition to fighting speculators who took short trading positions, which were negative with regard to the market."
In addition to the two previous reasons, Al Riyami added that there was fear of growth in demand in Asia, despite the presence of indications of a movement in oil demand in China, India and the rest of the Asian countries.
He said, "All these reasons combined were the real driver for these countries to take this decision, and it has nothing to do with OPEC + directly, although the results are related to OPEC and OPEC +."
As for Russia, it decided in advance to reduce production by about 500,000 barrels, but chose to continue the reduction until the end of this year, in partnership with these countries.
Al-Riyami believes that OPEC's decision did not show failure, on the contrary.
He said: "We saw encouraging news from the market on the issue of speculators, as they were greatly affected, especially since this decision was sudden and unannounced."
He added, "The targeted speculators failed to take their previous positions, and incurred huge losses as a result of this step, and they will wait before taking trading positions in the future, for fear of the existence of this type of decision, and that was a strong lesson from the participating countries to the short-sighted speculators."
This opinion was confirmed by Cyril Woodershoven, an expert on energy and the Middle East, saying that OPEC's decision was related to the stability of prices, which were declining, and to face constant speculation in the market.
He said - in exclusive statements to the specialized energy platform -: "Even if the main motive for OPEC is to stabilize the markets and prevent prices from falling, the other, more obvious reason is to show strength in the market .. For all reasons, geopolitical and economic, OPEC's strength has increased in general in Oil and gas markets.
He added, "OPEC's strategy is clear. Its goal is to stabilize market power, increase its market share, and maintain prices at levels that do not interfere with economic growth in the rest of the world, while ensuring that its necessary revenues do not decrease."
"Looking at the markets now, it can be said that OPEC was right in making this decision, as the short uptrend in prices has begun to reverse," he added.
He pointed out that the continued economic growth fears, the banking panic in the United States, and the destructive energy transition policies taken by the European Union and the United States, do not lead to an increase in the demand for oil.
Despite China's growth, the data in general is far from the optimistic scenarios that analysts had hoped for, so that some may indicate that OPEC's sudden move to take an additional production cut decision has put Russia in a difficult predicament, according to Woodershoven.
From his point of view, stability or potential shortages in the market will lead to higher prices for Russian oil, which will be a concern in light of the sanctions imposed by the United States and the European Union and the price ceiling.
Woodershoven believes that the stability of oil prices at current levels, with a discount on Russian oil, is a lifeline for Moscow.
As for the strategic expert in the field of energy, Shuaib Botmin, he believes that OPEC did not aspire from the voluntary reduction decision to reach the price of a barrel to 150 dollars, in order for us to judge the decision as a failure.
He said - in exclusive statements to the energy platform -: "The price of benchmark Brent crude reached $87 this month, which is a price favored by OPEC, and it is looking forward to stability around it before the decision enters into force."
And he continued: “On the other hand, Brent crude prices are still above $80 after announcing the decision of some OPEC countries to cut production by 1.6 million barrels per day, starting in May, and the market has maintained a fairly good level, and this shows once again that the organization has taken a proactive decision.” to ensure price stability.
Botmin added that prices approached $87 as a reflection of the decision, after falling below $75 a month ago, and this is considered a success, albeit a short one, since prices improved before the decision came into effect.
He continued, "The downward curve that prices have followed in the past days does not reflect the real situation in the market for the entire year. Rather, there are variables that may drive an increase in demand for energy sources."
According to Botmin, among these variables is the introduction of the decision to cut in just days, with the US stockpile dropping sharply for decades, at approximately 369 million barrels on April 14 (2023), and expectations of increased demand in China and even India, which is one of the largest economies in the world. The world, in addition to the possibility of returning consumption levels to pre-Corona crisis, especially since current prices increase the appetite of consumers, especially the United States, European Union countries and Asia, and this would enhance market stability during the coming months.
What is the real motive behind the voluntary OPEC+ cut and its impact on oil prices?
He said that the perceived decline in prices - currently - was affected by inflation levels with its negative repercussions on demand, but there is an important thing to note, which is that the OPEC + alliance does not want prices exceeding $ 105 in the medium and long term.
From his point of view, high prices do not serve the strategic interests of the coalition countries, explaining that the fact that a barrel of oil has reached astronomical prices allows the consumer to search for other, less expensive alternatives, and encourages governments to invest in alternative energy projects, thus eliminating a market share of oil and gas.
Botmin added that this threatens an abundance of supply, and prices may fade to less than $28, as happened in 2014.
He said, "The other thing is that any sharp rise in prices serves the oil industry in the United States, as shale oil and gas companies increase their pumping of huge investments to increase production and make a lot of money, and this is what happened before 2018.. The rise also stimulates major oil companies." They have to invest in fields that they would not have reached before, as their yields now have a kind of risk, and with prices exceeding $110, these companies increase exploration in other areas, which creates an oversupply, which would negatively affect prices.
Botmin indicated that the OPEC + alliance is looking for price stability at $90, to protect its investment interests, and make it a moderate player in the market, and then the coalition countries have the full interest in stability on the one hand, and trying to make customers able to buy their products at an appropriate price on the other hand, This balance gives confidence to the consumer as well as to the producer.
What are the reasons for the low prices?
In the opinion of the expert on energy and the Middle East, Cyril Woodershoven, the recent decline in oil prices is due to the fact that the market is still not subject to the issue of supply and demand, but to turmoil; Whether in China, Iran or banks.
He believes that the overall impact of these disruptions is currently very low, so pessimism about them may deteriorate the market, explaining that expectations and speculation are driving prices and futures down.
The second reason, he noted, is Western consumers' fear of the potential additional costs of the energy transition, higher taxes, and the threat of a financial crisis.
"In general, the West is facing rising bills, and they will continue to rise until there is a backlash," he said.
He also added that potential political turmoil in the European Union, and fear even of the ongoing political turmoil in the United States - represented by the crises between current US President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump - do not lead to positive results with regard to energy prices.
While the strategic expert in the field of energy, Shoaib Botmin, pointed to 4 reasons that led to the decline in prices in recent weeks, the first of which is the fragility of the wheel of industrial growth within the European Union.
This means that there is a kind of paralysis of energy demand in the industrial sector, especially within the European Union. There are huge companies within the Union that have become convinced that the continuation of their activity is linked to the extent of securing energy supplies, and this confidence has become somewhat fragile, and they have become aware that one of the effective solutions to protect Its investments are to transfer some of its huge consumption subsidiaries to China, India and America, where energy prices are low.
He explained that the Gulf countries and the Middle East will be an attractive destination if they take advantage of it intelligently, but China and India enjoy better luck, given the high growth rates, as the two countries buy oil and gas at discounted prices from Russia, which allows competition with Europe, as the time for Russian gas is reduced through Pipes are a thing of the past, and the time of liquefied gas carriers and the exorbitant cost has become a reality that worries the crisis of high energy bills in Europe.
He said, "The best proof of this is the statement of the CEO of the German petrochemical company (BASF), during the past week, when he said that its 30 branches located in China enabled it to cover the losses it incurred in Europe, as a result of the crazy prices of energy, in addition to the high cost of labor. It is the same approach taken by the auto giant Volkswagen.
He added that the losses incurred by companies in Europe with the high inflation rates as a result of the rise in energy prices contributed to the relative reduction of the demand for oil and gas, noting that the European Union’s consumption of natural gas during the year 2022 decreased by 15%, from 400 billion cubic meters to 340 billion cubic meters. billion.
The second reason is the high temperatures during the winter season, and keeping pace with Europe's policy towards energy transition, while reducing the consumption of fossil fuel sources.
The European Union countries were able to provide huge amounts of wind and solar energy, and together achieved the largest percentage in electricity generation, 23%, ahead of nuclear energy and natural gas, with rates of 21.9% and 19.9%, respectively.
These natural conditions made it possible to save more than 10 billion dollars that were directed to the consumption of natural gas.
These conditions are in line with the strategy of these countries represented in reducing dependence on Russian energy sources.
As for the third reason, it is the fear of contagion from the bankruptcy of the Silicon Valley Bank to other banks, and its direct impact on the profitability of continuity, and thus curbing energy consumption.
Botmin said - in statements to the specialized energy platform - that the repercussions of the bankruptcy of the American bank are still hanging over the banking atmosphere in the entire world.
He continued, "As you know, the oil and gas industry is costly, and requires huge and thoughtful investments, especially as it is subject to systematic financing that complies with laws related to banks, and any indication of bankruptcy affects decision-makers, and forces shareholders to wait or even temporarily abandon financing to protect financial interests.. I think that This situation is circumstantial and time will pass, when the global economy returns to recovery.
As for the last reason, it is the low expected growth rates in many countries, which is mainly due to the high rates of inflation in global economies, saying that the conditions fueled the financial situation of governments, as well as energy-consuming companies, which had to reduce the pace of production, and the lack of productivity reduced demand. The timer is on power, which is a missing consumption quota.
While the advisor and expert in the field of energy in the Sultanate of Oman, former Director General of Marketing at the Omani Ministry of Energy and Minerals, Ali bin Abdullah Al Riyami, said that oil prices, after the decision of the countries that participated in reducing production, rose slightly, after it was at the $70 level before the decision was taken.
It seems to some that this decision was taken to raise prices, but it was not the real goal, according to Al-Riyami.
He said, "If we go back to about the previous 4-5 months, we notice that although prices were at the $70 level, there were hikes, before these countries decided to cut production, and although they were limited and small hikes, the general trend towards oil prices is towards Height"
He added, "The pace increased with the announcement of these countries to cut production, and then this gives an indication that the real goal was not to raise prices, because they were rising, and if countries had been patient, they would have reached $80."
He said: "When the countries announced this reduction, prices rose directly within 4-5 days, reaching within the range of $85, and now we are witnessing a natural and logical price correction, and this is evidence that the goal was not to raise prices. If the goal was to raise prices, it would have been possible for prices to continue to rise." However, it decreased because it was linked to the same reasons related to the fear of major economies and the global economy entering a recession, and fears of the strength of the dollar.
What is the real motive behind the voluntary OPEC+ cut and its impact on oil prices?
And he continued: “At the present time, the dollar is strong, because central banks, by fighting inflation, raise the interest rate, but they have negative future factors, and the fear here is the continuation of raising the interest rate, and it may affect the volume of loans that can enter the upper part of some producers, This is another issue and it has other economic reasons, but the recent cuts are related to market correction, and not strong supply and demand in Asia, and this was unexpected, and then the market corrected this situation, and we are in the range of 80 and 85 dollars.
Will oil prices rise with the entry into force of the cut?
Cyril Woodershoven, an expert in energy and Middle East affairs, said that there may be a price reaction when the decision to cut production enters into force next May, but it will be very weak.
At present, the focus is on the economy, political turmoil and the continued rush in the US and Europe towards energy transition issues, and the market seems to be constrained by concerns, which he sees as unrealistic.
He pointed out that with insufficient investments to deal with future demand, and the difficulty and insufficiency of providing energy supplies from renewable energy sources, the OPEC + alliance can relax, as it will lead Western economies and perhaps India and China to a short-term deficit and push up prices.
The future option for OPEC may be to increase production, but this is also an Achilles' heel, as the potential shortage cannot be met with the current spare capacity.
While the consultant and expert in the field of energy in the Sultanate of Oman, former Director General of Marketing at the Omani Ministry of Energy and Minerals, Ali bin Abdullah Al Riyami, expected that prices would hover around 80 to 85 dollars before the end of this year, and the markets would not witness a significant decline to levels below 75 dollars, and with This did not rule out the occurrence of this, but the justifications - currently - are not strong for a drop in prices below $ 75, and there is no justification for a rise in prices to more than $ 85.
He said - in exclusive statements to the specialized energy platform -: "There are no major economic justifications or related to supply and demand that could lead to a rise in oil prices.. From my point of view, the Chinese preliminary indicators - the most oil-importing countries - especially industrial ones, are not encouraging to increase demand." On oil from China, despite the boom in travel in Asian countries, and China in particular, other economic sectors, such as agriculture and real estate, have strong indicators of growth in Asia..and therefore we do not see any significant growth that could lead to demand for oil steadily.”
On this basis, he believes that prices in the current situation are appropriate for the commercial and economic movement in Asia, especially China.
For his part, the strategic expert in the field of energy, Shoaib Botmin, indicated that the oil market is still affected by multiple factors, the most important of which is the slow growth rates since the Corona crisis, and the repercussions of the Russian-Ukrainian war, which took on geopolitical and economic dimensions par excellence, and the oil markets were affected, and became trapped in some variables. unexpected, so it is difficult to predict prices.
He said: “There are some future indicators that may increase the demand for oil and gas, including signs of economic recovery in the Asian markets, and the gradual return to industry within the European Union, and the entry into force of the decision to reduce production from some OPEC + countries will contribute to price stability in the future.” ".
Among these indicators, climate change with unprecedented high temperatures during the winter season with a significant decrease in rainfall, which was reflected in the filling of dams and rivers, especially within the European Union, and would directly affect the profitability of hydroelectric power production within the bloc.
With the decline in electricity generation from hydroelectric and solar energy during the current year, the demand for fossil fuel sources will increase.
And he went on to explain: "The decrease in the water level in the rivers will weaken the capabilities of many countries to cool the nuclear reactors used to generate electricity, and we may live the same scenario as last year, forcing countries to resort to fossil fuel sources."
In addition to these indicators, there are some factors that will affect oil prices, including a change in the European Union's policy to fill gas stocks before winter, which will increase the demand for oil.
He expected Russia to voluntarily take a unilateral decision to cut production in order to reach the level of $100 or more, to cover budget costs, and serve the new approach with the Arab countries under the BRICS umbrella.
Botmin also referred to the Iranian-Saudi rapprochement, which would unify visions in global oil policy, and unify the consensual vision to maintain prices above $90, which spares Iran some Western pressures in the nuclear file.
Finally, Botmin highlighted the significant decrease in the US strategic stockpile, which requires appropriate quantities to refill from 367 million barrels - currently - to 700 million barrels, and the summer driving season in the United States increases energy consumption.
Source: Energy website
Views 81
Added 04/27/2023 - 4:15 PM
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